jonescg
100 MW
Hillhater said:
And what do you think will happen in 2020 then?
Can EVs survive without subsidies ?
- Thread starter Hillhater
- Start date
And what do you think will happen in 2020 then?
jonescg
100 MW
If you would like to play with the numbers yourself, you can transcribe these:
Ianhill
1 MW
- Joined
- Sep 25, 2015
- Messages
- 2,871
jonescg said:
Absolute joke most governments are infiltrated by lobbiest just look at the right to repair bill going through US right nw, They are more than happy to get the fuel sources and have methods of releasing millions of years of c02 deposits on century time scales but when it comes to having a bash at finding a way of reversing that carbon process and storing it back down very little interest unless we can make it into something of value, There's lots of problems on many fronts if we can manage to clean our energy act up we still have the biggest problem to be festering in humans and that's the drug epidemics, creating gang culture that brings violence and a break down of society that is rapidly expanding but that's for a different thread and time.
Hillhater said:
2011 sales: 49
2018 sales: 1352
https://www.statista.com/statistics/789981/australia-electric-vehicle-sales/
In math, in the real world, 1352 > 49.
This sounds like all those posts about how "THIS TIME Musk is REALLY going to fail! Because he's selling NO CARS!"
Hillhater
100 TW
What point are you trying to make bill?billvon said:
The discussion was about the rate of growth.
But seeing as none of the figures from the different sources, (other than 49 for 2011), agree ...it is pointless debating detail !
( and the largest figure ..Tesla...is only an estimate !)
Hillhater
100 TW
Broadening the scope a little (worldwide) and considering the thread topic,..
..what do we think happened to EV sales in the 2nd half of 2019 ?
Something seems to have suppressed the sales below those of 2018 ....changes to rebates ?
..what do we think happened to EV sales in the 2nd half of 2019 ?
Something seems to have suppressed the sales below those of 2018 ....changes to rebates ?
TheBeastie
1 MW
At the end of the day, Tesla has done an awesome job of fully aligning "Performance" with "Lithium-ion/Electric" instead of just beastly combustion engines.
Luxury cars like Mercedes have proven there is a huge market for expensive luxury cars, Tesla proved there is the performance in electric, it's now just a slow process of electric taking over all luxury cars
.
The all-electric "Mercedes-Benz EQC" was named Australia's car of the year.
https://7news.com.au/sunrise/on-the-show/electric-mercedes-benz-named-australias-2020-car-of-the-year--c-673544
It's already coming to all premium cars, we all know about the Porsche Taycan, but now there is the electric Hummer complete with an expensive Super Bowl advert on TV.
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/first-look-at-gmcs-electric-hummer-comes-during-super-bowl-ad-2020-1?r=US&IR=T
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=USynJQIxW_E&feature=emb_logo
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luxury_vehicle
^Look at all these brands/cars, they are all going to be stuffed full of lithium-batteries and maybe even Fuel-cells one day.
https://www.ranker.com/list/expensive-car-brands-v1/werner-brandes
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Luxury_motor_vehicle_manufacturers
So electric is here forever because folks are willing to pay a premium for performance, maybe even fuel-cell EV for people who need extra-long range.
Yes I am dubious on EVs in the value end of the market, ICE will now be the car for the poor going forward.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-is-finally-delivering-on-musks-promises-which-are-only-getting-bigger-2020-01-29?mod=mw_quote_news
^Look at Telsa stock market performance it looks like Tesla is going to outlive most of the other car makers.
Even if EVs merely "displace" co2/greenhouse-gases/air-pollution in major cities elsewhere, this is still a huge gain even if it doesn't really solve the problem, it does help a lot with smog, and it is still a good start, and it's pretty clear most people are happy just doing that.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
*ADD*
This is the other half of the argument, if indeed the fact that the consumer now fully aligns "electric" with "luxury performance" wasn't already enough...
UK government plans to ban the sale of diesel and gasoline cars by 2035
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/04/uk-government-plans-to-ban-sale-of-diesel-and-gasoline-cars-by-2035.html?__source=twitter%7Cmain
^How are they going to do it? probably by ever-increasing the taxes on combustion cars, until they have taxed the crap out of them, most governments worldwide hate combustion vehicles and are now treating it like smoking tobacco, with a similar style of taxing. It's even better for the government since tobacco is easy to smuggle but petroleum fuel isn't.
Luxury cars like Mercedes have proven there is a huge market for expensive luxury cars, Tesla proved there is the performance in electric, it's now just a slow process of electric taking over all luxury cars
.The all-electric "Mercedes-Benz EQC" was named Australia's car of the year.
https://7news.com.au/sunrise/on-the-show/electric-mercedes-benz-named-australias-2020-car-of-the-year--c-673544
It's already coming to all premium cars, we all know about the Porsche Taycan, but now there is the electric Hummer complete with an expensive Super Bowl advert on TV.
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/first-look-at-gmcs-electric-hummer-comes-during-super-bowl-ad-2020-1?r=US&IR=T
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=USynJQIxW_E&feature=emb_logo
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luxury_vehicle
^Look at all these brands/cars, they are all going to be stuffed full of lithium-batteries and maybe even Fuel-cells one day.
https://www.ranker.com/list/expensive-car-brands-v1/werner-brandes
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Luxury_motor_vehicle_manufacturers
So electric is here forever because folks are willing to pay a premium for performance, maybe even fuel-cell EV for people who need extra-long range.
Yes I am dubious on EVs in the value end of the market, ICE will now be the car for the poor going forward.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-is-finally-delivering-on-musks-promises-which-are-only-getting-bigger-2020-01-29?mod=mw_quote_news
^Look at Telsa stock market performance it looks like Tesla is going to outlive most of the other car makers.
Even if EVs merely "displace" co2/greenhouse-gases/air-pollution in major cities elsewhere, this is still a huge gain even if it doesn't really solve the problem, it does help a lot with smog, and it is still a good start, and it's pretty clear most people are happy just doing that.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
*ADD*
This is the other half of the argument, if indeed the fact that the consumer now fully aligns "electric" with "luxury performance" wasn't already enough...
UK government plans to ban the sale of diesel and gasoline cars by 2035
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/04/uk-government-plans-to-ban-sale-of-diesel-and-gasoline-cars-by-2035.html?__source=twitter%7Cmain
^How are they going to do it? probably by ever-increasing the taxes on combustion cars, until they have taxed the crap out of them, most governments worldwide hate combustion vehicles and are now treating it like smoking tobacco, with a similar style of taxing. It's even better for the government since tobacco is easy to smuggle but petroleum fuel isn't.
Hillhater
100 TW
Actually , just to set the record straight, Australia may not have direct subsidies, but it does have significant tax incentives for EVs..jonescg said:
So for example in Victoria, your Tesla “S” gets a $7000 tax break
jonescg
100 MW
Interesting.
ACT has some of the highest salaries, as well as zero stamp duty on EVs.
SA had some kind of incentive at the local government level (now finished) and fairly low average salaries.
VIC has a reduction in rego and some stamp duty relief.
TAS has cheap clean power and generally the lowest incomes.
So you get figures like this:
ACT 436 EVs per million
NSW 110 EVs per million
NT 30 EVs per million
QLD 97 EVs per million
SA 171 EVs per million
TAS 149 EVs per million
VIC 146 EVs per million
WA 112 EVs per million
(Excludes Teslas as we don't have a state by state breakdown)
ACT has some of the highest salaries, as well as zero stamp duty on EVs.
SA had some kind of incentive at the local government level (now finished) and fairly low average salaries.
VIC has a reduction in rego and some stamp duty relief.
TAS has cheap clean power and generally the lowest incomes.
So you get figures like this:
ACT 436 EVs per million
NSW 110 EVs per million
NT 30 EVs per million
QLD 97 EVs per million
SA 171 EVs per million
TAS 149 EVs per million
VIC 146 EVs per million
WA 112 EVs per million
(Excludes Teslas as we don't have a state by state breakdown)
Hillhater
100 TW
Answering my own question , those figures seem to follow the downturn of the large EV market in China since the (partial) removal of incentives in July 2019Hillhater said:Broadening the scope a little (worldwide) and considering the thread topic,..
..what do we think happened to EV sales in the 2nd half of 2019 ?
Something seems to have suppressed the sales below those of 2018 ....changes to rebates ?
Rumour has it, the Chinese are reconsidering these incentives to boost the industry.
So, it suggests we may well know the answer to the original question of the thread !
boars
100 W
I feel like everything is going to be down this year regardless of the incentives or otherwise, the drama around COVID-19 is causing issues with all sorts of industries.
Am I personally worried, not really but it has had major impacts on manufacturing and supply chains that appear to be ongoing.
Can get some really cheap flights at the moment, with the risk of being stuck somewhere in lock-down.
Of course the drops you speak of are prior to COVID-19 but I think it will further compound whatever issues there are already occurring.
Could be a rough year.
Am I personally worried, not really but it has had major impacts on manufacturing and supply chains that appear to be ongoing.
Can get some really cheap flights at the moment, with the risk of being stuck somewhere in lock-down.
Of course the drops you speak of are prior to COVID-19 but I think it will further compound whatever issues there are already occurring.
Could be a rough year.
ZeroEm
1 MW
It will make all the companies rethink distribution and risk associated with it. Nervous myself but curious how it will change things.
Hillhater
100 TW
The downturn in EV sales starting last July, has NOTHING to do with CV 19 effects !
Its all due to the reduction in subsidies .
Its all due to the reduction in subsidies .
Where I am, Teslas seem to be selling very briskly, despite no longer having subsidies applied to them.
I reckon strength in the EV market in other right hand drive countries like UK and Japan will keep such cars moving in Australia too. EVs are not going away; they represent the main growth market for motor vehicles for the foreseeable future.
I reckon strength in the EV market in other right hand drive countries like UK and Japan will keep such cars moving in Australia too. EVs are not going away; they represent the main growth market for motor vehicles for the foreseeable future.
JackFlorey
100 kW
Downturn _starting_ last July? Let's look at the numbers!Hillhater said:
Total EV sales worldwide 2019:
Jan 159,468
Feb 119,541
Mar 224,335
Apr 166,200
May 179,270
Jun 264,591
Jul 157,144
Aug 160,106
Sept 183,393
Oct 149,552
Nov 176,547
Looks like there were dips in Apr, Jul and Oct - but increases the other eight months. And the year ended up 11% compared to July. Not bad.
And there's this:
=========================
Europe Electric Car Sales Surge By 121% In January 2020
MAR 01, 2020 at 7:33PM
Mark Kane
EV Sales Blog reports a near-record 74,663 new passenger plug-in car registrations - 121% more than a year ago and the first three-digit growth rate since 2015.
===========================
But by all means, short Tesla. Those people are doing so well.
Hillhater
100 TW
Sure, they will continue to sell into those market sectors that can afford them.
But the rate of full market penitration will be determined by affordability.and the china situation has shown how pricing and subsidies affect that rate
Did you notice that Teslas sales were down $2bn in Q4 2019, compared ro Q4 ‘18 ?
The first time ever Tesla YOY Quarterly sales have done that !
But the rate of full market penitration will be determined by affordability.and the china situation has shown how pricing and subsidies affect that rate
Did you notice that Teslas sales were down $2bn in Q4 2019, compared ro Q4 ‘18 ?
The first time ever Tesla YOY Quarterly sales have done that !
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/03/02/exclusive-mike-braun-proposes-to-rein-in-electric-vehicle-tax-credit-for-wealthy-elites/
Hillhater
100 TW
Yes..downturn from July onwards..compared to 2018....
July - Dec was 200,000 less than Jan-June ... thats -20% roughly
That has not happened before !
Hillhater said:Something seems to have suppressed the sales below those of 2018 ....changes to rebates ?
?? ..check you maths..or eyes !
July - Dec was 200,000 less than Jan-June ... thats -20% roughly
That has not happened before !
JackFlorey
100 kW
Yep, like every other product everywhere.Hillhater said:
Also agreed. And as battery prices drop and gas prices rise, the ratios will change again.
Of course. Attacking progressive environmental causes is what republicans do best. I bet he keeps that tax cut for the wealthiest Americans, though.
JackFlorey
100 kW
Cool. So an upturn from July to December becomes a downturn by the magic of Tesla-hater thinking!Hillhater said:
Hillhater
100 TW
What “upturn” ? Look at your own numbers that you posted !JackFlorey said:
How do you make a 20%..(200,000) reduction in those 6 months, an “upturn” ??
Your “Tesla tinted” glasses have screwed up your eyesight and thinking
JackFlorey
100 kW
July 2019: ~150,000Hillhater said:What “upturn” ? Look at your own numbers that you posted !
How do you make a 20%..(200,000) reduction in those 6 months, an “upturn” ??
Your “Tesla tinted” glasses have screwed up your eyesight and thinking
Dec 2019: ~280,000
In the reality-based community, 280,000 is greater than 150,000. Even if you REALLY REALLY hate Tesla.
Hillhater
100 TW
Ahh ! So cherry picking two months !
The comment was the comparason 2019 to 2018... or did you deliberately miss that ?
December is ALWAYS the highest sales...or did you ignor that detail as well
Dec 2019 ,..276k ,
.Dec 2018..290k
There was a significant sales DOWNTURN in the second half of 2019 !
... which co insides with the reduction in sales in china after the reduction of subsidies......got it ?
The comment was the comparason 2019 to 2018... or did you deliberately miss that ?
December is ALWAYS the highest sales...or did you ignor that detail as well
Dec 2019 ,..276k ,
.Dec 2018..290k
There was a significant sales DOWNTURN in the second half of 2019 !
... which co insides with the reduction in sales in china after the reduction of subsidies......got it ?
Dauntless
100 TW
JackFlorey said:
Yeah, how DARE that Republican try to make the rich pay more? If he were a Democrat he'd leave benefits for the rich in protective custody.
JackFlorey
100 kW
If he's trying to make the rich pay more, he's going to have to switch parties. The GOP's owners will not stand for such sacrilege.Dauntless said:
JackFlorey
100 kW
They were the two months you specifically asked about. How funny that you would cherrypick them, then accuse me of doing it!Hillhater said:
Your rapid backpedal is noted.
Here's an article sure to make all the Tesla-haters reach for their antacids. From the NYT:
=======================================
FRANKFURT — Until recently European auto executives regarded Tesla with something like bemusement. The electric car upstart from California was burning cash, struggling with production problems, and hedge funds were betting it would fail.
The car executives are not laughing anymore. Almost overnight, the Tesla Model 3 has become one of the best-selling cars in Europe. In December, only the Volkswagen Golf and Renault Clio sold more, according to data compiled by JATO Dynamics, a market research firm.
The success of the Model 3, only months after it went on sale in Europe, has come as a shock to industry executives who only months ago were ready to write Tesla off. The company was building cars in a tent, for goodness’ sake.
