Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

billvon said:
..... We will just dial back fossil fuel combustion until the ecosphere can maintain the CO2 levels at a new (slightly higher) level - but a level that will not cause as much warming. Say, 350ppm.
Care to remind us of the evidence that shows CO2 has any influence on global warming ?
Or, what the plan is to reduce CO2 back down to 350 ppm ?
 
Hillhater said:
Care to remind us of the evidence that shows CO2 has any influence on global warming ?
Sure.

CO2 is a greenhouse gas - fact.
Higher concentrations of CO2 cause more heat to be retained - fact.

If, say, the Sun were increasing its output, the entire planet - top to bottom - would warm. If the Sun's output remained the same, and the greenhouse effect increased, the lower atmosphere would warm while the upper atmosphere cooled (i.e. more heat retained, less radiated.) In fact, the lower atmosphere is warming while the upper atmosphere is cooling, thus demonstrating the greenhouse gases are the cause.
Or, what the plan is to reduce CO2 back down to 350 ppm ?
Sure.

Replacement of transportation fuels with electrical power sourced by renewables. Research and development into better/safer/cheaper nuclear reactors. Buildout of wind, solar and storage. Upgrades to the grid - adding control and resilience. Long distance HVDC transmission lines. Repowering hydro. Land use changes by changes in global diet. Reduction of population through women's education. Continual efficiency improvements in lighting, motor drives, pumping, transportation and HVAC.

To name just a few.
 
billvon said:
CO2 is a greenhouse gas - fact.
Only one of many atmospheric gas’s with such apparent properties..some much more effective than CO2
So why the focus on CO2 ?
billvon said:
Higher concentrations of CO2 cause more heat to be retained - fact...
Well, No.! Its not a fact ,.... its a Hypothesis , a Theory that has never been proven or even demonstrated.
A “fact” is something you can demonstrate, measure, repeat, and get the same precise result over and over.
Unless you have some evidence to the show CO2 causing atmospheric temperature increase.?

billvon said:
If, say, the Sun were increasing its output, .....Yada yada..
.....thus demonstrating the greenhouse gases are the cause....
Again , No, just another Theory, based on a correlation ( and some very suspect data)
As you well know , just because GHG’s are increasing, and temperatures are increasing (your words) does not demonstrate that the GHG’ s are the cause. Its just a correlation . There are many other potential causes .

Or, what the plan is to reduce CO2 back down to 350 ppm ?
billvon said:
Replacement of transportation fuels with electrical .....yada, yada, ...... transportation and HVAC....
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Hmmm ? Lots of ideas, ..... But what makes you believe all of that could make any significant impact on the atmospheric CO2 level ?
.... especially if you cannot clearly demonstrate how much of the CO2 is anthropogenic ?
.....and very Pointless if CO2 is not the demon planet cooking gas you believe it to be.
 
sendler2112 said:
So far, increases in renewable energy deployment have not led to a reduction in fossil fuel usage globally.

Rubbish. In many first world countries, with stable energy demand, fossil fuel use has been reduced by renewables. The only reason the effect isn't seen globally is because it's swamped by the rapidly increasing demand in the developing world, which has parially been met by renewables but the majority has been met with increased fossil fuel use. Without renewables the amount of new fossil fuel generation would have been greater.

Hillhater said:
..consider why France does not need coal or gas plants ?...
.....because they do not have to back up large amounts of intermittent wind or solar. !

Further nonsense. France is heavily dependent on imported power (from Germany of all places!) because their nuclear plants run out of capacity in winter, suffer water shortages in the summer or are offline for maintenance or repairs. In autumn 2016 20 of their 58 reactors were offline for inspections.

Nuclear power certainly has its benefits but it is not without it's problems.
 
Punx0r said:
. France is heavily dependent on imported power (from Germany of all places!) because their nuclear plants run out of capacity in winter, suffer water shortages in the summer or are offline for maintenance or repairs. In autumn 2016 20 of their 58 reactors were offline for inspections.
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.?? Heavily dependent ??
You may want to check your sources.
France, like most European countries, works with its neighbours to balance demand across the European grid.
It certainly imports power from Germany, (and others ), but it is a net EXPORTER of power to all its neighbours !
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There is a big difference between importing power to cover a planned maintenance/inspection program,..and needing backup randomly due to the erratic supply from wind and solar

And European energy trade Records do not register any exports from Germany to France last year (or this) ?
iFnzcu.jpg
 
Punx0r said:
sendler2112 said:
So far, increases in renewable energy deployment have not led to a reduction in fossil fuel usage globally.

Rubbish. In many first world countries, with stable energy demand, fossil fuel use has been reduced by renewables. The only reason the effect isn't seen globally is because it's swamped by the rapidly increasing demand in the developing world, which has parially been met by renewables but the majority has been met with increased fossil fuel use. Without renewables the amount of new fossil fuel generation would have been greater.

GLOBALLY. So the statement is not rubbish. There is only one world and we are all stuck here together. And I must must remind you once again that "electricity" is still just a small part of "energy". So new "electricity" capacity may soon see a greater share of addition from wind and solar. And whatever we can build out will be much better than nothing. Especially if we could design for maximum service life and rebuildability (200 year solar panel? and turbine blades?) rather than cheapest price point and highest performance.
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But increases in "energy" consumption are still about 4:1 carbon fuel unfortunately. And increasing energy consumption is still exponential, GLOBALLY, along with our economic growth, material throughput, and population due to our current socio-economic system. Please wake up people. We are not going to build our way out of this jam. The system needs to change.
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Hillhater said:
.?? Heavily dependent ??
You may want to check your sources.
France, like most European countries, works with its neighbours to balance demand across the European grid.
It certainly imports power from Germany, (and others ), but it is a net EXPORTER of power to all its neighbours !

As often with amateurs you know some basics, but you lack the understanding of the details, but believe that you are an expert. You aren't.

"Dependency" is something that you can not read out of import/export balances you linked.

The last critical shortage of electricity in Western Europa has been during February 2012.

Caused by an almost fatal combination of several effects, the most important:

- Very cold weather increased the electricity demand of up to 100GW in France
- shortage of gas storage capacity because of the cold and speculants wanting to gain maximum profit from calculated shortages (forbidden now)
- Russia slowed down gas exports because of domestic demand
- German gas power plants ha contracts that forced gas power plants to shut down before other gas consumers (new contracts have been made after that event)
- Germany shut down 8 nukes in 2011 after Fukushima
- Gundremmingen C (German nuke) was shut down unplanned. I don't know details about the nukes in France at that time.

So during the worst crises with gas power reducing electricity production in Southern Germany and extremly high electricity demand in France, every available power plant running that could run (two power plants in Germany had been forced to produce electricity by BNetzA) the real situation has been, that France was on the verge of a nation wide Brown-out, but Germany was able to export a few GW to them at electricity prices up to 2€/kWh and so saved them a large brown out.

February 2012 was the last time in Western Europe when demand was almost higher than possible supply and it was France, the large exporter of electricity, that desperatly lacked the capacity from its own power generation.

Main reason for the "French problem" is exactly their high amount of nukes in France. Those produce a lot of energy France can not use and has to export. On the other hand those expensive running nukes that can not follow the load do not leave room for enough peakers so France does not have enough power capacity to meet Peak demand Situation and always had to rely on their neigbours for buying electricity during Peak demand times, mainly from Germany.

The Problem of Feb 2012 was, that Germany at that time was "only" able to provide a few GW extra and France need even more power to meet their extremly high demand than usual.

http://www.pfbach.dk/firma_pfb/bundesnetzagentur_netzbericht_zustandwinter11_12.pdf (in German)

Other situations have been less critical in recent years, for excample drought and heat related problems in France, when they need to shut down some of their nukes at Rhone & Co to save life in the rivers usually Germany now has an excess of solar power to export to France...

Yes, over the year France is a net exporter of electricity, but during peak demand they have to Import.

Main reason for that is their dependency on nuclear power with almost all of them simply are not able to regulate production to meet the domestic demand.
 
sendler2112 said:

If this prediction of the IEA would become true humanity would be doomed.

Thankfully IEA (the puppet of the global oil industry) predictions have a history of always being way of, especially they always underestimated solar and wind and by an amount that is not even laughable.

The amount of solar power IEA predicted in 2010 for 2050 was already surpased in 2015.

This can not be explained by incompetence, this must be a deliberate effort in spraeding FUD to promote oil use for their masters.
 
I've been told (third hand from somone in the industry so not verified) that during cold winter periods the French government pays businesses that own backup generators to disconnect from the grid and run on diesel to aid grid stability.

Along with utilising internectors from your neighbours it's a reasonable, pragamatic solution to transient shortages (or supluses) in your own generating capacity. It's just interesting that this requirement for occasional backup is usually reserved as a criticism only of renewable energy.
 
jonescg said:
Yeah that graph is bollocks.

IEA predictions vs reality of photovoltaic:

Twitter_Auke_Hoekstra_IEA_PV-Vorhersagen-1024x512.jpg


source: https://www.pv-magazine.com/2018/11/20/iea-versus-solar-pv-reality/

And a nice read about about US EIA(!) predictions of renewable energies:

https://cleantechnica.com/2016/05/15/us-eia-responds-cleantechnica-lettercriticism-energy-forecasts/
 
Cephalotus said:
Hillhater said:
.?? Heavily dependent ??
You may want to check your sources.
France, like most European countries, works with its neighbours to balance demand across the European grid.
It certainly imports power from Germany, (and others ), but it is a net EXPORTER of power to all its neighbours !
...."..........
Yes, over the year France is a net exporter of electricity, but during peak demand they have to Import.

Main reason for that is their dependency on nuclear power with almost all of them simply are not able to regulate production to meet the domestic demand.
You just took 500 words to confirm what i said initially...Frances generation system is deliberately designed to work in conjunction with its neighbours in Europe.. it would be uneconomical for every country to carry surplus capacity to cover every variation in demand. Only remote island states have to cater for that eventuality..
And i repeat, there is a big difference between planning to support predicted variations, daily and seasonal, and having to be prepared for random ,unpredictable changes from wind and solar generation.
That is why Germany is has a 100% generation overcapacity
..for those periods when wind and solar are not generating at all

Correct,.. i am not an expert on international power generation or distribution, ...but as we say,... “even blind Freddy”. Can see enough to know which of those countries made the smartest decision !
 
Hillhater said:
Correct,.. i am not an expert on international power generation or distribution, ...but as we say,... “even blind Freddy”. Can see enough to know which of those countries made the smartest decision !

Hindsight is always clearer. So lets wait and see...

Germany has some experience with the cost of decomissioning nukes. Maybe more experience than any other country so far.

France has some, too.

Amazing thing is that France has excatly no idea who should pay for that costs in France.

My prediction is that France will keep their old nukes running for yoears and years to come. They ant to rund them für 60 years now, this is way outside their design Parameters and even those old design based on that paramters would not consideres safe for a new nuke power plant today.
Building new ones has become ultra expensive, for decomissioning the old ones there is no money left.

Even a monkey can predict, that somehow, someday one of those old nukes will have an accident. Of course entirely at the surprise of everyone involved.
The same as in Fukushima. Who could ever have imagined a 10m Tsunami there? Did happen in the past, but why should it happen again. Impossible.
An exploding nuke in France? Impossible.

Who could imagine that a 60 year old reactors steel container which already has shown cracks will someday leak or desintegrate? Impossible.

There is a book about it, which I didn't read: „Nucléaire, danger immédiat“

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Price comparison for new nukes vs new solar + wind + storage in the Visegard countries, which still think about building new nukes:

https://www.greenpeace-energy.de/fileadmin/docs/pressematerial/Hinkley_Point/2018-04_25_ENERGY_BRAINPOOL_Visegrad_Study_2018_April.pdf
 
Cephalotus said:
sendler2112 said:

If this prediction of the IEA would become true humanity would be doomed.

Thankfully IEA (the puppet of the global oil industry) predictions have a history of always being way of, especially they always underestimated solar and wind and by an amount that is not even laughable.

The amount of solar power IEA predicted in 2010 for 2050 was already surpased in 2015.

This can not be explained by incompetence, this must be a deliberate effort in spraeding FUD to promote oil use for their masters.

You ( and most green proponents and websites) are often confusing added CAPACITY with PRODUCTION. This chart is just showing actual data up to 2015 for PRODUCTION. Which for Germany's solar for example, PRODUCTION will average about 1/8 of installed CAPACITY due to capacity factor. So then your next normal human tendency is to blame an outgroup for your own misunderstanding and misinformation and the dissonance it is causing you. This is all natural human behavior and it must be overcome by featuring the newer, logic capable parts of the brain to let go of consensus trance and previous bias to let in new information that you may not have been exposed to yet. The charts are correct for the actual data up to 2015 so there is no sense getting mad at data.
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It becomes obvious there a few types of deniers. Each will prove just as dangerous as the other in the end.
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sendler2112 said:
You ( and most green proponents and websites) are often confusing added CAPACITY with PRODUCTION.

I confuse nothing technical. I may confuse some words and lack the argumenting skills, because English is not my native tongue.

We are looking at growth rates. Capacity and production can be considered roughly direct proportional on a world wide view, so growth rates can be considered proportional, too.

I hope you are able to understand now how to read the charts.

From cummulated energy production you can calculate the installation of new capacity. That has been done already buy others. I gave you the links.

The truth is: The IEA prediction in the WEO are purest bullshit for RE and have always been.

The charts are correct for the actual data up to 2015 so there is no sense getting mad at data.

And have always been wrong for the future.

And not wrong because predicting the future is difficult, not even wrong by "methodicaly underestimating" RE, not even trieing to camouflage a lie about RE,...

They more or less tell the world that investments in new RE do not exist.

This guy put much more effort into this IEA (=oil lobby) scam than I'm willing to to:

https://steinbuch.wordpress.com/2017/06/12/photovoltaic-growth-reality-versus-projections-of-the-international-energy-agency/
 
Cephalotus said:
sendler2112 said:
You ( and most green proponents and websites) are often confusing added CAPACITY with PRODUCTION.

I confuse nothing technical. I may confuse some words and lack the argumenting skills, because English is not my native tongue.

We are looking at growth rates. Capacity and production can be considered roughly direct proportional on a world wide view, so growth rates can be considered proportional, too.

I'm sorry but it seems that you still do not understand how the difference between installed capacity and actual production can distort the discussion and this is maybe why you think that EIA is in error. Most news articles state added solar and wind build out in added capacity. That chart from EIA shows actual energy production for 2015. For world solar to increase it's share by 1 unit on a world production chart, it must increase by 5 units of installed capacity. For Germany, Poland, Russia, NYstate, Canada, ect, solar capacity must increase by 7X to add 1 unit of annual production. If you wish to triple the value of electricity versus heat energy for a theoretical eventual efficiency improvement from the total electrification of all human activity we can imagine a different future than what the charts show is the actual case right now. Some people imagine nuclear fusion and space based energy. But for right now it makes no sense to refute charts that are fact regardless of how much they differ from an under informed held belief. This is another form of denialism.
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The other aspect of the discussion that you still seem unwilling to accept is that when you see that chart for 2015, that all of those data points add up to 17 TeraWatts! So adding a few hundred GigaWatts of solar and wind capacity at real world productivity factors year on year will indeed look as it does.
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The world economy is still growing exponentially. Energy use is still growing exponentially. And we are at the steep edge of the hockey stick. Solar and wind production are not being added as fast as the growth in energy that is required to keep our current economic system from collapsing. Not quite 1/3 as fast currently despite all of the intentions and market levers at a world level.
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If you are indeed a paid advisor to world leaders I implore you to broaden your understanding of the systems that we currently exist in as I have offered to help so that you can give better advice.
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We are not going to build our way out of this jam. Intentional degrowth would be much wiser than under informed false hope resulting in inevitable collapse.
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Cephalotus said:
This guy put much more effort into this IEA (=oil lobby) scam than I'm willing to to:

https://steinbuch.wordpress.com/2017/06/12/photovoltaic-growth-reality-versus-projections-of-the-international-energy-agency/

Ahh. Now I see why you are so mad. You have confused IEA (International Energy Agency) which is a made up, fake news, brown lobby group, with the chart that I posted from the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) Which I can assure you is quite reputable.
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https://www.eia.gov/
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Keep in mind when you see this chart that the exponential increase in solar and wind that you think is missing to be shown from 2000 to 2015 is swamped by the scale because they have been lumped into the heading of renewables which already included huge total production from wood and dung (traditional biomass) which is currently 3 times the total energy than from wind and solar combined even after the recent build out. And from hydro which is still twice that of wind and solar and from biofuels and waste which is again twice wind and solar.
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Swamped by the scale because 17 TW is an unfathomable amount of power we are blowing through and wind and solar produce just a combined 2.1% and continue to hover around this value. And despite all of the incentives, new build out worldwide is not quite keeping up with new energy consumption due to the economic growth imperative and cheap fracked gas.
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Now the infinite growth proponents want to liquefy natural gas and start tankering it all over the world like we have been doing with oil.
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We have so many economic plates spinning, and economist and world leaders are unable within the current system to create enough wealth to trickle down to the poorest jobs for more people, without continually adding more plates and keeping them all going so that they don't crash.
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The system must change.
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TheConversation has a, I guess clickbait article?, about how we can grow hemp to sequester co2 effectively out of the air.

https://theconversation.com/climate-explained-how-different-crops-or-trees-help-strip-carbon-dioxide-from-the-air-123590
file-20190916-8658-1obxeml.jpg


I am actually a big believer in co2 sequestration, its amazing to look at really useless looking bits of land in Australia via satellite-view and see a hilly part that was never cleared because it was too difficult or too beautiful to clear and see how many trees there is on it but right next to it it's dead dry looking land that obviously also could be covered in trees, like the land next to the You Yangs Regional Park
https://goo.gl/maps/3dLxovuQQKycBPKN9


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*ADD*
New article, Bill Gates claims it's stupid to continue subsidizing wind/solar
Why Bill Gates Thinks It’s Time to End Subsidies for Wind and Solar Power
https://fortune.com/2019/09/17/bill-gates-subsidies-wind-solar-power/

New Wind farms in Victoria annoying farmers because they make too much noise.
https://stopthesethings.com/2019/09/10/barely-legal-victorian-wind-industry-furious-as-noise-affected-neighbours-finally-get-justice/

According to this report, some lithium extraction mines use 70,000litres of FRESH-WATER per ton of extracted lithium (LCE). She specifically says this is not including non-fresh water.
Advancing Water Efficiency in Lithium Extraction
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NG3puTK4ik4


#ClimateStrike today in Melbourne.
https://www.facebook.com/7NEWSMelbourne/videos/944192262609475/?__xts__%5B0%5D=68.ARAz0bvrHEWw67V96uUF5z2L9OoZG42d8lssytRyi6TNnaq58AwdZDbzYrdEaErVoenhq5miM6iRDI9fj3q2IA1djBy07kSgI02wmDIB_B2qYJeakrg3tD3-ALRdvEQRSkYNyF-ZrHK__V-RyYmpnIUHs4JQO4hcBnjzTKT4H1VTXUnL8xB157VbcqLhDKMCY7DK0-pwkFis6_AJc1VpYeDAVqx3D7lqNZUJXQoSNM-TxV9W61NdwGdOFLI4ykfe7uLXJ000vqZFkCqIMkHvx0ySr_yokWU_eJ5hTzf1D1wcn9yGuZtU8YXoWd031Hx4L3YE00OXWndZTMBgPLhuR7UJ4R6zhA&__tn__=-R
https://www.facebook.com/9NewsMelbourne/videos/2907130525982394/?__xts__%5B0%5D=68.ARBDyEEy-m_pOMJeI_yO4_8K9qLzGRmqnsjRVJGQSLvqwQ0pgPrjz5svtqcrUl5bdw4FrAbqDXSykfUvmur8-hILTy0vtEodbjWWyXyB5WjUZuFYxsyewdLcxjchBrXNvVH7y1hcLBrIHnykVxNR0fGkDk9nhsQn6wWHmRSqSkFDPIaa56XTdtLePiyffUbCt01aS0VBaKXCu1SSbJsnY-wGkrd7OdIZth4wVh5U4mJvPce0VMJQN7rGZY_Sj0oTMuV85S-C8Ba3yBMsqK7GXv78HrUCMWkJ6eKW7y0ZZEwRUoYlyIu4H5tIFdHyMmlh1adwePIG4ar0knSnt3ECuVpHN3zdnnaDfRutmadi&__tn__=-R
While the kids were out demanding more wind-farms, South Australia was emitting around 10 times more CO2 than France or Canada, if we were comparing them as cars then it would be considered some kind of sick joke.
2019-09-20 (1).png
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sendler2112 said:
TheBeastie said:
For news about Tesla's Solar-city here

He didn't mention the 750 million that SolarCity took from the state of NY.

TheBeastie said:
This is why I like the banana video, just swap bananas with apartments. What would be really great is if someone made the same video with just apartments instead of bananas.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GqeRnxSuLFI

Now substitute workers for bananas and you will see why labor has no leverage in the current market system to demand a living wage and how wealth tends to accumulate at the top of the owners of production with the only solution being government intervention in the labor markets paid for by progressive tax rates.
Yes. Immigration, especially illegal immigration lowers peoples wages, its constantly one of the hot topics in main-stream news "why is our pay not going up".
Again the general public don't get it.
DvgzPILXQAAdkDp.jpg
 
"It is not quite true that behind every great fortune lies a great crime. Musicians and novelists, for example, can become extremely rich by giving other people pleasure. But it does appear to be universally true that in front of every great fortune lies a great crime. Immense wealth translates automatically into immense environmental impacts, regardless of the intentions of those who possess it. The very wealthy, almost as a matter of definition, are committing ecocide."
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https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/sep/19/life-earth-wealth-megarich-spending-power-environmental-damage?fbclid=IwAR0ePooLu2P5epRdxt9cWG4r5nGm3O6bKTg2q_DjkfjNcgsnw5bVjxc0ASA
 
I once saw something from UK Skynews and was shocked that it was just like Ch4 or BBC leftwing news.
Here is Australian Skynews, it's a little different.
Watch the full thing, it's less than 2 minutes..
At 1:25 he calls the climate strike kids "virtue-signalling little turds".
https://twitter.com/KeiraSavage00/status/1174651886365896705?s=20

Another Skynews Aus, this is a great Andrew Bolt video as he goes over the history of Tim Flannery and his charlatan activities on Climate-Change. Tim has made a lot of money it seems on the back of CC and he has nothing to show for it, not even a working geothermal project, just duds.
Seems like Skynews is now releasing full videos of their stuff but only on their website, they should share it on YouTube it would really help viewership.
https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6086973342001

Melbourne had one of the biggest turnup numbers in the ClimateStrike protest estimated at over 100,000
Avi Yemini a Jewish reporter always goes to just about any protest in Melbourne to cover it and let people have a say.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dCZmZZTyRqg
[youtube]dCZmZZTyRqg[/youtube]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dCZmZZTyRqg
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There seems to be news every day of a new fuel-cell truck or bus or hydrogen generator but its the FC drone news that I find fascinating.

MMC UAV Hydrogen Drone Breaks New Record for Flight Time--Its flight time reached a record-breaking 15 hours without payload & 10 hours with 3kg payload while most drones in market merely have a maximum 2-hour flight time
https://fuelcellsworks.com/news/mmc-uav-hydrogen-drone-breaks-new-record-for-flight-time/
EE63KTWXkAEXXRA


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A story about how Tesla' solar panels are causing home fires on their roofs
Solar panels catch fire on Louisville home
https://kdvr.com/2019/09/19/solar-panels-catch-fire-on-louisville-home/
 
I went with a de-growth theme but couldn't come up with a "not equal to" sign while throwing together my graphic design at the last minute. It would have been easier to have just met up with the local Sunrise Movement Ithaca group to free hand something with some of their paints last week but I am like many working Americans, time poor, and work in a different city with a long commute.
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He asked the lady about her sign stating "Capitalism is destroying the planet" but she wasn't ready to explain it. It's easy to freeze up and look bad when someone walks up out of nowhere with a mike. Like the the tall girl who seemed to have a good understanding of why she was there but didn't have her spiel down pat. A lesson to us all to have our message ready for public display.
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My new online friend from Vermont went to stand with the other 250,000 in NYC and also came up with a good, open ended and non-pushy conversation starter: "choose wisely"
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I just wore my "I <3 Pumped Hydro" shirt.

Was great so see about 10,000 in the streets of Perth. It's a pretty conservative old town, so hopefully the kids keep it up.
 
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