Longterm lithium prices in $/Wh

[will_newton]

And watch.... The 'cartel' leader will end up being the "friend of drug traffickers" - Evo Morales - president of the country (Bolivia) that holds 50% of the worlds lithium reserves.

.

for some of us lipo is a drug, so he should be up for the task.

 

[Lock]

A bit of empirical evidence maybe... a new report from here:
http://motoring.asiaone.com/Motoring/News/Story/A1Story20100222-200277.html

"Electric bikes on a roll in China"
some snips:
""This is the future - it's practical, it's clean and it's economical," said manufacturer Shi Zhongdong, whose company also exports electric bikes to Asia and Europe."

and
"More than 1,000 companies are already in the e-bike business in China, with many of them clustered in the eastern coastal provinces such as Jiangsu and Zhejiang, which both border Shanghai. Another 1,000 firms are producing e-bikes on an ad hoc basis, Shi told AFP during a visit to his Hanma Electric Bicycles factory in the port city of Tianjin, about 120 kilometres (75 miles) north of Beijing."

and
"He is wary of giving exact production figures, but says Hanma is churning out between 50,000 and 100,000 e-bikes a year."

and
"In his company's icy, old-fashioned workshops, several models are lined up: from electric bikes with "green" lithium batteries, made especially for export, to some that look more like mini-scooters."

and
""There is a big future for electric bikes in Europe, where people are very concerned about saving the environment," he said, explaining that the models with safer but more costly lithium batteries are shipped to EU nations."

and
"Shi says he sells the export models for 400 dollars, as opposed to just 240 dollars for those sold in China. But the bikes can sell for a whopping 1,200 dollars in France and Germany."


...so the implication might be that this manufacturer is adding $160 to his selling price for each vehicle as the difference for his cost plus profit between lead and lithium packs based on volume of 50,000-100,000 packs a year. Ebikes sold to the EU I expect have generally smaller Wh packs than many on ES are playing with because of the EU pedal-assist only and wattage restrictions.
tks
Lock

 

[rolf_w]

It appears that lithium reserves are at 12 million tons. It appears a LiFePO4 battery is like 1-3% lithium by weight. ...

Lithium is amazing - a gift from the big bang! On this planet Lithium is more abundant than Copper. By far the largest reserve is in the sea water (>200 billion tonnes) and technologies are under development to 'mine' this vast stock (http://www.ioes.saga-u.ac.jp/ioes-study/li/recovery/seawater.html or http://www.ioes.saga-u.ac.jp/ioes-study/li/publication/ourpub.html or http://www.korea.net/news/news/newsView.asp?serial_no=20100209004).
It's interesting that both, supercaps and (Li) batteries, 'contain' double-layer capacitors (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_double-layer_capacitor) and that work is in progress to better merge the two storage mechanisms into one device.
There is still much room for improvement for the Li electro-chemistry (both energy carriers, petrol and Li, have about the same energy capacity). As said only 1-3% of the weight of current battery designs is Li - the rest does not add to capacity (it's mostly Cu and Al). Better designs will help to improve energy densities such as bipolar cells and/or avoid one electrode (> Li-air).
rw

 

[nomad85]

I think your special to Morph...in a rides the special bus kind of way
KiM

Come on guys, no point in poking fun, though you really should watch what you type morph, its okay to be wrong, its the best way to learn, but antagonizing someone clearly more astute than oneself rarely ends well :wink:

 

[Lock]

John Gartner, senior analyst with Pike Research's clean transportation practice, talks about the coming lithium-ion battery glut.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=124012917

"SIEGEL: So 2012 is our appointment with reality for lithium-ion batteries, you're saying.
Mr. GARTNER: Yes, it could be a real critical year especially for some of these start-up companies that are entering this field. If there is a glut in that year, prices might drop much quicker than people are anticipating. And that could make it real difficult for them to turn a profit with their battery production."

tks
Ll0k

 

[docnjoj]

That is what John in CR is hoping for.
otherDoc

 

[Rifle]

I read an article that put my biggest concern for the sustainability EV movement with the motors. Apparently tiny quantities of dysprosium can make magnets in electric motors lighter by 90 percent, so I assume our motors have that in them. And the sustainability of mining that seems questionable: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/26/business/global/26rare.html

 

[monster]

i wouldn't worry there are loads of good battery technologies out there for vehicles. molten sodium sulfur batteries are used in large EV's and they are good. i thing the next great energy saving transport technology will be streamline-ification. once streamline shaped vehicles become the norm things start to look a lot rosier for sustainable transport.

 

[Lock]

...my biggest concern for the sustainability EV movement with the motors.

Old school maybe, but there are motor designs that have no permanent magnets in `em at all. In fact for larger EVs the sepex design can be preferred as easier to implement regen and control wheelslip...
tks
Lock

 

[monster]

the price of lithium cells has been stable at around 0.82$/wh (inc. P&P) for at least a year now. i dont see it changing anytime soon.

 

[mace1934]

In coming years the limited amount of easily mined lithium may become a deterrent to EV development, if lithium batteries remain crucial. Though there is a vast reservoir in seawater, they say extracting lithium from the seas is prohibitively expensive. A better alternative may be geothermal sources, according to this article:

http://earth2tech.com/2010/03/10/will-seawater-stave-off-a-lithium-squeeze/#more-52945

 

[swbluto]

In coming years the limited amount of easily mined lithium may become a deterrent to EV development, if lithium batteries remain crucial. Though there is a vast reservoir in seawater, they say extracting lithium from the seas is prohibitively expensive. A better alternative may be geothermal sources, according to this article:

http://earth2tech.com/2010/03/10/will-seawater-stave-off-a-lithium-squeeze/#more-52945

Maybe people will realize that electric cars aren't the "answer", and that the answer lies within bikes or mini-cars. :lol: (Just joking. People will deplete anything that's affordable to sustain convenience-based lifestyles until the depleting supply becomes too expensive.)

 

[nagromo]

I read an article that put my biggest concern for the sustainability EV movement with the motors. Apparently tiny quantities of dysprosium can make magnets in electric motors lighter by 90 percent, so I assume our motors have that in them. And the sustainability of mining that seems questionable: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/26/business/global/26rare.html

Both the Tesla Roadster and GM EV-1 use(d) AC induction motors, which don't need any magnets. I think that for large motors, most companies will decide that magnets are too expensive and the more complex software required to properly control an AC induction motor is worthwhile.

Besides, although brushless DC is slightly more efficient at peak power, a good AC induction motor is more efficient at light load, especially light load high RPM, because of reduced magnetic losses.

 

[liveforphysics]

the price of lithium cells has been stable at around 0.82$/wh (inc. P&P) for at least a year now. i dont see it changing anytime soon.

Or it's $37 per 5Ah 5S LiPo pack from HobbyCity... With shipping to your door, it was just ducking $0.50/wh, and that's for lightweight 20C rated stuff. Just a year ago it was very tough to duck $1/wh shipped to your door for 20C rated LiPo.

I would say having the price cut in half over a year is a pretty good rate of price drop.

 

[John in CR]

the price of lithium cells has been stable at around 0.82$/wh (inc. P&P) for at least a year now. i dont see it changing anytime soon.

Or it's $37 per 5Ah 5S LiPo pack from HobbyCity... With shipping to your door, it was just ducking $0.50/wh, and that's for lightweight 20C rated stuff. Just a year ago it was very tough to duck $1/wh shipped to your door for 20C rated LiPo.

I would say having the price cut in half over a year is a pretty good rate of price drop.

The low power large format stuff like Thundersky LiFePo4 has come down quite a bit too. As I understand there's nothing really expensive in lithium batteries, so it's just a matter of ramping up production for us to enjoy the economies of scale and lower prices. A glut in the lithium battery market sure would be nice. The new A123 cells for $123/kwh has a really nice ring to it. Yeah I know, just a wet dream, but a guy can dream a bit can't he?

 

[Harold in CR]

Thought I read recently that the newer chemistries of Lithium with Ytrium (SP) makes for much less lithium needed per cell. I will try to find that article. It is supposed to be VERY plentiful AND cheap. ???

Edit: Still searching, but DID find mention of Aleese Powder and Yttrium, in the LiFeYPo4 battery searches. Maybe someone knows more about this chemistry ???

 

[AussieJester]

Lipos are actually cheaper for me to buy overseas than SLA 12v 20ah batteries are to buy locally!


KiM

 

[swbluto]

Thought I read recently that the newer chemistries of Lithium with Ytrium (SP) makes for much less lithium needed per cell. I will try to find that article. It is supposed to be VERY plentiful AND cheap. ???

Searching google news results in no relevant results. I'm going to guess that "Ytrium"-based lifepo4 is probably hype (Its supposed superior characteristics.).

Edit: http://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...serid=10&md5=3abaae0bf21c24ad4a11b39f44c56f59 It appears that yttrium doping can improve cycle life and "initial discharge capacity".

 

[Lock]

Thought I read recently that the newer chemistries of Lithium with Ytrium (SP) makes for much less lithium needed per cell.

Does this help? (Dunno how to read it myself!):

BTW, most references I see about Yttrium refer to "doping" the crystals with the stuff, so I've thought this would mean adding relatively small quantities of Y.
tks
Lock

 

[Harold in CR]

IF I can find that article, it gives pretty much what is used in a cell of a given size.

My search skills leave a LOT to be desired.