la Nina rears her ugly head

[The fingers]

Detailed Forecast
This Afternoon
Widespread haze. Areas of smoke after 5pm. Sunny, with a high near 92. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Tonight
Areas of smoke before 8pm. Mostly clear, with a low around 66. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Friday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11am. Widespread haze between 8am and 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Light and variable wind becoming southwest 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Friday Night
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 65. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Saturday
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Light and variable wind becoming south 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Saturday Night
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm. Mostly clear, with a low around 63. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 84.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 61.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 84.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 59.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 80.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 57.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 77.

[The fingers]

FB727637-29A7-44A7-B680-5B44A133D21A.png (167.97 KiB) Viewed 433 times

[The fingers]

So near, yet so far.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24

[The fingers]

La Niña Rain Gage
Nothin'/Skunked-Foggy Doggy-Play Misty-Drizzle Corn-Light Showers-Steady Soaker-Bands/Sheets-Cats & Dogs
***********************************************************************

[The fingers]

Just a drop or two at home, nothing measurable.
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getob ... m=72&raw=0

More a nearby stations throughout the county.
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... roduct=RRM

[The fingers]

La Niña Rain Gage
Nothin'/Skunked-Foggy Doggy-Play Misty-Drizzle Corn-Light Showers-Steady Soaker-Bands/Sheets-Cats & Dogs
*************************************

[fechter]

Another front misses. A little rain to the north, which is good for the fire fighters, but not a drop here. The rain season here officially ends September 30. 10.5" total. If we have another dry year, it's going to get really serious for the water supply.

[The fingers]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jK318OLapBQ

[The fingers]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BzTssDHlsjE

[The fingers]

Maybe a more realistic chance with predicted amounts:

026755C2-EB03-4E75-8CCE-366764E480B5.png (117.28 KiB) Viewed 399 times

Detailed Forecast
Tonight
Partly cloudy, with a low around 60. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Monday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 88. Light and variable wind becoming southwest 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Monday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. Calm wind becoming northeast around 5 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Tuesday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. Light and variable wind becoming west 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 52. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable in the evening.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 78.
Wednesday Night
Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 51.
Thursday
Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 72.
Thursday Night
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49.
Friday
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 68.
Friday Night
A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 45.
Saturday
A slight chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 73.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 46.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 76.

Watch it unfold here in the satellite view:
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/c ... &length=24

[The fingers]

La Niña Rain Gage
Nothin'/Skunked-Foggy Doggy-Play Misty-Drizzle Corn-Light Showers-Steady Soaker-Bands/Sheets-Cats & Dogs
*********************************************************************************************

[fechter]

They were talking about a chance of rain this Friday, but now I see they took that out of the forecast.
I hope the showers down south hit that big fire. The smoke has been making it up here.

[The fingers]

0.19” storm total here, hopefully more coming

SDHET HEMET VALLE VISTA 0.19 2050

Friday’s forecast percentage amounts:

03CB5CD7-008B-498D-8A4D-E5D051B65E97.png (111.68 KiB) Viewed 384 times

[The fingers]

Detailed Forecast
This Afternoon
Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. West wind around 5 mph.
Tonight
Patchy fog between 11pm and 2am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Thursday
Cloudy, with a high near 72. Light west wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Thursday Night
A chance of showers, mainly after 11pm. Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low around 53. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Friday
Showers likely, mainly before 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 65. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 48.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 76.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 53.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 84.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 54.
Columbus Day
Sunny, with a high near 78.
Monday Night
A slight chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 48.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 66.

[The fingers]

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/hemet ... ast/337079

6188A474-1D78-4C9D-B18F-DB475C5BCE88.png (139.91 KiB) Viewed 366 times

[The fingers]

La Niña Rain Gage
Nothin'/Skunked-Foggy Doggy-Play Misty-Drizzle Corn-Light Showers-Steady Soaker-Bands/Sheets-Cats & Dogs
**************************************************************************

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24

[The fingers]

PRECIPITATION SUMMARY....PRELIMINARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO
800 AM PDT THURSDAY OCT 07 2021

12 HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS AS OF 800 AM THURSDAY

.TOP RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM ALL ZONES...

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEVATION(FT)

1. ANGELES HILL 0.12 3920
2. PAIVIKA RIDGE 0.11 5298
3. COTO DE CAZA 0.08 730
BELL CANYON 0.08 700
SAN JACINTO NORTH 0.08 1511
6. LAKE FOREST 0.05 970
HEMET VALLE VISTA 0.05 2050
8. LAGUNA HILLS 0.04 400
CORONA DEL MAR 0.04 300
COSTA MESA 0.04 47

[The fingers]

La Niña Rain Gage
Nothin'/Skunked-Foggy Doggy-Play Misty-Drizzle Corn-Light Showers-Steady Soaker-Bands/Sheets-Cats & Dogs
***********************************************************************************************************

[The fingers]

As of 5:00am
SDHET HEMET VALLE VISTA 0.09 2050

As of 12:noon
SDHET HEMET VALLE VISTA 0.34 2050

As of 2:00pm
SDHET HEMET VALLE VISTA 0.43 2050


This Afternoon
A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 63. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

[fechter]

They're saying La Nina is officially back and should last through spring. This means more rain up north, less rain down south and about normal where I am.

La nina.JPG (49.79 KiB) Viewed 337 times

Normal would be great at this point.

The forecast here is looking hopeful. It would be the first measurable rain in about 6 months.

10-17-21 forecast.JPG (61.69 KiB) Viewed 338 times

[The fingers]

Detailed Forecast
Overnight
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49. South wind around 5 mph.
Monday
A chance of rain before 11am, then a slight chance of showers after 11am. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 58. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southwest in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 42. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 71. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 47. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 77.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 52.
Thursday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 82.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 54.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 80.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 53.
Saturday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 71.
Saturday Night
Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 51.
Sunday
Patchy fog. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 71.

[The fingers]

La Niña Rain Gage
Nothin'/Skunked-Foggy Doggy-Play Misty-Drizzle Corn-Light Showers-Steady Soaker-Bands/Sheets-Cats & Dogs
**
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wNl9ksUI-bU

Smelled like rain, then the sun came out.

[fechter]

Latest NWS model indicates an "atmospheric river" is forming and aimed in my direction. Over the next week, they are predicting up to 5" of rain here. That would be half of what I got all of last season. If this happens, it should put out all of the fires from here north.

[fechter]

Finally, some measurable rain. About 0.2". It's a start. Last measurable was back on March 19. That's a really long dry spell.
Forecast is looking hopeful. Rain or chance of rain every day for the next week. I'm looking forward to riding my bike in the mud. I'm tired of the dry, dusty trails. My bike would get completely coated with dust after riding. Mud is more fun.

[The fingers]

https://ktla.com/news/local-news/double ... nter-noaa/