China switches to e-bikes

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http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China_Business/LE07Cb01.html
Asia Times Online
May 7, 2010
By Peter J Brown
An estimated 120 million domestically produced e-bikes are in use on the country's roads today, and somewhere between 700,000 and 800,000 e-bikes operate in Beijing alone. No other nation comes close to this total - an estimated 200,000 e-bikes are being used across the entire United States

E-bike sales are surging - up 8.2% last year to 23.69 million units - as traditional pedal-powered bike production in China declines, tumbling 13.2% last year to 76.06 million bicycles, according to Ma Zhongchao, head of the China Bicycle Association (CBA).

Exports of Chinese-made pedal-driven bikes fell 18.2% in 2009 to 46.12 million - reflecting in part falling demand due to the global financial crisis. Foreign sales jumped in January this year by 21.4% from a year earlier, to 4.08 million bicycles. China's e-bike exports also declined in 2009, down 33% to 370,000 units, CBA figures show.

E-bikes, which combine pedal power with battery-based propulsion, make up the majority of the market for electric two-wheeled vehicles (E2WVs). More than 466 million E2WVs will be sold worldwide from 2010 to 2016 and 57% will be e-bikes, according to Dave Hurst, a senior analyst at Colorado-based Pike Research, and the lead author of a 2010 report on the sector.

More than 95% of the world's e-bikes forecast to be sold over the next six years will be bought in China, Hurst says.

No single brand dominates the e-bike market in China, according to Hurst, who singles out Jiangsu Xinri E-Vehicle, Luyuan Electric Vehicle and Changzhou Hongdu Electric Bicycle Co as some of the largest producers in a fractured market with "well over 3,000 manufacturers garnering only a few percentage points of market share". They are chasing revenues that could be as high as US$7.6 billion this year from the sale of 25.3 million units, says Hurst.

Major well-known bicycle brands outside China, including US-based SRAM and Trek along with Taiwan's Giant Manufacturing, have recently introduced e-bikes or e-bike components, while in India, Hero Electric has helped to launch an e-bike sector, with sales in the country expected to more than double this year from 100,000 in 2009.

Companies such as SRAM, Trek and Giant "are already starting to drive new innovation and marketing efforts for e-bikes. Outside of traditional bicycle companies, Sanyo Electric and Honda are also jumping into the market, and it is expected that Yamaha may follow," says Hurst.

While many e-bikers move up from pedal-powered machines, the rising cost of fuel for standard motorbikes and scooters also encourages a switch to electric. Some bikers "may leave gas-powered motorcycles for e-bikes due to cost because electricity is cheaper than gas," said Hurst.

One innovation for e-bikes is how to recharge batteries. Sanyo Electric in Japan, for example, recently opened three solar-powered charging stations in Tokyo for its "eneloop" bikes, which can recharge dozens of e-bikes simultaneously. The company has also erected a so-called "Solar Parking Lot" for e-bikes on a trial basis at a government office in Tokushima prefecture.

Sanyo's "eneloop" e-bike, introduced in 2008, is described by the company as a "regenerative, pedal-assist hybrid electric bicycle" which can travel "40 miles [64 kilometers] per charge in full Auto pedal assist mode." The product became available in the United States in late 2009 with a suggested retail price starting at US$2,299, whereas e-bikes in China sell for an estimated 1,700 yuan (US$250) to 3,000 yuan.

Such innovations encourage the idea that e-bikes are by their nature environmentally friendly, but their use of batteries and the problem of battery disposal raises concerns - particularly in China, where lead batteries are widely used for e-bikes and up to five such batteries might be needed to power a single e-bike over its lifetime.

The electric car market has triggered an increase in production of lithium ion batteries, making them less expensive and more viable for use in e-bikes.

"In China, the e-bike market is highly price sensitive, so any change to pricing in either direction will likely have a noticeable impact on the marketplace," says Hurst. "Developments in batteries for the [electric automobile] market will also trickle down into the e-bike business as the technology becomes more affordable. Battery makers are constantly working to improve the power-weight ratio with technology like prismatic cells, which are lighter and smaller."

The increasing popularity of e-bikes in China, where they are largely unregulated, and an increasing number of road accidents associated with them, is attracting the attention of the central and local governments. A recently proposed law would have made many e-bikes at present in use illegal without a license.

"However, concern with a backlash from employers who rely on employees getting to work via e-bikes caused the government to put those rules on hold," says Hurst. "Additionally, many Chinese cities, including Shanghai in 2007, have banned gas-powered motorcycles and scooters, which has led to huge sales boosts [of e-bikes]."

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This is always the way... "...an increasing number of road accidents..." and regulators that fail to accept that injuries and deaths mostly come from the bike riders being slammed by large, heavy and high-speed vehicles usually piloted by amateurs (especially in China these daze)... yet the bikers are blamed, where they are a danger mostly only to themselves.
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