Electric vehicles, poor performance, high cost, vaporware

[Joseph C.]

Tesla? Forget it! They get government grants to build cars that are well over the 50 grand mark and even double that.

I think you will find that their 'grant' is actually a low interest loan which has performance stipulations and must be paid back in full.

[E-racer]

Tesla? Forget it! They get government grants to build cars that are well over the 50 grand mark and even double that.

I think you will find that their 'grant' is actually a low interest loan which has performance stipulations and must be paid back in full.

Well said Joseph!

I think you will also find that they have drawn less than half of the 528 million dollar LOAN. There is little to no question that they will pay it back. Tesla supplied 30,000 battery packs to Daimler alone last year. I would like to see someone try to start a car company without a LOAN... or any business for that matter. BTW 50K for a car isn't that ridiculous. People pay more than that for SUV's, Luxury Cars, Performance Cars, and Trucks all the time. The reason Tesla will succeed as a car company is because they are aiming at educated high end clientele that are willing to pay the 50K+ in my opinion this is why volt and leaf sales are low. The average economy car buyer is buying a car for just that "economy. "

[Hillhater]

Tesla are in a very risky position.
They have a business based on a battery pack developed around a particular cell chemistry and configuration.
At the rate battery systems are being developed and brought to market, they risk being left high and dry at any moment with an outdated technology. They may be selling to 3rd parties currently, but a technology change could easily draw those customers elseware very quickly.
They would be in a better situation if you were currently able to actually buy & drive a Tesla car ! ?

[E-racer]

Tesla is getting the Model S perfect before delivery. They will not make a complete ass of themselves by rushing a car to market like Fisker. There will be 5,000 Models S deliveries by the year end 2012 without a doubt in my mind. It is so strange to me that so many people on a forum dedicated to EV's is so against the success of the worlds only quality BEV manufacturer. Some of us spend $4K+ on our hobbies every year. A $50-100K electric car that will last as long or longer than competing ICE luxury cars is not that big of a deal.

This is s great excerpt from a very good article!

"To Musk, the conventional thinking about the EV market is one reason why so many people fail to grasp Tesla Motors' potential. At the moment, fewer than 13 million cars and small trucks are sold in the U.S. each year. About 2% of those are pure electrics or hybrids. The accepted wisdom, Musk argues, is that "there's a market for electric cars and all electric cars compete against each other for that market. But that's just the wrong paradigm." Musk does not believe the Model S or X will compete with other EVs for dominion over a tiny slice of the consumer market. Models S and X will instead compete with gas-burning BMWs and Lexuses. And because Musk is assured his EV technology will prove superior in performance (and emissions), it will thus succeed."

http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/164/tesla-motors

[veloman]

That was a good article on Tesla Motors. Risky bet, but I like Elon's style, sounds like a real entrepreneur.

[mistercrash]

I was not really talking about one company in particular being successful or not, I doubt very much that EVs will ever become mainstream if the only options are only offered to the "educated high end clientèle'' that can buy 50k and 100k vehicles without even thinking about it, like it's not that big of a deal. I'm not about one company in particular, ever since I got interested in EVs, I'm more about EVs completely taking over. I don't think offering 100k cars and 10k bicycles is what is going to make that happen. I'm probably dreaming way too much by thinking that EVs should be offered in a high quality format that everyone can afford. The way some people talk sometimes in here, EVs will forever stay a niche market for the high end clientèle. So what do you call the billions of people that are not part of the high end clientèle? I guess we'll just take the bus.
Hey I don't wish for any of the present and future EV companies to fail, I want them to succeed, with all my heart. I just get very skeptic of their future when I look at the price of the products they offer. Anyway, I'll leave the high end clientèle talk more on the subject and will keep my uneducated comments to myself, I gotta a bus to catch.

[Hillhater]

...I doubt very much that EVs will ever become mainstream if the only options are only offered to the "educated high end clientèle'' that can buy 50k and 100k vehicles...
.... So what do you call the billions of people that are not part of the high end clientèle? I guess we'll just take the bus...

Yes, ..but with any luck it will be an electric bus !!

PS, I have just realized that much of my commuting to the city has been by EV for many years... eletric trains !

[E-racer]

Just remember we are talking about business and industry here. Target market demographics do not lie. The low profit margin associated with the low cost of economy cars will not be able to facilitate the development of electric vehicles. High end clientele are currently the demographic that are willing to purchase a premium product such as an electric luxury car. The success of these high end cars is what gains the economy of scale for Tesla. Essentially this is the only logical approach to achieve the goal. Please don't take offense to my comment. Also, a fully loaded Nissan Maxima is close to $40K these days. The $50K base Model S starts to become appealing when you approach it with that logic.

[Hillhater]

.... The low profit margin associated with the low cost of economy cars will not be able to facilitate the development of electric vehicles. ....

If battery performance keeps improving and prices keep droping ( as even Musk has stated) then there is no reason why a low cost EV range could not be a reality.
Everybody needs transport, even in a recession,...but the high end "luxury" market is both much smaller and much more vulnerable to the state of the economy .

[Dauntless]

Tesla are in a very risky position.
At the rate battery systems are being developed and brought to market, they risk being left high and dry at any moment with an outdated technology. They may be selling to 3rd parties currently, but a technology change could easily draw those customers elseware very quickly.

If only that was as great a danger as it should be. That's a complicated battery setup, but it was required to make it suitable for the use in the vehicle. Everything that seems to threaten the status quo fizzles, sometimes literally. The electric car seems to be the toughest battery issue to confront. All these new battery developments are a mite too much smoke and mirrors just yet.

I think a good battery that obsolesces theirs will probably be easy to adapt to as the number one reason it's better, they might even be able to adopt it FIRST. I kind of think it's a shame that they're probably not losing sleep over there, which means they're probably not working so hard on their own replacement.

They would be in a better situation if you were currently able to actually buy & drive a Tesla car ! ?

Yeah, that would put ME in a better position, too. Let's see how it goes with their little $50k "Economy Car" edition. The question is, will there be people ready to spend $30k more than they can have the Leaf for if it's for a NONSPECTACULAR Tesla? Or maybe the S is not all THAT unspectacular, there is a bit of a Jaguar look to it. They collect $100 million from Toyota for work on the new electric RAV4, there's a new Roadster in 2014 and an SUV before that, I'm thinking there's some pretty fair economics on their side.

I for one am happy to see the rich people pay for all the development. If an affordable car can't be built yet, as long as the high end market holds up then the R&D money continues. Affordability should resolve itself, it's just a question of how long it will take.

People mentioned "Subsidies," etc., my understanding is they raised over $300 million from investors, $70 million from Elon Musk, then were approved to borrow, at interest, $465 million from the Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing Loan Program. There were solid sounding companies rejected, so I don't think this was a rubber stamp loan.

[TylerDurden]

"Affordability" is defined by consumer expectations of a feature-rich vehicle, similar to the econobox gassers with airbags, power windows, AC, etc.etc...

Any company must enter the market where the most money can be made, while the market and infrastructure develop. Analogy: If you were establishing a farm in new territory, wouldn't you plant your seeds in the small patch of best soil and keep yourself alive while you cleared the large areas where yield is lower?

IOW, manufacturers need to "make it on margin rather than volume" until the batteries, infrastructure and consumers are ready. At that point, widespread acceptance drives manufacturing, distribution, sales, service - an EV economy.

So, while "free-market" advocates may grouse about subsidies/loans to the folks making EVs for the elite, the long-term benefit is more affordable transport for all, as oil will not be getting cheaper. The benefits of more affordable transportation ripple through all aspects of society, just as the deficits of higher prices for oil do.

[E-racer]

Well said tylerdurden. I wish I could write that eloquently.

[Hillhater]

, manufacturers need to "make it on margin rather than volume" until the batteries, infrastructure and consumers are ready..

Thats the theory, but i doubt Tesla had much of a margin ..(if any).. on the Roadster, and they wont be able to cream "ferrari" levels of margin on the $50k "S" model ! They will need Volume to get a return from that.
I also doubt, that they would have been able to milk a company like Daimler for heavy margins on those packs they assembled for them.

[TylerDurden]

...i doubt Tesla had much of a margin ..(if any).. on the Roadster, and they wont be able to cream "ferrari" levels of margin on the $50k "S" model ! They will need Volume to get a return from that.
I also doubt, that they would have been able to milk a company like Daimler for heavy margins on those packs they assembled for them.

I can't disagree, but lean more on the point that manufacturers will enter the most receptive segments of the market. e.g.: Pulsar before Swatch before dollar-store watch.

Or as the oft-cited gag goes: "Why did Jesse James rob banks?... Because, that's where the money is."

[hillzofvalp]

Grid tying the cars may not seem very attractive for a variety of reasons, but I believe power companies could have A large impact on electric car adoption/costs. Imagine households getting money back from sharing electricity during peak demand. This could work if everyone scheduled their charge and cloud logged use patterns. I suppose this is not good for the batteries to be cycled over 0 miles, but maybe one day battery characteristics will be economical for this type of application.

There are a number of families who will not drive very often at all-- (elderly, for example), an electric car being used as a buffer for the grid could put the car to use.

[lester12483]

Fisker karma.

[REdiculous]

Conclusion: The Leaf doesn’t begin to pencil out unless we drive over 72 miles/day. That seems a bit extreme for the casual commuter. REdiculous, I concede to your point. The annual miles are an eye-opener.

I just gave myself a budget of $32k and went from there...

The Versa is about $12k and the Leaf about $32k, for a difference of $20k.

If I get the Versa I can also buy 4000 gallons of gasoline at $5/gal. If I average 25mpg, I can drive 100k miles and I'll have spent my $32k.

The Leaf comes with cheap miles for life, but are they cheap enough to make a difference? Honestly, I'd love to see what you come up with, because all I have are guesses and hand-waiving. I'm too lazy to work numbers for various commute-lengths, and I'm sure that can make a big difference...

All in good fun!..though it does piss me off that BEVs are that expensive, considering it's the poor that can really use the savings, yet it's only the rich that can afford these vehicles and they take advantage of the federal incentive.

[liveforphysics]

Driving an EV provides some intangables that are tough to describe.

I only had one day with a Leaf, but it was honestly such a nice driving experience that going back yo my gas vehicle just felt kinda unsatisfying and a little stupid afterwards.

Having an engine idling at stoplights and while crawling around in traffic just felt so lame after rolling the leaf for a day.

Gas will hit $10 a gal in the next few years, even if OPEC reduces the worth per barrel even further, because the USD is all ready destroyed from money printing, and just waiting to collapse to being worthless. Electricity at least comes from domestic sources.

Its kinda fighting the enevitable to not go electric. We are just one big battery chemistry improvement from it making sense for ~98% of the vehicle use model for ~98% of Americans.

[Dauntless]

Its kinda fighting the enevitable to not go electric. We are just one big battery chemistry improvement from it making sense for ~98% of the vehicle use model for ~98% of Americans.

One battery chemistry improvement could be real big without being enough. If you have a 5 mile trip an electric scooter can work out great right now, if you can ride. I don't expect to see this 98/98 you're talking about in my lifetime.

Right now I'd settle for the LiPo performance without the pyrotechnic potential.

[REdiculous]

One battery chemistry improvement could be real big without being enough. If you have a 5 mile trip an electric scooter can work out great right now, if you can ride. I don't expect to see this 98/98 you're talking about in my lifetime.

Right now I'd settle for the LiPo performance without the pyrotechnic potential.

Yup...

Even if the capacity doubled for the same weight/size/cost, it still wouldn't be enough. Rather than "100 miles" in a Leaf you could do as much as 200 miles. woop-de-freakin-do; that's a 3 hour drive at 65mph and you're done.

This doesn't really matter for anything, but my truck needs an oil change every month just based on the miles it's been seeing -- easily averaging 100mi/day.

Fireworks are cool, they just need to be cheaper and more widely available! Right now I'd settle for lipo performance at half the cost. Physical size and weight could double for all I care - I want performance on the cheap.

[Arlo1]

One battery chemistry improvement could be real big without being enough. If you have a 5 mile trip an electric scooter can work out great right now, if you can ride. I don't expect to see this 98/98 you're talking about in my lifetime.

Right now I'd settle for the LiPo performance without the pyrotechnic potential.

Yup...

Even if the capacity doubled for the same weight/size/cost, it still wouldn't be enough. Rather than "100 miles" in a Leaf you could do as much as 200 miles. woop-de-freakin-do; that's a 3 hour drive at 65mph and you're done.

This doesn't really matter for anything, but my truck needs an oil change every month just based on the miles it's been seeing -- easily averaging 100mi/day.

Fireworks are cool, they just need to be cheaper and more widely available! Right now I'd settle for lipo performance at half the cost. Physical size and weight could double for all I care - I want performance on the cheap.

3 hours in my gas burning car and im done too the GAS tank is empty. They have charging stations set up for the leaf to fast charge they get 80% charge in 28 minutes. And someone set a world record with a leaf up the I5 it is 1200km in 24 hours! So dont tell me you can't use it for long trips!

[TylerDurden]

Remember the evolution of cell-phones: they were expensive, the phones sucked, the infrastructure sucked. Yet, could any country or society lead and succeed without them?

The same will be true of EVs: The societies that embrace EV technology will leave the laggers in the stone-age.

[REdiculous]

3 hours in my gas burning car and im done too the GAS tank is empty. They have charging stations set up for the leaf to fast charge they get 80% charge in 28 minutes. And someone set a world record with a leaf up the I5 it is 1200km in 24 hours! So dont tell me you can't use it for long trips!

What do you drive?...I think most cars will do 6 hours on a tank, on the freeway, and still have some range to go hunting for the cheap gas.

745 miles in 24 hours is pathetic. That should take 12 hours if you drive the speed limit, but that's only allowing 40 minutes of down-time for potty breaks, refueling, etc.

[Arlo1]

3 hours in my gas burning car and im done too the GAS tank is empty. They have charging stations set up for the leaf to fast charge they get 80% charge in 28 minutes. And someone set a world record with a leaf up the I5 it is 1200km in 24 hours! So dont tell me you can't use it for long trips!

What do you drive?...I think most cars will do 6 hours on a tank, on the freeway, and still have some range to go hunting for the cheap gas.

745 miles in 24 hours is pathetic. That should take 12 hours if you drive the speed limit, but that's only allowing 40 minutes of down-time for potty breaks, refueling, etc.

Srt4 and the most i seem to fit is 42 litres when the fuel light is flashing. I get 3-4 hours a tank 375-500 km most the comuting i do althought driving 95-100 km i have got 600 on a tank once. All im saying is you are looking at long travels way to much. I drive 70km a day and a leaf would be great for me!

[REdiculous]

3 hours in my gas burning car and im done too the GAS tank is empty. They have charging stations set up for the leaf to fast charge they get 80% charge in 28 minutes. And someone set a world record with a leaf up the I5 it is 1200km in 24 hours! So dont tell me you can't use it for long trips!

What do you drive?...I think most cars will do 6 hours on a tank, on the freeway, and still have some range to go hunting for the cheap gas.

745 miles in 24 hours is pathetic. That should take 12 hours if you drive the speed limit, but that's only allowing 40 minutes of down-time for potty breaks, refueling, etc.

Srt4 and the most i seem to fit is 42 litres when the fuel light is flashing. I get 3-4 hours a tank 375-500 km most the comuting i do althought driving 95-100 km i have got 600 on a tank once. All im saying is you are looking at long travels way to much. I drive 70km a day and a leaf would be great for me!

My tank is similarly sized and I can get 6-8 hours of drive-time on the freeway depending on how I drive.

You're not looking at long travels enough. Like I said earlier, my truck needs an oil change every month based on the miles...

My brother goes to school 25mi to the South and dad's school is 50 miles to the North. That's at least 150 miles a day without trying, and without getting into my miles, other errands or recreational usage. Even ignoring the truck/car thing, the Leaf is not a drop-in replacement for this kind of use - not even close!


A Leaf probably would work really well for you. Your commute is in the butter-zone; not too much but not too little. If it's worth the cost of entry, I dunno. You can work some numbers for yourself, but I still think I'd get something like the Versa if I had to buy new, or I'd look for a decent used car for around $5k.