Rivian's hot lunch

Don't know what Tesla's problems have to do with Rivian, let alone hearing "ponzi scheme" being uttered again. Kind of had to do a double-take, it's been since the Model 3 release that I've heard that.

Rivian is showing signs of pushing into eBikes:
https://electrek.co/2022/06/28/rivian-electric-bikes-inbound-former-specialized-cto-moves-to-rivian-signaling-e-bike-advancement/#more-243439
Wonder how it'll cost compared to their what, $6,000 kitchen?
 
CONSIDERABLE SHOUTING said:
Don't know what Tesla's problems have to do with Rivian, let alone hearing "ponzi scheme" being uttered again. Kind of had to do a double-take, it's been since the Model 3 release that I've heard that.

It's because neither of them makes enough profit to support their current and future operations, and instead they both depend on the willingness and ability of investors to keep buying in at ever higher prices. Those days are rapidly coming to an end.

Screenshot_20220629-122326.png

Tesla is at least posting "profits", but if you compare them to its total market capitalization, or you look at a few quarters of net change in cash reserves, it's not doing the thing.

Price to earnings ratio is over 91 today, and that's after a brutal fall from its peak. By and by, that number will regress to the mean (if the company doesn't crash and burn first).
 
I mean, they're trying to start 3 plants while interest rates are going back up, AND their bet on bitcoin also lost out. They got that nice double-whammy of "funny money is over, go get a real job".
 
Profits for all EV makers got hit badly by the Nickel price spike and Lithium price spike.

Lucky they have a strong LFP option they use in standard range model 3s.
 
CONSIDERABLE SHOUTING said:
I mean, they're trying to start 3 plants while interest rates are going back up, AND their bet on bitcoin also lost out. They got that nice double-whammy of "funny money is over, go get a real job".

A little thicker than that. Other ev auto makers are catching up while Putin told his billionaire buddies to sell their bitcoin and purchase Rubles. The Russians selling their bitcoin is about over, but other car manufactures catching up has just began.
Not to mention, that there is stupid, then their is Texas stupid. So good luck to Elon over his Texas manufacturing plants.

:D :bolt:
 
liveforphysics said:
Lucky they have a strong LFP option they use in standard range model 3s.
I'm really hoping we see more LFP options soon.

e-beach said:
A little thicker than that. Other ev auto makers are catching up while Putin told his billionaire buddies to sell their bitcoin and purchase Rubles. The Russians selling their bitcoin is about over, but other car manufactures catching up has just began.
Not to mention, that there is stupid, then their is Texas stupid. So good luck to Elon over his Texas manufacturing plants.

:D :bolt:
That too. I see Elon is trying to toe the line on twitter, trying to both come across as political but also maintain his scientific sheen. Not sure how long it'll last tbh
 
I'm personally indebted to Texas intellect. The mentor who helped me learn fluid dynamics and thermo dynamics far better than any of my professors understood it to teach it.
I tried to give him a gift of something I had a astrophysics phD friend who is a math genius spend weeks in MathCAD to create for him.

When I presented it to him, he acted impressed, then showed me he already had this calculation ability, and showed me the custom software he used. I was baffled as to how it was possible he already could calculate it, and asked him how on earth he got it.

He told me, "Hungry dogs find a way." It forever changed my perspective on not being afraid to attempt hard things while under-resourced.
 
Most of suffer from 1st world issues, we mostly need MORE to do less, or feel we do.
 

The Journal drives the problem home in another comment: “At the same time, monthly vehicle registrations for the R1T truck, a proxy for sales, have fallen from a peak of 1,829 in September to 950 in April of this year, according to data from S&P Global Mobility.”

Rivian might as well give up.

Rivian’s stock has taken a horrible beating. It is down by 44% in the last year. The overall market is up 20% for the same period. In the most recently reported quarter, Rivian had revenue of $661 million, on which it lost $1.3 billion. In the period a year ago, it lost $1.6 billion. That is barely progress.
[...]
Rivian’s run was over before it began.
 
I would love to see anyone other than the cult of tesla breaking into mass market ev sales, but I don't think Rivian has the legs to do it. Currently they truely do seem to be standing on the amazon investment, with the R1 apprently containing a deal of "less than optimal" component and construction methods from a cost perspective. As much as there are claims of Munro & Associates bias, they are the only ones actually providing public component level teardowns of these vehicles.
 
I would love to see anyone other than the cult of tesla breaking into mass market ev sales, but I don't think Rivian has the legs to do it.

Me? I'd prefer to see all the current players lose their, um, assets and give up. We don't need any more 5000 pound cars regardless what energy source they run on. Trying to make e-cars do the exact same things as overgrown, overpowered gas cars, only better, is a recipe for ruin.

It's high time we either limit cars to the legally permitted capabilities that most drivers actually use (getting to work and to wherever people feed their other addictions), or ban cars altogether. They have literally ruined the places where most of us live, and it's way past time to try another way.
 
It's high time we either limit cars to the legally permitted capabilities that most drivers actually use (getting to work and to wherever people feed their other addictions), or ban cars altogether. They have literally ruined the places where most of us live, and it's way past time to try another way.
Be careful what you wish for, ……
….those fossil fueled cars, trucks, trains, etc have literally built the places most of us live and still enable us to stay alive by providing essential services, foood, water, heat , materials, etc etc ….that alow us to live a civilised life.
 
We don't need any more 5000 pound cars
Agree, the weight of current vehicles and their actual functional use doesn't make sense. Most particularly the US disease we appear to be catching of oversize vehicles :cautious:.
A 4,100kg hummer, seating 5, with a total load capacity of 590kg (that could be exceeded by 4 large passengers!!) continues the hummer tradition of obscene excess.
Having said that, I understand and accept that enclosed personal transportation and utility vehicles have a real purpose and should be continued to be used.
 
Rivian will be making vehicles so long as investors buy and hold capital. They have vehicles, production, workers and chargers out right now so even in a worst-case scenario of bankruptcy or failure I believe they'd just be bought out by someone and continued under a different nameplate.
Wish I had bought Tesla stock back when they hit their low; with GM and Ford now signing up with their plug their stock took a nice jolt heehohohoheeho
 
….those fossil fueled cars, trucks, trains, etc have literally built the places most of us live and still enable us to stay alive by providing essential services, foood, water, heat , materials, etc etc ….that alow us to live a civilised life.
Yep. But 120 years ago you could say exactly the same thing about horses. No way to replace them and keep your civilized life!

We will always need things delivered, we will always need freight shipped and we will always need to move people. But there are better ways to do it than the ways we do it now (or did it 120 years ago.)
 
Yep. But 120 years ago you could say exactly the same thing about horses. No way to replace them and keep your civilized life!

We will always need things delivered, we will always need freight shipped and we will always need to move people. But there are better ways to do it than the ways we do it now (or did it 120 years ago.)
I dont think i would have said that, as the automobile was known by then, and fortunately many folk of that time realised that better solutions were possible.
Also, Im not convinced that life 120 yrs ago, would be considered “civilised” by todays standard ?..
Horse 5hit all over the streets, poverty, slavery, no electricity, etc etc..
But Chalo was suggesting banning cars altogether. ( of any power source) !….that would require a total restructuring of western society which depends on mobility of the population for .
Communication and Mobility are fundamentals of civilisation.
 
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I dont think i would have said that, as the automobile was known by then, and fortunately many folk of that time realised that better solutions were possible.
The automobile was indeed known by then. Nevertheless, a great many people were saying that the old, reliable horse would never be replaced by unreliable, dangerous, expensive cars and trucks.

In 1922 (only 101 years ago, not 120) a New York banker had this to say about the issue: "You see all those people on their bicycles riding along the boulevard? There is not as many as there was a year ago. The novelty is wearing off; they are losing interest. That’s just the way it will be with automobiles. People will get the fever; and later they will throw them away. My advice is not to buy the stock. You might make money for a year or two, but in the end you would lose everything you put in. The horse is here to stay, but the automobile is only a novelty - a fad."

In 1910 an ad in a Boston paper said this: "BEFORE you discard your horse and buy an auto it is well to think of the cost. Figure how much you spend for harness and then think of what new tires amount to. Figure up what it takes to feed Dobbin in a year and then think of gasoline, repairs and storage charges. Dobbin is worth what you paid for him two years - where's the man with an auto that can say the same? Come in and get a new harness instead of a new car and remember that Dobbin will take you through snow and mud as well as on good roads and that his carburetor is never out of order. "

Also, Im not convinced that life 120 yrs ago, would be considered “civilised” by todays standard ?

Probably not! And 120 years from now, today's gas cars (and their effects - climate change, air pollution, traffic, highway deaths etc) may well not be considered civilized. Things move on.

But Chalo was suggesting banning cars altogether.
Yes, Chalo has some extreme views. But moving in the right direction (smaller cars, electric instead of gas propulsion, better mass transit) gets us some of those benefits (less pollution, more livable cities, less traffic.)
 
Don't forget to include a modernized delivery system.

It's kind of stupid to have our goods delivered to a store where we then have to travel to in order to get the goods the last mile. Stores, no matter how big, need to go by the wayside like the small shops for milk, bread meat etc. did when the supermarket Walmart concept caught on.

🚚🚚
 
Don't forget to include a modernized delivery system.

It's kind of stupid to have our goods delivered to a store where we then have to travel to in order to get the goods the last mile. Stores, no matter how big, need to go by the wayside like the small shops for milk, bread meat etc. did when the supermarket Walmart concept caught on.

🚚🚚
Having local stores makes perfect sense when you don't have to drive to get to one. I recently returned from a three week tour with my band across France. We played in six cities from tiny to gigantic, but at no point was I farther than a convenient walk from groceries and any number of other everyday businesses. Now, these businesses don't have to be resupplied by smog-spewing, overpowered, highway capable trucks. Electric cargo LSVs would beer more than adequate for that job. But tolerating a few loud stinky nauseating trucks per day would be easier than coping with a constant barrage of lethal motor traffic throughout daylight hours and into the night.

The problem with cars isn't limited to their horrible direct effects on our lives (whether we choose to use them or not). Car-centric planning has deranged our land use and made every element of life worse than necessary. In France, even the tiniest village has its houses packed close together, along with whatever retail and service businesses exist there. If you're not leaving town, there's scarcely any reason to start up an engine. Farm fields come right up to the back yards, pretty much everywhere. With that kind of development pattern, it's not a coincidence that their food is so much better then Americans'. Growing it hasn't been offshored, or delegated to deep flyover country, with perverse incentives regarding shipping qualities versus eating qualities. And they haven't buried their best farmland under half acre lots, big box stores, sprawling highwayside businesses, and most of all parking.

Sidewalk cafes, restaurants, bars are everywhere in French cities. But stand next to any commercial street in the USA and it's easy to figure out why they're far less common here. It's because car traffic has ruined the experience of simply being present outside a building in a city.

Don't get me wrong-- French traffic customs still bend over backwards to accommodate car drivers at everyone else's expense. But car manufacturers and car drivers didn't despoil (as much) the physical layout of their cities. The French didn't obviously bulldoze their city cores for freeways and parking lots like USA did.

Cars have uncivilized us more than they've civilized us, by far. They've conditioned their drivers with contempt for the commons and contempt for their fellow citizens. Car-dependent urban design has exaggerated institutional racism, class stratification, and de facto segregation. And cars have turned city streets from the best places to be, into places few people want to spend their time in.
 
All of that is true. But you have to remember when those villages were built. Most of the US was built only 200 years ago. I wish we hadn't have made such bad decisions then, but we are stuck with what we have inherited. Hopefully better decisions will now be made. I consider the time we are now living in to be transitory. I think we are in a state of flux where even small changes made by regular people will make a real difference. (Hope springs eternal)

BTW don't assume that people won't just drive their car anyway even though the store is just a 5 min. walk away

We have to do what works: Law of the critters
 
All of that is true. But you have to remember when those villages were built. Most of the US was built only 200 years ago.

That's really no excuse at all. 100 years ago, the USA had densely built cities like other parts of the world, and we had arguably the best public transit anywhere. These things existed. They were purposely destroyed to promote automobile use, not avoided because cars were already present. It doesn't matter how old or young our cities are, because they already had sane city planning and land use before the one-two punch of car-centric planning and Jim Crow segregation.

Here's a picture of downtown Houston in 1920. It had streetcar lines and walkable neighborhoods everywhere:

s7526d07h_files_a78a029f-8b1e-4134-aadc-d84a4a139da5.jpg

And here's a photo of Downtown Houston in the 1970s. The functional human downtown didn't get bulldozed because it was a young city. It was knocked down in the service of evil:

Houston 1970s.png
 
Rivian was overvalued as a stock from the beginning, and kinda questionable as to having a solid business case.
A product of, and subsequent victim of the zero interest rate phenomenon.

I have seen a grand total of one Rivian vehicle in Utah, which is much like Texas in that it likes oversized vehicles.
I totally forgot about them and when i saw that truck i thought 'wow, they actually produced something..' 😅
 
Cars have uncivilized us more than they've civilized us, by far. They've conditioned their drivers with contempt for the commons and contempt for their fellow citizens. Car-dependent urban design has exaggerated institutional racism, class stratification, and de facto segregation. And cars have turned city streets from the best places to be, into places few people want to spend their time in.

Come live in the Netherlands, Chalo. Micah has just made a very nice video about Amsterdam:


BTW, I love the Rivian R1S!
 
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