Limiting Factor for Ebike explosion?

[katou]

In chemistry (which I failed 3x so I know what I'm talking about) the limiting factor in a reaction is that thing which is in shortest supply. If the limiting factor is provided, the reaction rate increases massively.

What is the limiting factor in the Ebike world? What one thing, if added or changed, (in the real world - no vaportech - eestor) would make ebikes huge?

Is it small transmissions for RC motors? Is it motor tech at all? Is it battery cost? Is it restrictive laws? Is it the lack of an Ebike racing league? The fact that most commercial units look like ass?

What's your opinion? My bet is on battery cost. Although the commercial units DO look like ass.

Katou

[spinningmagnets]

I believe there will come a tipping point soon. Most people I meet have never heard of an electric bicycle, much less SEEN an actual E-bike. I know Ed Begley had an E-bike on one of the episodes of "living with ED", but most people have not seen that show either. Ed's a D-list actor and a green advocate. My hats off to him, but I still have yet to see a really big celebrity riding an E-bike.

If NiCD and Lithium batteries came down in price and E-bikes were well-known, they would really take off right now. Hub kits will be sold out again when fuel prices spike up as they have in the past. I think non-hub adaption kits will boom then...

[gwhy!]

Is it small transmissions for RC motors? Is it motor tech at all? Is it battery cost? Is it restrictive laws? Is it the lack of an Ebike racing league? The fact that most commercial units look like ass?

What's your opinion? My bet is on battery cost. Although the commercial units DO look like ass.

Katou

Restrictive laws ( really bad here in the UK )
Off the shelf e-bikes dont look to good unless you pay big big money
battery cost,, I think is not so much of a problem if you sort the other 2 things out.

[Metallover]

There are many things. Cost is big.

There is no US company with a great marketing plan/advertizing selling e-bike parts. Look at castle creations in the RC business. They established a great reputation, made great, low cost products, advertized and got their names out there at RC races/flying events, and made advances in small scale brushless technology. They are a step ahead of the rest too. Great job CC.

Battery technology hasn't been here until recently. LiFe/a123 is probably the answer. The way I see it, to sell ebikes to the normal user, you need to have great capaicty, lots of power, and foolproof charging. You need to be able to give an ebike to a retired 65-year old widow and have her not ruin the thing. LiFe will need to be a simple if not simpler then SLA batteries.

Another big thing is laws and restrictions. Who wants to have a 250w e-bike? For e-bikes to take off there needs to be little/no restrictions. A speed limit such as 15mph on bike paths, regular speed limits on the street, and general e-biking common sense when passing pedestrians/dealing with traffic would be enough.

As of now there aren't too many laws on electric vehicles, and as these laws are created, we EV owners need to fight to make them fair like the hunters protect their second amendment.

Luckily for me I live in a small midwestern town where you can ride unlicensed quads on the streets. A couple towns over we went into the bar, the only business open on sunday, and inside was the mayor/policeman having a drink.

[Lock]

See also here:
http://endless-sphere.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=15&t=15296

Main limiting factor, same as pedal bikes... lack of safe infrastructure (aka too many large high speed vehicles driven by idiots)
tks
Lock

[Kurt]

I think they wont take off until there is no better alternative. At the moment we have cars, trains and buses . Ebikes for most people would be as a form of short distance transport. Predominantly city work trips lets say around 15km max.

On a hole most people are very lazy.

On a ebike you have to hold your self up over the handle bars. Brace your arms for bumps just in general takes a lot more concentration and effort and balance than just sitting in a car or bus. Then you have the cold wind in your face or hot sun on your body. It cold rain or you could be splashed with mud all that crap.

Most people want a car with a seat that's like a sofa and soft upholstery or leather to touch that feels nice. A insulated and air conditioned heated cabin. Perhaps some airbags for safety and a mp3 player. Most people will turn there nose up if the car doesn't have power assisted steering. What will they think about wrestling with a ebike all the way to work.

I like my ebikes and have a lot of fun with them but the only way I see ebikes really taking off is if there is no more oil to run cars and buses. Then people will be forced to make a compromise.But even then they are just going to want cars with a different power source.

People have high expectations from there transportation now days.The basic format of the ebike just might be to primitive for people's current expectations. But if there isn't an alternative they will take it over walking.

Its just like how many people would have a cold shower in the morning over a hot one? But if there wasn't an alternative they would have to .

kurt

[vanilla ice]

Pussification is I think what they call it..

[02jze]

In Australia everyone under 25 will have to ride ebikes as they will soon lise their licence if they havent already.
Like me i love my ebike because it gets me places i couldnt or wouldnt normally go and i have not been legally allowed to drive for 4 years now so getting a ebike is like having my independance back...

[hozozco]

See also here:
http://endless-sphere.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=15&t=15296

Main limiting factor, same as pedal bikes... lack of safe infrastructure...

Certainly a big problem is that very few people know ebikes exist, or how good they are. Cost is certainly a problem but I think that until there is better infrastructure people are not going to be riding on the roads around here.

I can travel to work and back on 95% bike paths. I had to cycles somewhere else recently on the road without even a bike lane. I was scared! If I didn't have such good bike paths there is no way I would be riding to work.

There's not an easy/cheap fix either.

[katou]

Seems like people are talking about what would be necessary for widespread PUBLIC acceptance, and that is a pretty reasonable reading of what I wrote. What I am interested in, is what would be the limiting factor for YOU, the ebike builders.

What single impediment, if removed, would open things right up? What's the pebble in your ebike shoe?

Or to put it another way, you all know people who think your ebikes are cool. Smart, good looking, wonderful people, that probably, given the opportunity, would like one of their own.

What's holding them back? I still think it's battery cost.

[katou]

Forgot the explanation:
9c kit from ebikes.ca = 350$ for front wheel
-kit includes everything, except battery, minus cost for CA

36V 9Ah lithium manganese battery 525$

If someone showed me those figures, I'd just cancel the whole order. The battery is getting up to 2x the motor and controller cost!

I understand why, but when I tell people about the battery cost, the excited look they had in their eye goes away.

[heathyoung]

Cost and poor energy density of batteries. Add to the fact stupid legislation and you have a pretty major limiting factor.

[liveforphysics]

#1. 99% of them are slugs for geeks. People don't want that image.

#2. I've never shown anyone my bike that didn't say they instantly wanted one. The hold up? Battery cost.



Fast e-bikes can ride just fine in traffic. Infrastructure is fine IMO.

The problems IMO are the geeky image that comes to mind when a regular person hears the word "ebike", and the cost of the batteries.

[Lock]

...cost of batteries...
You guyz are tapping about cost equivalent to five-six months-worth of public transit monthly passes...
Peanuts
Lock

[dogman]

For those that would ride an Ebike. It's battery cost. Getting the whole kit to cost less than $500 is key, but not by providing sla's. Once gas is 4-5 bucks again though, then lithium looks cheap even at todays price. Funny thing is, gas, even at 4 bucks, is insignificant when adding up the real cost per mile of a car. Even the $3,000 ebike comes in as cheap as a small motorcycle, but the motorcycle is usually faster.

The trouble is, bike riders are comparing the cost to pedaling a bike, which is sort of free. Actually, food is more costly than charging a bike, but hey, you are eating it anyway, and more tastes good if you pedal it off.

For most people though, it's the little things that stop them. Little cement trucks, humvees, 4 cab pickups, that try to kill em daily if they ride a bike. Same stuff that keeps em from riding a 150cc scooter or motorcycle. Yesterday a one ton truck ran a stop sign on me. Suddenly there I was yelling at him through the drivers window as I passed him. They don't expect 30 mph out of a bike, so you better be ready for THEM.

Then there's the fact that work is at least 15 miles away, weather is perfect for a bike only 6 months of the year, hard to carry stuff, commute time doubles, etc etc. At least in the typical US city of more than 50,000 people.

For me the ebike hobby is almost free, since I put ten bucks in my pocket every day I ride to work. Free motors for reviews doesn't hurt any either!