El Niño in the newz. Again.

Expecting some significant rain next week. One model was showing over 7" expected around Santa Barbara.
 
Expecting some significant rain next week. One model was showing over 7" expected around Santa Barbara.
Sounds like it should be good for some landslide action.
 
The computer models are not in agreement so the precipitation estimates are all over the place. But for sure I'll be getting some rain, possibly up to 3" over next week. Might be less than an inch. Either way, we could use it right now.
0.4" total for the season so far.
 
Detailed Forecast
Veterans Day
Sunny, with a high near 79. Northwest wind around 5 mph.
Tonight
Mostly clear, with a low around 44. Southeast wind around 5 mph.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 81. Calm wind becoming northeast around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 49. East wind around 10 mph.
Monday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 79. Light and variable wind becoming west 5 to 10 mph in the morning.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 50.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 78.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 49.
Wednesday
A chance of showers after 10am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 72.
Wednesday Night
Showers likely, mainly after 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52.
Thursday
Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 66.
Thursday Night
Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51.
Friday
Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 64.

First storm of the season really gets pumped up by the news. Sensationalized Storms, exaggerated headlines and clickbait by unethical journalist hucksters.
Stick to the NWS consistantly who usually don’t panic or have something to sell you, unlike Accuweather.
I’m a little irritated by the new commercials on the NWS YouTube announcements. I guess it was bound to happen.
Example:

To their credit CBS, NBC, ABC and FOX remain silent on the approaching storm.
 
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KTLA news now stated that there is a 100% chance of rain. Where are they getting this information? NWS says 70% chance. There is no atmospheric river connected to this storm, tropical moisture is far to the south and the cutoff low is clearly visible in the satellite view:
I believe that they are no longer an independent station, because “LA’s Own” recently sold to Nextar in Texas.
:p
 
Atmospheric river going into Baja California south of US border. Nearly connected to the front but pushed out of the way. From KTLA5 website:
B821951E-DF48-44B1-AE51-CBBA41ED9346.png
Fuzzy math? 70+20+10. Does not = a 100% chanca of rain. Someone goofed!
Wednesday
A chance of showers, mainly after 10am. Increasing clouds, with a high near 73. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Wednesday Night
Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Thursday
A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 66. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Thursday Night
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
70+20+10????????=100
50or70or50or50??????????=70 at most
Nowhere anywhere do the numbers add up to more than a 70% chance of rain at any one time at any particular place.
Some dope totaled the amount of the probabilities of total rainfall and the TV station ran with it! Case closed.
:ROFLMAO:Hysterical!
 
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The rain is concentrated on the (orange/yellow) backside of the low. Tropical moisture (atmospheric river) far to the south, detached from the storm by hundreds of miles.
Watch it unfold here:
 
I just read that Google has a new AI computer model that is supposed to be better and quicker than the 'European' model is.

I'm eagerly waiting for the day that every citizen is given a robot at birth, who does all the work a person is responsible for and pays their citizen the profits from it -- so don't get me wrong -- but I'm willing to bet it's impossible to actually make a corporate profit off of whatever system/software/whatever you're referring to. It may cost less money to pay someone's salary than to train an AI model effectively and in a reasonable amount of time.

But if they've got it already, sure, they can make press releases about it; software makes a pretty poor doorstop, so I dunno what else they'd do with it.
 
El Nino Rain Gage
Nothin'/Skunked-Foggy Doggy-Play Misty-Drizzle Corn-Light Showers-Steady Soaker-Bands/Sheets-Cats & Dogs
********************************************************************************:)
 
Showers in the area, nothing measurable here in Valle Vista. Even after this:
So far missing us to the south, no atmospheric river here. We are sheltered from the wind to some extent between the buttes and hills.
Things are changing as I write as major thunder and lightning occurs.
 
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El Nino Rain Gage
Nothin'/Skunked-Foggy Doggy-Play Misty-Drizzle Corn-Light Showers-Steady Soaker-Bands/Sheets-Cats & Dogs
**********************************************************************************************:)
 
About 1/4" here so far. Last night there was a lightning strike very close to the house. I didn't see the bolt, but there was like zero delay between the flash and the boom, which was extremely loud. Sounded like a big firework going off. Lightning is very rare around here.
The cutoff low is still just spinning around over the ocean but is expected to move inland by tomorrow and drop some more rain here.
 
This is a very unique looking storm covering an huge area of the Pacific.
The low staying at sea so long that it became disorganized I guess.
If it rains here it will be the second time I didn’t see it coming.
699EAA21-19A9-48BB-A83D-AA5BD876CA5A.jpeg
 
The cutoff low is still spinning around and just made landfall north of here. About 3" of rain overnight and it's still coming down but looks like it's about to end.
Good start to the rain season.
 
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