Limiting Factor for Ebike explosion?

[vanilla ice]

A lot of folk these days won't even use an efficient car, let alone a motorcycle, scooter or bicycle.. anything less than 2 tons is unsafe.

and the ice scooter buyer still gets to wrap themselves in a nice little Green jacket cause the thing gets better than 50mpg

And more power to them..

 

[evblazer]

Weather? Safety?

Those would be my two big ones. If you could make a lightweight ev that solved the range problem or recharge problem it wouldn't be "safe" enough for people. Even if you solve every single issue it still won't be what they are used to, it isn't what everyone else drives/rides and it will take a long time.

Riding an bike? c'mon bikes are the most unsafe thing in the world to many people. Riding out with a 3 ton vehicle who isn't paying attention to what they are doing, and the people know because they are the ones driving like that, is not the place you want to be. Then you have weather. Hot, cold, windy, rainy, snow, ice!? We need to live in huge climate controlled biodomes before you could eliminate that issue.
Still maybe a fair weather ebike rider is better then no ebike rider at all.. Until a stretch of more then a day or two go by and they have to take their climate controlled livingroom on wheels out and it is that much harder to go back to an ebike.

 

[auraslip]

> A lot of folk these days won't even use an efficient car, let alone a motorcycle, scooter or bicycle.. anything less than 2 tons is unsafe.

> For most people though, it's the little things that stop them. Little cement trucks, humvees, 4 cab pickups, that try to kill em daily if they ride a bike.

I understand why people think these things. To them a big truck seems more lethal than a honda accord, but the fact is that on a bike getting hit by a truck and getting hit by a honda are almost equally lethal. And in an automobile driving a two ton pickup isn't going to protect you from a semi-truck or another two ton pickup. Hell the fact is that a smaller car is statistically safer because it handles better and is less likely to roll. But the fact remains that the SUV market is sort of a cold war of ever growing size and weight.

This is part of the reason why I think people are scornful of cyclist. When I'm crossing the intersection, they have to wait on me. It's the law of the land, but still the resent waiting an extra 3 seconds for me. If I was a giant truck, they would not resent it. This is because they know the law of physics. The giant truck will kill them if they go in front of it. It's sort of a unstated game of fear and aggression that drives people to buy bigger and bigger vehicles. So I understand why people are hesitant to ride a bike. When it comes down to it, we are just animals. We resent the constraints of a societies rules. We know that the guy in the pickup truck will play by the rules and wait for us to cross the intersection, but deep down in our primal brains we know that he could kill us dead if he wanted to.

I assuage myself by knowing that I could break his window with my u-lock and pull him out to beat him ragged if he so much as tried anything silly, but I digress. In a country where anything less than two tons feels unsafe riding a bicycle is radical.

Also the batteries. People think of batteries as the gasoline they put in the car, or the batteries in their flashlights. Even as the price of lithium and hub kits come down the batteries will stay twice the price. It requires a new mindset.

 

[The Stig]

Weather? Safety?

Those would be my two big ones. If you could make a lightweight ev that solved the range problem or recharge problem it wouldn't be "safe" enough for people. Even if you solve every single issue it still won't be what they are used to and it will take a long time.

Riding an bike? c'mon bikes are the most unsafe thing in the world to many people. Riding out with a 3 ton vehicle who isn't paying attention to what they are doing, and the people know because they are the ones driving like that, is not the place you want to be. Then you have weather. Hot, cold, windy, rainy, snow, ice!? We need to live in huge climate controlled biodomes before you could eliminate that issue.
Still maybe a fair weather ebike rider is better then no ebike rider at all.. Until a stretch of more then a day or two go by and they have to take their climate controlled livingroom on wheels out and it is that much harder to go back to an ebike.

Sounds like you don't have a very thorough grasp of bike safety. I'm not saying they're safer than cars but they're a lot safer than most peoples' perceptions allow them to believe.

The big ones are battery cost and "culture".

The culture affects the perception of bike safety, the topic is pretty much ignored, and that weather is an absolute no no. When it comes to snow, I have no problem with my big Jacket(I'm a snowboarder afterall), and maybe my sunglasses. You need a mountain bike though and probably studded tires. Studded tires and no speeding are the two main things in the winter. Light rain really is no biggy, with a hood or glasses to keep it out of your eyes. Heavy rain is the only thing that I really don't like, but still doable with the right gear. What some europeans do is to just go fairly slow with an umbrella. The sidewalk is empty when its raining heavily anyway which is an easy place to ride one handed. I'd probably just throw my folding ebike in a cab or take it on the subway in heavy rain depending on which is faster.

Some places could be made a lot safer with bike lanes and such infastructure. There could be laws that all bikes must have lights at night like in bike cities in europe. Kids shouldnt ride alone or they could be discouraged from it with a youngsters helmet law... one of the most important things is riding carefully and watching out for yourself. Most bike accidents happen when cars pull out infront of bikes or getting doored, a lot of times the biker will swerve out into traffic and get hit or the better option is to hit the obstacle... thats why a front light is far more important than a rear light, I know top bike safety sites will agree with me on that. Drivers really don't want to hit you but they dont care about avoiding you if they cant see you.

As for cost I don't see many ebike retailers offering financing to ease the pain caused by battery cost, but I wouldn't know much about that sort of thing.

I also agree that people have sort of a self centered primitive attraction to larger vehicles. They're just compensating.

 

[evblazer]

they're a lot safer than most peoples' perceptions allow them to believe.[/b]

When I say most unsafe thing to many people that doesn't mean me it means many people like those who aren't riding their bikes whether the safety issue is real or not.
Before my doctors took me out of riding I constantly would get comments about how it is unsafe to ride, how i'll get killed out there from innatentive drivers how unsafe it is to ride at night becuase of the criminals or some kids intentionally running me down. A car really does provide you protection from idiots and most people have experiences like that. Yes there are many who survive bike/car incidents but usually they have to heal up a car can be more easily repaired or replaced.
Sometimes it makes no sense for me to ride. My father is a great driver but got hit while stopped at a 3 way intersection while someone ran the stop sign and turned right into him instead of going straight or making the turn. If he was on a bike on the road, in a bike lane or even on a sidewalk next to the road he'd be dead. My mother hit a bad patch and bounced off the sides of a bridge a couple times while the car slid. The thing was totalled but she was fine. I saw someone hit a bad patch on their bike and they have a buncha screws in their hip from bouncing around and shattering it and alot of bumps and bruises to heal. My sister can't drive worth crap and then is on the phone or taking care of her kids in the back seat. My friend who twice drove me to lunch drives like a maniac and I have no idea how he is alive with all the risks he takes.

So to me I see safety as a big issue. Weather or anything making it less convinient for them is another and then of course what people think of them is probably going to be the final barrier that needs to fall at least around where I live. Driving means you are an adult and have freedom driving a nice car means you made it, or are driving yourself into debt to make people think you did, it is a big cultural thing. Not many people around here stay on bikes and even when I was growing up not many kids even were on bikes most all of them were chauffered around by parents.

 

[auraslip]

how unsafe it is to ride at night because of the criminals or some kids intentionally running me down.

A clock work orange?

 

[evblazer]

how unsafe it is to ride at night because of the criminals or some kids intentionally running me down.

A clock work orange?

Could be haven't watched that movie in a while. Perhaps they are reading those news reports from the riders on the katey or trinity trail that get mugged *shrug*. Usually doesn't happen on the road unless you stop and there is a group of trouble makers bored and looking for something to do. Most of the time just rocks or throwing slushies or something but someone reported getting a lit cigar pushed into their face on bentrideronline yesterday.

 

[katou]

If battery cost is the big limiter for you all, what would you do if you got batteries really, really cheap?

Would you immediately build a bigger pack? Upgrade your motor for massive acceleration? Would you build an electric car instead? Would you start building ebikes for the poor?

Let's hear some crazy ideas!

Katou

 

[auraslip]

someone reported getting a lit cigar pushed into their face on bentrideronline yesterday.

I was thinking of getting rid of my u-lock, but now I think I'll keep it.

 

[crichman]

Temporarily, the economy.

But longer-term, the bigger issues are marketing and perception -- among potential ebikers, and among bike shops.

I've been soldering electrical bits for 40 years, so I think I can say this: The future of ebikes doesn't belong to folks who can solder. It belongs to the broader market of people who buy their wheels for transportation, for fun, or for image. Long may ES prosper and may the hobby community push the bounds of the possible, but that's not where bulk sales will come from.

In Holland more than a quarter of bikes sold are ebikes now. Infrastructure is certainly a big reason, but so is the realization on the part of the bicycle selling community that they can move ebikes and make more cash from them than regular bikes. (Besides costing more, ebikes generate more demand for tires, chains, replacement batteries, etc.) Over half the revenue coming in to bicycle shops in Holland comes from ebikes. Once North American retailers figure this out, they'll start pushing ebikes as they previously pushed disc brakes for the masses and carbon-fiber everything.

Mass-market bicycle manufacturers are clearly ready to jump in. Have you tried an electric Trek lately? They're expensive and equipped with Bionx systems... and they work beautifully. Please don't tell me you can build something more powerful for less -- of course you can. But it is an example of a smoothly-integrated pre-packaged system that just works, and has a Brand Name behind it. They'll sell, especially as the economy recovers.

I love tweaking systems (I've reconfigured my own Bionx system to better suit me and my recumbent bike, and added a DC-DC converter to support my lights) but I know I'm not the mass-market customer. I'm also a bike commuter (15 miles each way) and that doesn't make me the mass-market customer either. Increasing numbers of ebike purchasers are commuting and displacing their cars, but most still have other reasons. Maybe they're not strong cyclists, or cyclists at all. Maybe they're aging and their baby boomer knees need some help. Or maybe they're thinking green or just think it's cool.

The forthcoming issue of Momentum magazine will talk a bit about broader ebike culture. (I know - I wrote the article.)

Or you could have a look at my own site, where I hope to reach beyond the hobby community to address the needs of the broader electric cycling community.

Charlie
http://ElectricCyclist.com

 

[John in CR]

If battery cost is the big limiter for you all, what would you do if you got batteries really, really cheap?

Would you immediately build a bigger pack? Upgrade your motor for massive acceleration? Would you build an electric car instead? Would you start building ebikes for the poor?

All of the above, though I'd sell cheap but good ebikes to the poor.

 

[spinningmagnets]

"...Please don't tell me you can build something more powerful for less -- of course you can. But it is an example of a smoothly-integrated pre-packaged system that just works, and has a Brand Name behind it..."

I agree. The local bike shop sells and warrantees the Giant Twist. It only has a 250W motor, and although it does have a lithium battery, the bike is $2,000...they've sold 4 of them to college students who don't solder and don't want to learn how to solder (or what to solder).

Its a beautiful bike, and well-integrated. Pretty much like a new appliance (washer, refrigerator, microwave...) you plug it in and it works...no tweaking needed.

I may end up putting together some kit bikes that provide better performance for a significantly lower price, but I will not warrantee anything...and the battery will probably be a NiCD simply because so many potential customers are so price-sensitive on the initial purchase. You can show them the figures on how a good quality lithium pack will last much longer for a slightly higher price, but they still want the absoolute lowest purchase price.

Last I heard WalMart was doing OK using that customer philosophy...

 

[ElliottE]

"The fact that most commercial units look like ass?"

I'll second that, and raise with "and they can't climb hills worth crap."

 

[neptronix]

how unsafe it is to ride at night because of the criminals or some kids intentionally running me down.

A clock work orange?

Could be haven't watched that movie in a while. Perhaps they are reading those news reports from the riders on the katey or trinity trail that get mugged *shrug*. Usually doesn't happen on the road unless you stop and there is a group of trouble makers bored and looking for something to do. Most of the time just rocks or throwing slushies or something but someone reported getting a lit cigar pushed into their face on bentrideronline yesterday.

Well stop screwing around then, guys.

I like my daily driver ( the MAC bike ) to be able to go fast enough to get out of harm's way. That speed is roughly 30mph. I feel much safer on an eBike than a pedal bike for reasons you mention.

The problem with the USA is that the cycle paths are often barely used. When there are only a few riders on it every hour, and it's tucked away from the road, you are a major target to any douchebag who wants to cause trouble. I think that as cycling gradually becomes more popular, these paths will become more safe because if some d bag wants to screw with a cyclist, they get to feel the wrath of many cyclists simultaneously.