Forecast models show relatively high agreement that another storm
system will impact California from at least Tuesday through
Thursday of next week. Model data shows a robust subtropical
precipitable water plume associated with this storm system,
however, models have been undecided with the positioning of this
moisture plume. The bulk of any rainfall from next weeks system
will be concentrated wherever this moisture plume ultimately aims
at, and, for now, that has been shifting between each model output
and model run. Latest thinking is that the bulk of the
precipitation will be aimed at the Monterey Bay and southward
(particularly in an area from Big Sur to Santa Ventura county),
however, this is likely to continue to change as the model comes
into better focus. GEFS atmospheric river detection parameters are
only beginning to get a hint that this system may surpass the
500kg/m/s IVT value, which, for now, suggests this system may
still have some room to grow, especially given that the dProg/dT
(a measure of model change over time) suggests a moistening trend.