EV depreciation 80% in 3 years=Opportunity to get a CheapEV?

[MitchJi]

Hi,

http://m.green.autoblog.com/2013/12...cles/?post=2&icid=autobloggreen_river_article

EVs lose value faster than traditional new vehicles
When it comes to new cars, more green now means less green later. The UK-based CAP Automotive, which regularly publishes auto-depreciation reports, recently released a study that found that electric vehicles lose their value substantially faster than their gas-powered counterparts. Specifically, EVs in the UK lose about 80 percent of their value within the first three years of ownership, while most cars lose somewhere between 60 and 70 percent. The best value retainers are supercars, SUVs and luxury-executive vehicles, which all keep more than half their new-car value after three years.

The Telegraph points out that CAP didn't factor in the 5,000-pound incentive from the British government for new plug-in vehicles, nor did they calculate the value of free parking and exclusion from London's congestion charge. The publication also notes that Tesla Model S and Nissan Leaf are in their first-generation incarnation, which tends to make people wary about buying them on the used-vehicle market.

That said, there has long been skepticism in the UK when it comes to the value of plug-in vehicles. In June 2010, UK's Glass' Guide came to the conclusion that EVs would lose about 90 percent of their value after five years of ownership. That research group suggested at the time that EV values would suffer particularly because batteries would be worthless after half a decade.

A 3 year old Tesla Model S (MSRP: $69,900 - $89,900) for $14k to $18k!

Or 20% of a Leaf's MSRP is about $5,800 (for a 3 year old EV)! Even if the pack has deteriorated to 50% that's a great deal for a NEV. Or buy a junkyard pack and run it in addition to the pack that came with the car. Maybe for 10+12k you could end up with a substantially longer range than the factory leaf.

 

[LSBW]

So? 3 y.o. BMW 5 series, which was probably close to 70.000 brand new, is now $23.000 in Toronto.

Not a huge difference. Plus, this is only prediction, some cars hold value much better than the others.

 

[bee]

This is great news, I have been thinking of getting the new Smart EV because of the $8,000 rebate but if they drop this much then I'd much rather get it used. Hopefully in a few years some hackers will have done some fun stuff with the controllers, I'm sure most of the new EVs are heavily limited to minimize transmission wear from all the available torque.

 

[MitchJi]

Hi,

A 3 year old Tesla Model S (MSRP: $69,900 - $89,900) for $14k to $18k!

Using $70k instead of $69,900 we get $14k.

So? 3 y.o. BMW 5 series, which was probably close to 70.000 brand new, is now $23.000 in Toronto. Not a huge difference.

So you think paying $14k instead of $23k isn't a "huge difference"?

The UK-based CAP Automotive, which regularly publishes auto-depreciation reports, recently released a study that found that electric vehicles lose their value substantially faster than their gas-powered counterparts. Specifically, EVs in the UK lose about 80 percent of their value within the first three years of ownership, while most cars lose somewhere between 60 and 70 percent

Plus, this is only prediction, some cars hold value much better than the others.

1. It's actually a little stronger than merely a prediction, it's a study based on some existing results.

2. But you are correct that my figures for the Tesla Model S (which are probably weaker than predictions) it seems unlikely, because the initial range is pretty high. OTOH with a less expensive Tesla on the way, maybe with an even greater range so who knows?

3. The reason I posted this is when I read the article I decided part of the process of buying an EV should include, particularly for many ES members should include monitoring used EV prices. If they do fall by even close to 80% some of us will get a bargain .

 

[flathill]

i wish. maybe wholesale at dealer only auctions. 3 year old leafs are not that cheap retail but u can get them at salvage hella cheap

media scare machine in action to supress the independents

 

[jkbrigman]

Kelley blue book on used 2011 LEAF right now is around $20,500. I've seen similar in my local area for about $18k. The really cool thing is that most used/lease return models are low mileage due to the low range of the car. An interesting turn of events for an unusual used car.

It's a damn shame you can't get the gov't tax credit for the used vehicle (only the original buyer of a new one, up until 200,000 LEAFs are sold). But getting that $7500-or-more off the retail price while keeping 80-90% of the range is nothing to sneeze at.

I'm hoping we see some updates to the LEAF soon - it's unfortunate that now the VERSA hatchback looks much nicer than the LEAF does. I'm wondering if Nissan is taking steps to make the two cars even more similar so they see better economies of scale.

 

[dnmun]

i cannot comment on 3 years since my newest car is 24 years old when i bot it. but i think it is possible there will be many vehicles available discounted heavily in the future when they develop problems that the dealers can only solve by throwing systems at the car. big expenses may cause the owners to bail out when battery problems arise and their only solution is to buy a new battery, which could otherwise be repaired with just a slight bit of knowledge. i think that is where the deals will come from in the future. the best deals.

i just wish they had sold more of the iMEV over here so there would be more available. even though i like the leaf i might avoid it because of the links it uses over the internet when you charge. i am hoping the iMEV does not have this kinda liability since i prefer to set up my own charging station along with others which would be outside the guvment supervised charging spots so that i could control what info the guvment collected on mileage so that i would have more control over the taxation. no, i am not a fan of taxation. or city inspectors evaluating my neighborhood charging hot spot.

 

[liveforphysics]

Why do I check for cheap Teslas everyday and still have never found one?

 

[Dauntless]

Why do I check for cheap Teslas everyday and still have never found one?

'Cause you gotta believe. You fill a bucket with soapy water, get the shamwow, head for the driveway where you know, you just KNOW the $75 Tesla Roadster will be in your driveway when you get there.

 

[MitchJi]

Hi,

Why do I check for cheap Teslas everyday and still have never found one?

Otmar found one (a little worse for wear but nothing you can't handle :wink: ):

Since it would be a waste to hack up a new Model S for this project I’ve been scouring the insurance auto auctions for a wreck that I can use for parts. I ended up with Vin# 07822. It has almost all the options I would have chosen. For those of you who speak Tesla those are: 2013, 85kWh, Active Air, Tech, Pano, 19″, Obeche, Black Leather and Jump Seats. The only additional option I would have liked is the dual chargers. Clearly it will need some replacement suspension parts in the front as well. As I write this it’s heading here on a truck from New York and I expect it to arrive in about a week.

Wrecked Tesla arrives:
[youtube]fwr4WuAobAE[/youtube]

More info here:
http://endless-sphere.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=34&t=55946

 

[dnmun]

Why do I check for cheap Teslas everyday and still have never found one?

i am a member of copart auto resellers who have an online auction of vehicles totalled by the insurance companies. there is a 2013 model S in Van Nuys you might be interested in bidding on. it is close enuff that you can go to the lot and examine the vehicle close up but the damage is not dramatic so the car may go for over $15-25k.

i cannot link you to the pictures but if you wanna you can pursue it yourself. they may allow you to create a trial membership but if you get interested i would recommend you pursue becoming a member so you can follow and bid on them as they are brought up for auction. there are currently 6 prepared for auction, one tomorrow, but the one in Van Nuys has the least damage so it may be more manageable.

you can get the id from this address, see if there is some way to get onto their site to view it if you are interested. i am willing to help if you are unfamiliar with realtime online auctions but i do not have enuff cash available to bid on it myself. it could go for less than $10k too since they are not something many of the body shop and rebuilder guys might bid on because of their lack of knowledge of the technology which you could handle easily. 1170 miles.

http://member.copart.com/c2/search.html?_eventId=lotDetails&execution=e4s1&lotId=23994713

and there is a Leaf in LA with front end damage, but both headlight pods are unscratched, just front bumper surround smashed off, and nose of the hood is pushed back and the driver's air bag blew. 437 miles.

http://member.copart.com/c2/search.html?_eventId=lotDetails&execution=e8s1&lotId=34157753

and another Leaf in Martinez with damage front and back, right light pod gone, but no windows broken and it might be possible to pull out the rear corner. but it was totaled, 29k miles.

http://member.copart.com/c2/search.html?_eventId=lotDetails&execution=e9s1&lotId=30012003

 

[arkmundi]

EVs lose value faster than traditional new vehicles
When it comes to new cars, more green now means less green later. The UK-based CAP Automotive, which regularly publishes auto-depreciation reports, recently released a study that found that electric vehicles lose their value substantially faster than their gas-powered counterparts. Specifically, EVs in the UK lose about 80 percent of their value within the first three years of ownership, while most cars lose somewhere between 60 and 70 percent....

I suspect a good part of the reason is how fast electric vehicle and battery technology is changing. Also, the batteries are a big part of the equation and they loose capacity. The Tesla S may not, because a lifetime of battery is included in the price, along with free solar charging from their emergent charging stations.

Anyone considering the purchase of an electric vehicle would do well to first consider doing an electric conversion of their current vehicle, and with all new state-of-the-art batteries. For instance: http://www.electriccarpartscompany.com/

 

[flathill]

media scare machine in action

did you read the most important line
"The Telegraph points out that CAP didn't factor in the 5,000-pound incentive from the British government

it would be like calculating the depreciation on a leaf without fqctoring the 2500 state rebate (here in california 6000 in colorado) and 7500 from the feds

 

[neptronix]

That article is BS.
If you could find a 3 year old EV for 80% less, many of us would be buying those and forgetting about ebikes

80% less off of $29,000 for a Nissan Leaf for example, would be ~$6000.
Ever seen a Tesla Roadster for sale for ~$20,000?


The cheapest used Nissan Leaf i'm seeing online is $17,000 for a 2011 model.

Here are two ways you can calculate this depreciation, depending on how biased you want to be.

1) The buyer pays the current price for the vehicle ( ~$29k ) and gets a $10,000 tax credit, reducing the car's ultimate price to about $19k - $25k. In this scenario, this car depreciates over 2 years at a rate much lower than the usual gasoline-fired car depreciates. It's lost 25% of it's value in 2 years.

2) The buyer pays last year's price ( ~$33k ) and just decides to not take the huge tax credit for some reason. The car has lost ~50% of it's value in 2 years.

How realistic is scenario 2 versus scenario 1?

 

[wineboyrider]

Why do I check for cheap Teslas everyday and still have never found one?

If Santa would only give me one? LOL.
This is my dream car...

 

[dnmun]

i can work on cars so retail or buying used in mint condition is not such a big issue for me.

i did see a tesla roadster up for auction in NY too, another case of just having the front bumper surround torn off and hood pushed back to make it totalled by the insurance company. totally straight otherwise. i bet it sells for $4k.

no mechanical problems on most of the teslas i saw at copart. worst was wheels ripped off, and some body damage on right side, but no damage to battery or motor in rear. i think that model S in Van Nuys will draw bigger bids since it is so clean, except the airbags are expensive to replace. i could live with duck tape over it myself. but all of them had drivetrain and batteries intact. all new 2012-2013 cars. why would you build something from scratch when they are available? except it is hard to get to be a member of coparts if you are not in the auto reselling business. except in oregon. one state that allows private citizens to bid.

i saw a 2007 civic hybrid with 87k miles at our local yard so i am gonna go look at it. right sideswiped, front fender to rear door, so it did not set off the airbag. if i can straighten the A pillar and find a used door and fender for a 2007, which is pretty common, i could be adding a civic hybrid to my stable this week. gonna bid to about $2800 i think.

 

[Dauntless]

That article is BS.
If you could find a 3 year old EV for 80% less, many of us would be buying those and forgetting about ebikes

Sometimes the blunt approach is the only thing that gets the point across.

80% less off of $29,000 for a Nissan Leaf for example, would be ~$6000.
Ever seen a Tesla Roadster for sale for ~$20,000?

The Roadster is getting old enough that you might soon. Nothing extraordinary about that, except it's an 'Exotic,' should hold value a little better.

The cheapest used Nissan Leaf i'm seeing online is $17,000 for a 2011 model.

Again hardly extraordinary depreciation for 3 years, assuming 40k miles. People who don't do their own oil changes save another what? $300? If you save as much as $5k from driving it, (Might you have spent $8k for gas vs. the supposed $3k to charge?) perhaps the difference in price to buy the same gas car in class to the Leaf, the sense of economy still isn't quite on the side of the electric, but we're getting there.

 

[Punx0r]

Just taken a quick look on ebay and autotrader: used Leafs (2011&2012) are priced from £10k by dealers, not many seem to be sold by private sellers. New leaf looks to be about £16k (probably base model and govt. subsidy). Niche cars do tend to hold their value better.

For folks here looking to buy a fixer-upper, I'd think you want cars with battery/control problems, not accident damage. Pulling dents and respraying doesn't matter much what the drivetrain is, but your average mechanic knows nothing about the electric propulsion side of things. I bet if an EV wouldn't drive they wouldn'y touch it, except to strip for parts. An electronic engineer might be able to repair it for peanuts...

 

[dnmun]

i kinda do agree with you, but the biggest expense in these small front end fender benders is blowing the airbag and the megabucks for the light pods so since there is a gas nissan with the same body which is identical to the Leaf there may be access to more body parts than electrical parts and from looking at the auctions, there are none that went to auction because of electrical problems.

maybe later when the vehicles start aging and problems pop up but they have not shown up on my radar yet.

i just wish more of the iMEV had come here. but it might be more available in japan so you would just need to ship it from there. the japanese dump their cars instead of fixing them after a few years from my observation. maybe there will be an excess of used iMEVs in japan soon.

 

[Punx0r]

IIRC the Japanese system for vehicle inspection (first after three years) is very costly, so many people simply buy a new car, hence leaving lots of young cars to be exported.

I guess with collisions it's all taken care of by the insurance company, whereas if the controller blows the owners probably get it replaced by the dealer, and the car never goes near an auction. If the car is still worth 10 grand then I guess a grand or two for a new electronic module is a pain, but worth paying up for.

Oh, well. They'll hit the "affordable" end of the used car market one day

 

[MitchJi]

Hi,

I suspect a good part of the reason is how fast electric vehicle and battery technology is changing. Also, the batteries are a big part of the equation and they lose capacity. The Tesla S may not, because a lifetime of battery is included in the price, along with free solar charging from their emergent charging stations.

Not really. Note the Paypal (Elon) business model, big on hype with no or conflicting details. You can be sure of one thing, Tesla won't end up holding the bag if premature capacity loss becomes a problem:
http://www.teslamotors.com/fr_CH/forum/forums/battery-warranty-model-s

Battery warranty from Model S: 8 years and unlimited km. What does it mean? Everybody knows that battery-capacity is losing over time. If the capacity after 8 years is for instance 70%, what will happen with the warranty? It will replaced or not?
---------------------
I have this same question. Elon musk seemed so forceful in his recent battery guarantee. But, you are right: the specific parameters of what would qualify for replacement haven't been defined as far as I've seen.
---------------------
From what I know, battery warranty is for everything (including manufacturing defects and bricking issue due to not reading manual) except capacity loss over time (no car manufacturer warranting this).
---------------------
I e-mailed ownership@teslamotors.com to find out when a % loss of range becomes a warranty issue. They replied that if my battery drops below 70% TM would replace it.
---------------------
Wow, thanks dtesla! That 70% number has been batted around a lot, but that's the first time I have seen any confirmation of it.
---------------------
Now if only they'd write that down somewhere so we could believe it.
---------------------
Well, at the Menlo Park get-together yesterday Kim from the Santana Row location said they were told to say that "anything over 20% degradation in 8 years" would be considered a warranty service item. So we really need an official written commitment on the battery warranty.
---------------------
20% degradation after 8 years seems reasonable, 30% does not. 70% * 60 kWh/85 kWh * 265 EPA miles = only 130 miles EPA rated range for a fully charged 60 kWh Model S, which could lead to quite a bit of range anxiety between many existing and proposed SuperChargers.
---------------------
That warranty length matches mainstream automaker's pledges about their electric-car batteries. But Tesla goes a bit further.

The Model S' bigger 85 kwh battery pack is warranted for eight years or unlimited mileage. The smaller, 60 kilowatt-hour pack, is eight years or 125,000 miles, whichever comes first. The usual is eight years/100,000 miles.

"We don't think anybody could put enough miles on to kill the (85 kwh) pack. That could turn out to be wrong, but we have half-a-million miles on one in the lab," says Tesla chief Elon Musk. "Even the 60 kwh customers will be able to take it well over 200,000 miles."

Anyone considering the purchase of an electric vehicle would do well to first consider doing an electric conversion of their current vehicle, and with all new state-of-the-art batteries....

With used OEM EV's available in junk yards the only (IMO) financially sensible way to do a electric conversion of a current vehicle is by using used OEM components (batteries/bms's, motors and controllers).

 

[MitchJi]

Hi nep,

That article is BS.

If you could find a 3 year old EV for 80% less, many of us would be buying those and forgetting about ebikes

It was a prediction/study. And agree with the buying EV's instead of ebikes but you need to wait for 3 year old mass produced EV's to hit the market before that statement becomes valid. The point of my post is that it might be worth keeping an eye on used EV prices.

80% less off of $29,000 for a Nissan Leaf for example, would be ~$6000.

The cheapest used Nissan Leaf i'm seeing online is $17,000 for a 2011 model.

In Calif $28k (new they were $33k with a $5k price drop) new price minus $10k state and federal incentives = $18k.

So:
1. $17k is a pretty bad deal (how firm do you think that price is?).
2. When the incentives expire used EV prices will probably go up.
2. If nothing else as new EV prices drop and batteries improve it will have a big impact on used EV prices. Two examples, when the leaf was introduced Nissan said in a few years (2014?) they were working on batteries that would double the range and Tesla is planning on a $30k model e. Those will happen, it's a question of when not if and that will have a big impact on the prices of used Leaf's and model S's (and other EV's).

 

[MitchJi]

Hi,

http://www.autoblog.com/2013/12/31/electric-cars-depreciate-quicker/

Electric cars may be great for saving money on gas, but a new report from Kelley Blue Book, commissioned by USA Today, shows that EVs might not be a great value option for their first owners. The study found that compared to gas-powered vehicles, EVs tend to lose significantly more of their value in the first five years of ownership, corroborating a study conducted in the UK, which we reported on earlier this month.

The new Chevrolet Spark EV, for example, will only be worth 28-percent of its $28,305 sticker price after it's been on the road for five years, compared to its conventionally powered counterpart's 40 percent value retention. It's a similar story with the Ford Focus Electric, which starts at $35,995. The EV variant will be worth 20 percent of that, while a gas-powered Focus Titanium should be worth 36 percent of its list price.

In fact, in KBB projections, the three cars with the highest level of depreciation use an electric motor and battery packs - the Nissan Leaf, Fiat 500e and Smart Fortwo Electric Drive. "Pure electrics have been slow to catch on in the resale market," Eric Ibara, directors of KBB's residual consulting, told USA Today. Customers are "willing to buy a new one, not a used electric vehicle."

Still, the study's results might not indicate a problem with the cars themselves. As USA Today points out, most EVs come with significant amounts of incentive money up front – many come with a $7,500 tax credit courtesy of Uncle Sam, in addition to any other government incentives (federal or otherwise) – while electric cars are traditionally available on very reasonable lease terms. These factors corroborate to hurt a car's long-term value.