Tesla battery day announcement

MitchJi

10 MW
Joined
Jun 2, 2008
Messages
3,246
Location
Marin County California
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1274902689533444097?s=21
Tentative date for Tesla Shareholder Meeting & Battery Day is Sept 15. Will include tour of cell production system.
I believe that they will show a battery production line or lines with a comment like
This is a full line that is producing more than the lines currently in production at Giga-Nev and it’s much more compact.
I believe that this removes any doubt that they will be producing cars with the new cells before September 15.
 
EVTV..Jack Ricard..has posted a rambling Youtube with an explanation why Battery Day has been repeatedly delayed.
https://youtu.be/3ZNuAztk5g4
He suggests Tesla cannot anounce a new improved, capacity, mileage, cost, etc... battery until they are in full production and installing them in cars, or it would kill sales of current stock and production.

Personally, i do not see the improved “million mile” battery as a huge benefit to the EVs..(.unless it is dramatically cheaper ?)...who wants a car battery to last 10-15+ years ?
However, extended life would be a huge boost for Teslas Storage products where life expectancy is a major factor in cost justification and ROI for utilities.
Musk has said he believes the Storage business could become bigger than the EVs , so being able to make one sale of 100MWh or a GWh of Power Packs with double the life potential, has to be a easier game than selling 10,000 cars.
And at the $750/kWh going rate for PowerPack storage, it likely more profitable.
So maybe he will launch the “new battery technology” as a storage product only initially ?
 
Hillhater said:
...who wants a car battery to last 10-15+ years ?

The same neolithic people who think EV battery packs need replacing every 18 months I guess...
 
Hillhater said:
Personally, i do not see the improved “million mile” battery as a huge benefit to the EVs..(.unless it is dramatically cheaper ?)...who wants a car battery to last 10-15+ years.
Robotaxis and v2g.
 
Hillhater said:
who wants a car battery to last 10-15+ years ?

Lets see. My last car was a 1993 Nissan Sentra E. Paid $9K cash when new. It was 23 years old when I drove it to the junk yard. Got $150 for it at 328K miles.

Our Bolt EV is now 3 years old and 33K miles. It will be our last car. We will give it to one of our kids when we stop driving.
 
Warren said:
Hillhater said:
who wants a car battery to last 10-15+ years ?

Lets see. My last car was a 1993 Nissan Sentra E. Paid $9K cash when new. It was 23 years old when I drove it to the junk yard. Got $150 for it at 328K miles.
Warren, the 15+ yrs, was a figure derived (not by me ), from the “million mile” battery excitement, representing an extreme hypothetical example of possible usage.(Taxi’s, etc)
But your experience illustrates how unlikely it would be for most users to ever get close to a “million mile” usage.
So unless the “M’mile/15+” is just incidental to other more tangible improvements, it not a big attraction to a typical EV buyer, other than as sales bait in marketing headlines.
Bulk energy storage and Trucks maybe, but not cars !.
What EV’s really need is cheaper batteries and better Energy Density
 
Could be great news for people doing custom builds, more secondhand batteries in the market if they outlast the cars they're in. :mrgreen:
 
The new battery technology from Tesla must be so good that it requires more cobalt, because Tesla just signed up a new deal to buy more cobalt from more suppliers.

The unpredictable Elon Musk strikes again. JUNE 23, 2020
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-cobalt-ahome-idUSKBN23U20Q?taid=5ef225dab353e80001154c29
Quote from article
Just when his electric vehicle (EV) company Tesla seemed to be pivoting away from using cobalt in its batteries, it signs a long-term supply deal for the controversial metal with Glencore.

This from the man who has vowed to eliminate cobalt from the Tesla product mix because of its financial cost and the reputational cost of a metal associated with child labour and poor safety conditions at artisanal mining operations in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the world’s dominant producer.

But Tesla is the standard-bearer for the EV revolution and its deal with Glencore has strategic significance for the global battery raw materials supply chain.

It’s a boost for cobalt’s prospects, both in terms of physical demand and, more importantly, in the apparent admission that cobalt isn’t going away as a battery material any time soon.

Tesla and its battery partner Panasonic have until now largely used a nickel-cobalt-aluminium (NCA) formula in their lithium-ion batteries.

But it’s also clear from the Glencore deal that Tesla, however reluctantly, is going to continue using cobalt in other markets.

Tesla, though, has evidently decided the risk of not getting enough future cobalt outweighs the potential reputational risks of taking supply directly from the Congo.

But cobalt is different. There’s not much around and too much of what is around comes from the Congo.


While it's all a tad evil using kids to mine for premium lithion-ion cell materials so that rich SJW people can feel like they are saving the planet, there is the upside that Tesla was smart enough to secure raw battery materials while other car makers are just at the whim of the market.
Also the mining activities by kids physically digging up and sorting out cobalt by their bare hands is about as low of a carbon footprint in mining as you could possibly ask for.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JcJ8me22NVs
[youtube]JcJ8me22NVs[/youtube]

I have always been very dubious of Tesla's battery day and I think with Tesla signing brand new cobalt deals linked directly to dodgy cobalt miners it screams that they have no new miracle battery that performs better. Only someone with sub 85 IQ would think otherwise?

Like I said in my post the other day https://endless-sphere.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=89002&start=5875#p1564915
Why would any one assume there is going to be a magic lithium-ion battery when the same basic materials have been used for 41 years now! The only thing that has really changed is refining/leveling the materials to a more pure state and packing them tighter etc.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium-ion_battery#Development
1979 – Working in separate groups, Ned A. Godshall et al., and, shortly thereafter, John B. Goodenough (Oxford University) and Koichi Mizushima (Tokyo University), demonstrated a rechargeable lithium cell with voltage in the 4 V range using lithium cobalt dioxide (LiCoO2) as the positive electrode and lithium metal as the negative electrode.
This innovation provided the positive electrode material that enabled early commercial lithium batteries. LiCoO2 enabled novel rechargeable battery systems. Godshall et al. further identified the similar value of ternary compound lithium-transition metal-oxides such as the spinel LiMn2O4, Li2MnO3, LiMnO2, LiFeO2, LiFe5O8, and LiFe5O4


Tesla's preferred lithion-ion chemistry NCA has been in sold in commercial market for 20 years now.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium-ion_battery#Positive_electrode

13years of lithium battery breakthrough promises and they have all turned out to be baloney.
https://endless-sphere.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=57256

But the media loves a good story, but people need to stop falling for the click-bait.
https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/musk-sets-date-for-one-of-the-most-exciting-days-in-tesla-s-history-20200624-p555k2
 
Hillhater said:
Maybe i should have said, “who needs a car battery that lasts 15+ years”... ?
Unless all other components on the car are also going to be reliable for 15+ yrs,...its not a big advantage.

That's the cool thing about BEV. Nothing inside that brakes...

Of course I woul like a car that last 30 years or 50 years.

....

What do you suggest for miners in Congo? Take away their jobs and let them starve to death?
 
Even if you halved your cobalt usage per cell.... each year they produce more and more cells.

Of course they're going to secure cobalt, they want to keep their supplies in check and don't want the cost to spiral out of control.

I have my doubts about any battery revolution overnight but progress is slowly ticking along.
Demand for more cells is pretty strong and I can only imagine ability to supply enough will get worse as companies start (or start in earnest) producing EVs.

Mining companies and ethics rarely go hand in hand.
 
Cephalotus said:
Hillhater said:
Maybe i should have said, “who needs a car battery that lasts 15+ years”... ?
Unless all other components on the car are also going to be reliable for 15+ yrs,...its not a big advantage.

That's the cool thing about BEV. Nothing inside that brakes...
Electric motors are not unique to EVs, they have been around for a few years !!
And there is a lot of folk employed worldwide in businesses dedicated to repairing, rebuilding, rewinding, refurbishing, etc electric motors of all types, shapes and sizes,..nothing is 100% reliable, or lasts indefinitely.
Maybe You didnt hear about the Tesla data logger that only lasts 4- 5 years before shutting down most systems and requireing a $5k factory replacement ?
And you believe EV TRANSMISSION units are any less prone to wear or problems than any other cars ?
Do i need to mention the Tesla transmission failures, or their front suspension and steering failures ?
Most modern ICE engines outlast the rest of the car and associated components,
Besides all the normal wear items, suspension, brakes, drive couplings, wheel bearings, steering system, aircon, etc etc,...one of the most common causes of failure on modern cars is Electrical faults. ..And EVs certainly wont be immune from those which i suspect will be more complex and expensive than a Ford focus !
https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a30361800/tesla-model-3-long-term-failure-stranded-while-parked/
https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/drive-train-failed-need-new-motor
https://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2020/06/tesla-investigated-over-touchscreen-failure-complaints/
https://electrek.co/2020/06/12/when-an-out-of-warranty-ev-fails-who-you-gonna-call/
 
Cephalotus said:
What do you suggest for miners in Congo? Take away their jobs and let them starve to death?
How about the mining companies discover some “ethics”, and force the adults to do the mining instead of F#king around all day playing war games and generally being useless oxygen thieves... ?
... and allow the kids to go to school in the hope of a better future for themselves and their country.
Better still , forget the cobalt,.. its just too hard to find,... make the adults go dig up some COAL !
At least they could use that locally to make electricity and progress their nations development.
..Too radical ??
 
Hillhater said:
How about the mining companies discover some “ethics”, and force the adults to do the mining instead of F#king around all day playing war games and generally being useless oxygen thieves... ?
Great idea! Get on that.
Better still , forget the cobalt,.. its just too hard to find,... make the adults go dig up some COAL !
?? You do realize that cobalt is a byproduct of copper and nickel mining, right? So unless you want to give up copper wire, we will always have cobalt.
 
boars said:
Even if you halved your cobalt usage per cell.... each year they produce more and more cells.
Yep. And once cells require no cobalt, then even that won't matter. Tesla is already planning to build Model 3's with LiFePO4 batteries.

(Of course, then mining companies will find a way to exploit people who mine lithium.)
 
JackFlorey said:
?? You do realize that cobalt is a byproduct of copper and nickel mining, right? So unless you want to give up copper wire, we will always have cobalt.
Nah !.. not buying that !
As you know,..there are many other major sources of copper and nickel ( and cobalt) from large industrial mines around the world . So no shortage of copper !.
But they dont employ child miners to dig for cobalt the way its done in the DRC where there are “thousands” of small hand dug mines focussing on Cobalt.
 
Hillhater said:
As you know,..there are many other major sources of copper and nickel ( and cobalt) from large industrial mines around the world . So no shortage of copper !.
But they dont employ child miners to dig for cobalt the way its done in the DRC where there are “thousands” of small hand dug mines focussing on Cobalt.
Then get your cobalt from the copper mines that don't employ child miners. Problem solved.
 
So here are my quick takeaways:

Simplified manufacturing, simplified chemistry to end product, and form factor to support structural use. All reducing their costs (good) and allowing for faster production.

From a non-Tesla perspective however (unless they actually sell cells direct at some point), the structural use in a honeycomb pattern with a strength adhesive sounds like the cells will be near impossible to remove without destruction. Thus making them essentially useless since it is a structural member, even other EV conversions - unless you can use the entire body/battery part as is.

Time will tell...
 
Hillhater said:
Personally, i do not see the improved “million mile” battery as a huge benefit to the EVs..(.unless it is dramatically cheaper ?)...who wants a car battery to last 10-15+ years ?
People like me who keep their cars for 10-15 years. And people who want to use them as second life behind-the-meter storage.
 
My take away..
New 4680 cell format with 5 times the capacity ( 25 Ah ?) .. think of those little 150ml tonic water cans )
FrBWFI.jpg

...from a new production process and line capable of producing 20 GWh per year (200 mil cells ?).
Tesla predict capacity for 3000GWh/ yr by 2030 !
Predict cell cost reduction of 18%...
..pack cost reduction 56% ?
...within 3 years !
And again promissing a $25k small EV .
BUT......not actually able to produce cells yet.. still in development !!
[youtube]GSRMhzibSr8[/youtube]
 
JackFlorey said:
People like me who keep their cars for 10-15 years. And people who want to use them as second life behind-the-meter storage.

Unless Tesla improves their parts and distribution to aftermarket repair shops, that's going to be really expensive. I've thought about opening up a EV only garage, but working on Tesla's is a sketchy proposition.
 
hallkbrdz said:
Unless Tesla improves their parts and distribution to aftermarket repair shops, that's going to be really expensive. I've thought about opening up a EV only garage, but working on Tesla's is a sketchy proposition.
??I've been using an old Tesla 15s module for 5 years now for DR. They could surely make it easier to use them, but they're usable right now.
 
I watched the trainwreck that was the stockholder meeting, then finally got to see the main event too. My take-aways were cobalt-less cathode, continuous production line, dry cell tech, tabless design, and the larger cell format of 4680. 86.5 watt-hours per cell? Sign me up! I'm not sure what the power density is though... 6x whatever the 2170 is apparently.

I think this new cell production method has a lot of promise, and I imagine there'll be hiccups... but once it's up and rolling it will really put electric cars on par with ICE cars for cost finally. :bigthumb:
 
Here is an interesting thought:
Tesla modus operandi is " simplify the process as much as possible", go back to first principles as musk says over and over.
But the product they are producing is complex. Why do not they apply their simplification/common sense approach to their cars?
Why not produce a bare bones ev, as simple as possible without comprimising reliability and safety?
I think they could get the price of an affordable ev way lower than $25,000usd.
Get rid of all the self driving/cameras/software/hardware that go into it, and lots of other stuff that is not necessery, absolute bare minimum and something that is repairable by consumers.

In fact you could do away with almost all the electronics and go back to brushed motor and brushed rotating controller ( what is a brushed rotating controller you may ask, thanks for asking!, its an early device that controls pwm ( and hence motor speed) in very simple manner, I can elaborate if required). Ok you will loose some efficiency but the damn thing will only need replace brushes.
The cells should be easily replaceable too, just pop em out when need replacing.
Battery bms/electronics would have to keep for fire hazard safety, but could likely simplify it also if these larger 4680cell format are used.

The more complex the more can go wrong, all components have a lifespan, the older the car the more issues arise, lets say you have a million mile battery, you want a car that will also last a million miles, with minimum repair/maintenance. That I think is sustainable approach.
 
Back
Top