Tesla expects global shortage of electric vehicle battery minerals

Jil

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With 50 to 100 kWh battery per vehicle and 2 millions electric cars produced in 2018, it was expected sooner or later.
https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-lithium-electric-tesla-exclusive-int/exclusive-tesla-expects-global-shortage-of-electric-vehicle-battery-minerals-sources-idUSKCN1S81QI
 
This is why we need higher whr/kg batteries before we have an EV revolution.
It is very unlikely that we have enough materials to put a battery with today's technology in the global fleet of cars.
Electric cars' price tags already limit adoption, even when they are subsidized. Car makers like Tesla cannot afford more expensive materials.

We also do not have enough oil in the future, so the situation with gasoline cars is grim as well.

Perhaps we should consider not using 3500lb metal cages as a primary form of transport.
 
neptronix said:
Perhaps we should consider not using 3500lb metal cages as a primary form of transport.
It's exactly the point. A bike, even a big one with a fat 1 kWh battery, consumes 50 to 100 times less material than a car.
A small 2-places Renault Twizy has a 6 kWh battery, and will mostly provide the same services than a Model 3 and its 80 kWh battery.
 
neptronix said:
It is very unlikely that we have enough materials to put a battery with today's technology in the global fleet of cars.

My gut feeling (based on hugely incomplete exploitation, the gigantic mass of the earth and relative abundance of even "rare" compounds) would be that we probably do, but I know absolutely nothing about this. Got some numbers to back up your view?
 
flat tire said:
My gut feeling (based on hugely incomplete exploitation, the gigantic mass of the earth and relative abundance of even "rare" compounds) would be that we probably do, but I know absolutely nothing about this. Got some numbers to back up your view?

I do not have any facts or figures, but do consider that a company like Tesla is having supply problems with certain minerals ( like cobalt ) while only 1-2% of the world's car fleet is electric.

Maybe we figure out some magic new way to get all these materials in the future and i'm shortsighted, but if we're having troubles with economically producing these materials now, i think it's pretty safe to say that, barring something revolutionary like 'fracking', the trouble producing these materials will only increase as time goes on.

It could be that the environmental impact of large scale electrification of cars is more environmentally damaging than the fossil fuel stuff we're trying to get away from, if we do it before the amount of battery material is low enough.

There is no low hanging fruit in cleaner energy, but the fruit for reducing our energy needs is dropping off the tree and rotting on the ground..
 
Supply shortages happen ALL the time. There are tons of causes besides depletion of the resource. Also consider how many batteries are made overall. EVs total, especially passenger EVs, are a fraction of total battery production and Tesla doesn't even make all the batteries for those.

Extraction / processing has got to be pretty small now too, compared to what it can be. Battery demand is only going up and nobody is crying that the planet is actually running out of this stuff.
 
neptronix said:
This is why we need higher whr/kg batteries before we have an EV revolution.
Or just batteries that use less cobalt per whr. (Which is happening.)
It is very unlikely that we have enough materials to put a battery with today's technology in the global fleet of cars.
Well, we certainly don't now. But then again, when we started building cars, we didn't have enough steel in the entire world to fully replace horses. It took decades to get there.
Electric cars' price tags already limit adoption, even when they are subsidized. Car makers like Tesla cannot afford more expensive materials.
Well, that depends on how _much_ more expensive they are, right?

Cobalt currently costs around $210 a kilogram. A Tesla used to use 11kg per battery pack. Now it uses 4.5kg. That's $945, or 2.3% of the cost of a $40,000 car. So if it doubles, that's another 2.3% price increase. Doesn't seem insurmountable. But if the amount of cobalt used in the battery keeps declining, it could well be a wash - or even drop the price.
 
Personal cars are an insoluble problem no matter what powers them. They're a callously indifferent, gluttonous waste of resources that serves craven laziness on one hand and unchecked greed on the other, while destroying everything good it touches.

Working out what tech will allow every blinkered moron to keep driving his own car as we burn through the world we live in is clearly in the same category as shuffling the deck chairs as the Titanic sinks.

History will judge us mercilessly, if there are still any people around to record history.

billvon said:
Cobalt currently costs around $210 a kilogram. A Tesla used to use 11kg per battery pack. Now it uses 4.5kg. That's $945, or 2.3% of the cost of a $40,000 car. So if it doubles, that's another 2.3% price increase. Doesn't seem insurmountable. But if the amount of cobalt used in the battery keeps declining, it could well be a wash - or even drop the price.

The estimated world reserves of cobalt are a little over 7 million metric tons. That represents about one single kilogram for each person who is alive in the world right now, but it's all the cobalt we have for ourselves and everyone yet to come. So you're talking about how many other people's shares of this finite and versatile resource you need to use in an ugly, dangerous machine whose purpose is to help you be a lazy, self-stroking piece of crap.
 
Chalo said:
Personal cars are an insoluble problem no matter what powers them.

Problem is you're an extremist, opposite of the one that shall not be named. Any extremism is a non-starter, as anything you say will be ignored on the grounds of the messenger, not the message.
 
cricketo said:
Chalo said:
Personal cars are an insoluble problem no matter what powers them.

Problem is you're an extremist, opposite of the one that shall not be named. Any extremism is a non-starter, as anything you say will be ignored on the grounds of the messenger, not the message.

Abolitionists were extremists. They were also right.

If civilization survives what people are doing right now with cars and consumption-driven capitalism, we'll be regarded as worse than slavers.

The fatal flaw of the moderate is that he can look at a stark moral, ethical, logical, practical, or scientific choice between right and wrong and think the best way must lie somewhere in between.
 
flat tire said:
My gut feeling (based on hugely incomplete exploitation, the gigantic mass of the earth and relative abundance of even "rare" compounds) would be that we probably do, but I know absolutely nothing about this. Got some numbers to back up your view?

Here are the numbers I found concerning the lithium :
- An average battery has 160 grams of lithium per kWh.
https://www.researchgate.net/deref/http%3A%2F%2Fpublications.lib.chalmers.se%2Frecords%2Ffulltext%2F230991%2Flocal_230991.pdf
- The global resources of lithium are estimated to 62 million tons. Recovarble reserves are 14 million tons. The 2018 production is 85 000 tons.
https://www.usgs.gov/centers/nmic/mineral-commodity-summaries
- If we consider 80 kWh lithium battery per electric car on average, we need 12.8 kg of lithium per car, which means we can build in theory, with lithium reserves and before recycling, 1.1 billion cars. Of course batteries are needed for many other applications (grid storage, home storage, portable devices, etc.).
- Same considerations with an average 20 kWh battery for smaller cars (and numerous fast charging stations), 4.4 billion cars.
- Same considerations with an average 1 kWh battery for e-bikes : 87 billion bikes ;)
- If we consider the resources instead of reserves, we can multiply those numbers by 4.

I have found other numbers about lithium contents, which are 0.6 to 0.9 kg of lithium carbonate per kWh. But the USGS resources data are considered in lithium content (which I understand as lithium-metal equivalent), so I think 0.16kg Li per kWh of battery is correct.

If you have other data/calculations for lithium and other battery components (cobalt, etc.), please share :)
 
Due to demand out-stripping supply, the price of natural rubber increased by 1000% in a decade and was only halted by the 2008 financial crash. The bulk of the world's rubber production is under threat of a collapse by an untreatable infectious blight to which the trees have no resistance. Only rigourous quarantine measures currently prevent this. Natural rubber is considered essential for the production of vehicle and aircraft tires such that the supply is considered and international security issue with the potential to destabilise global trade. Correspondingly the blight is considered a potential biological weapon by the UN.

So yeah, there's 101 things that could potentially cripple global transport if mankind weren't smart enough to find technological alternatives. Cobalt and lithium are probably near the bottom of that list.

I'd be disappointed if in 20 years time we're still using lithium-based batteries for the bulk of our battery needs. Cobalt is likely to become little more than a trace ingredient before then.
 
Chalo and I don't agree on what makes for the most sensible bicycle design, but I agree with everything he has said on this thread.

My wife and I were both fully aware of where the world was headed in the early 1970's. We figured we'd probably all die in a mushroom cloud before we needed to worry too much about it. Turns out we may have been wrong about that.

There are few good options, at this late date, for those of us lucky enough to live in the new Rome...even fewer for the rest of humanity.

Lots of good information on this physicist's site, and many others.

https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2011/10/sustainable-means-bunkty-to-me/
 
Chalo said:
Abolitionists were extremists. They were also right.

If civilization survives what people are doing right now with cars and consumption-driven capitalism, we'll be regarded as worse than slavers.

Abolitionists are and were right ( morally ), but every advanced society built itself on slavery as an economic foundation. You either chose advanced society ( which polarizes it's citizens into winners and losers ), or you had a society where everyone is on equal ground, but everyone also lives a basic subsistence lifestyle. ( IE tribal or rural farm life )

The actual argument between abolitionists and those in favor of the institution of slavery was whether we have an advanced society or not. You might have noticed that pretty much every advanced society that built impressive infrastructure and also had embraced slavery to an extreme. You'll be very pressed to find an example on the contrary.

You will notice that slavery started to disappear globally when we invented machines and power sources to operate them. Oh yes, some people got to stand on a moral high ground and say they did something, but actually it was the technologists that were responsible for making ending the debate possible.

We are so far into advanced society that enslaving a human would cost quite a bit more than the robot that's going to do the human's boring and dangerous job. Arguing for human slavery with today's technology as an alternative is as impractical as arguing AGAINST slavery before we had machines and inexpensive energy.


We have this same problem with electric vehicles and alternative energy as well. It is obvious to at least 90% of the population that burning fossil fuels is a bad idea. Yet both Rick the Trump supporter, who thinks of his diesel emissions to be 'plant food', and Sally the Hillary supporter, who thinks burning gasoline is a hate crime both put petroleum products into their oversized 'murican cars so they can get to work, rejecting options such as public transport, bicycles, motorcycles, walking, electric vehicles, hydrogen vehicles, etc.

Why won't they give up their cars? are they just immoral people?
The reality is that Rick and Sally like living in the suburbs, where they have more personal space and peace to enjoy than any human throughout history. The suburb was made possible by the automobile. The suburban design is high speed roads, long distances, and lots of sprawl. It is an anti bicycle, anti car, anti public transport design.

Rick and Sally would prefer to not live in the urban area where there's more crime, more noise, more traffic, less peace, higher expenses, less social cohesion, less freedom, and less space.

Both Rick and Sally would probably buy an electric vehicle if it fit into their budget and the range limitation of today's batteries was acceptable to them. But they wouldn't buy a smaller kind of vehicle with lower impact because their roads are full of 4000+lb tanks and they would likely be killed for doing so. Nobody in the suburb has the guts to be this guy and buck the trend:

[youtube]cAcy7EVRpXc[/youtube]

( also, technically the above vehicle has questionable legal status and there is approximately zero infrastructure built with it in mind, and adding a motor to allow it to travel the speed of a car would be illegal. )

Jeffrey the urbanite who lives in 300 square feet and walks to work ( 2 blocks away ) can't understand why we can't just get rid of cars, but he also hates the rap music intruding into his apartment and the person above him who won't stop stomping, and the other neighbor with the loud baby. Eventually once he reaches his late 20's, he will buy an automobile and move to the suburbs as well. He also has no interest in being a pioneer and would only buy a low impact vehicle in a gasoline price squeeze. He'd like a Tesla, but cannot afford it because he is still paying off that $80k student loan debt.

He walked to work in the 'urbs because it was convenient. He drives a car in the suburbs because it is convenient. He may talk about how serious global warming is, but just like everyone else, he choses the most convenient and practical transport available to him, over which one is the best for the planet.

We cannot say it all comes down to morality. Technology, legal, and infrastructure problems stand in the way of choosing better options. As long as the cheap gas keeps flowing, it is less likely that anyone has interest in taking a less practical option than the 4000lb environment destroyer we have based all of our cities on.

We are facing the same practicality problem that abolitionists faced in the 1800's. The real heroes were the technologists which made an alternative practical. We also need people to start tipping the infrastructure away from the car dominated design which acts like a vendor lock-in for the entire country.

More courage, forward thinking, and practical solutions will get us out of this mess. Moralizing has a very bad track record of getting anything done. ( humans are amoral by nature and will virtue signal their ideal values but their actions speak louder than their words )
 
neptronix said:
More courage, forward thinking, and practical solutions will get us out of this mess. Moralizing has a very bad track record of getting anything done. ( humans are amoral by nature and will virtue signal their ideal values but their actions speak louder than their words )

That was a very thoughtful and a very nihilistic post. Anyone can live according to his values, if they're founded in reality. For me, it not only led to a life in the central city, but also a vastly less expensive way of life and a much greater degree of freedom and discretion over my time than I would have enjoyed if I had sleepwalked my way along in a way that you call "practical" but I recognize to be both uneconomic and insane.

Murder-suicides are a suburban thing. Mass shootings are a suburban thing.
Those miserable bastards would have been better off to choose no car, no kids, no career track (and no corollary problems). That option exists for everyone until they screw it up somehow.

Cars and suburbs imply each other. No new tech will carry people to their vacuous bedroom "communities"; they'll use whatever passes for a car in their place and time. What is truly impractical is to disregard the proven technique of putting people close to where they need to go, and believing that stuffy awful little velocars could ever offset the gluttony, selfishness, and inconsideration of the 'burbs. Cities and villages are both time-proven; suburbs are a recent experiment that is demonstrating its failings before our eyes.

People "need" cars like they "need" 3500 square foot houses made out of packing material. They choose these things because they're busted inside, or because they're letting someone else with a mercenary agenda decide what it is they want. Fortunately, the profit motive is also driving a trend towards dense housing in economically and culturally sufficient places, and eventually that trend should bear fruit.
 
Both Chalo and neptronix are way more optimistic than me. Sometime between now and 2050 we will have major grain harvest failures. It won't matter if you live in the city, or the suburbs, or the country. Our fragile veneer of civilization will fall away, and the hairless apes we pretend not to be will be front and center.
 
Hey Warren;
I do believe humanity is headed off a cliff just like you. However, i see it differently. I feel very fortunate to live during these times of excess, because what follows will be mass suffering and starvation which may last centuries until the population equalizes to a sustainable level. They will write books about how you and me lived and fantasize about getting back to our comfy lifestyle.

If you spend any amount of time worrying about where things are headed, you will miss the precious experience of living at the end of the holocene. Thinking about the future is extremely depressing but if you have zero control over the circumstance, then you are just mentally flogging yourself by focusing on what you're losing versus what you have.

I still like theorizing and talking about feasible solutions anyway because you know, engineer mind. It's fun to think about what could be. I will continue to live my frugal low impact lifestyle and teach others to do the same regardless of how unpopular it is when energy and goods are cheap today. These things will be greatly appreciated later on in the economic cycle.
 
Chalo said:
They're a callously indifferent, gluttonous waste of resources that serves craven laziness on one hand and unchecked greed on the other, while destroying everything good it touches.
So are ebikes - to people living in Sandire, Niger.
The estimated world reserves of cobalt are a little over 7 million metric tons. That represents about one single kilogram for each person who is alive in the world right now, but it's all the cobalt we have for ourselves and everyone yet to come.
Yep. Fortunately we won't need much cobalt overall.
So you're talking about how many other people's shares of this finite and versatile resource you need to use in an ugly, dangerous machine whose purpose is to help you be a lazy, self-stroking piece of crap.
We are all lazy, self stroking pieces of crap at a global level.
 
Chalo said:
Cars and suburbs imply each other. No new tech will carry people to their vacuous bedroom "communities"; they'll use whatever passes for a car in their place and time. What is truly impractical is to disregard the proven technique of putting people close to where they need to go, and believing that stuffy awful little velocars could ever offset the gluttony, selfishness, and inconsideration of the 'burbs. Cities and villages are both time-proven; suburbs are a recent experiment that is demonstrating its failings before our eyes.

Amen to that. Cities subsidize the suburbs & the rural areas. Suburbs in turn further subsidize the rural areas. Poor urban neighborhoods subsidize the affluent; it is a ubiquitous condition of the American development pattern. People who think that living off the grid, away from others, and totally self-sufficient are deluding themselves as their "freedom" has been afforded by the taxes paid by others. Working together is the only way forward. That's why towns and villages are the key, not the endless exurban sprawl with its unsustainable long-term infrastructure liabilities.

Read the many articles at StrongTowns or this one in particular: https://www.strongtowns.org/journal/2017/1/10/poor-neighborhoods-make-the-best-investment for more insight.
 
But the Hummers and Suburbans are work horses of the soccer mom all across North America, oh what will them Milfs do ???
You think that Kardashian beeeatch wants to be seen in a ShhhhhhMart Car ???
Selfies n all

Perhaps Hydrogen is the way of the future for transport. Just fill'er up with water pls, then in an eons age, water will be the new "black gold"

Chalo said:
Personal cars are an insoluble problem no matter what powers them. They're a callously indifferent, gluttonous waste of resources that serves craven laziness on one hand and unchecked greed on the other, while destroying everything good it touches.
 
Warren said:
Both Chalo and neptronix are way more optimistic than me. Sometime between now and 2050 we will have major grain harvest failures. It won't matter if you live in the city, or the suburbs, or the country. Our fragile veneer of civilization will fall away, and the hairless apes we pretend not to be will be front and center.
People have been predicting that "the end is near" since they learned how to speak. Yet the long term trends have been toward better conditions for human beans. You were wrong about the nukes. The vast majority of trends are in a positive direction. Big odds that yer wrong here too.

Chalo is correct that velomobiles wont be an answer in the suburbs. My bet is that on-demand self-driving cars will be the next big thing in transportation. But he's wrong to suggest that living in the suburbs is somehow more dangerous. The suburbs are safer. Though the gap between the denser parts of cities and suburbs has narrowed because crime rates in denser areas has dropped faster than the suburbs over the last 25 or so year. But it is still less violent in the suburbs. It is overall significantly safer almost everywhere in the U.S. than it was 30 years ago.

Happiness, fulfillment and inner peace is determined far more by internal mindset than by external conditions - once basic needs are met.

Society will continue to evolve in a fairly shortsighted way, but it will probably continue to get generally better for more and more people, because we are getting more knowledgeable and more powerful and because we are generally inclined to try to improve things for ourselves, our families and our neighbors.

I think our view of what is actually happening in the world gets hugely distorted because negative and sensational news is more intriguing than good news and slow, moderate progress.
 
wturber said:
People have been predicting that "the end is near" since they learned how to speak.
Yep. I remember Paul Erlich claiming that "the battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. At this late date nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate." His book contained all the data he collected; all his proofs and explanations. Didn't happen due to new farming methods.
I think our view of what is actually happening in the world gets hugely distorted because negative and sensational news is more intriguing than good news and slow, moderate progress.
And we have better and better mechanisms to target, deliver and monetize that sensational news.
 
Most of you guys seem to miss a quite important point: all the quantities you mention are actually "theoretical exploitable resources considering today's extraction technologies and cost of said extraction".

So basically, that's extremely far from the actual quantity of available material on earth. Lithium, for instance, is present all over in the oceans. The quantities are gigantic, more than we would ever need in a thousand civilisations. The only issue is that it wouldn't worth it to extract these with today's, 2019, technologies. But there's no doubt that the technologies will evolve, and that what is currently not economically viable to extract will become worth considering as time goes on.

That's basically what happened with oil, we're being told for decades that the end of the supply is near, but it turns out to be postponed more and more every day with the discovery of new oil fields and the rise in technology that makes previously unviable sources economically viable.

And that's not even accounting for the constant progress on recycling. It will be much easier to recover a big battery in a car pack than recovering individual cells from other devices. So the material entropia should be somehow limited, especially if the price of those materials goes up.
 
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