MitchJi
10 MW
https://drive.google.com/file/d/11ev0J_2hMr5PfFeZbbtolOmcEmaeyW5I/view?usp=drivesdk
My pdf speculation about Tesla’s upcoming battery day
- Thread starter MitchJi
- Start date
Hillhater
100 TW
Everyone can have their vision and speculation for what might be,
But i believe in at least some realistic considerations.
Making EVs at a lower cost than ICEs will require nore than a 20% reduction in battery cost.
The main difference between them is the motor and the battery.
An ICE motor (engine & transmission) is a relatively low cost item due to the years of refined,
efficient,mass production experience and equipment. The real cost for a typical 100kW unit is likely less than $1-2k
.....or not much more (if any), than an equivalent EV drive unit.
But the Battery ?.. well that is a totally “additional” cost. And even if by some magic , Tesla can get the pack cost down to $50 kWh , that will still mean an “extra”. $3k on cost for a (60 kWh) EV above the ICE.
In order to reduce cell cost Tesla will have to do much more than just make more volume, they will have to dramatically lower material costs .. AND, massively improve production rates/efficiency...which they have so far failed to do in the GF, which has yet to meet its original 35GWh /year planned production target, ....let alone the now projected 200GWh .!
So producing 2-0TWh per year is simply unrealistic without some unimaginable changes.
But i believe in at least some realistic considerations.
Making EVs at a lower cost than ICEs will require nore than a 20% reduction in battery cost.
The main difference between them is the motor and the battery.
An ICE motor (engine & transmission) is a relatively low cost item due to the years of refined,
efficient,mass production experience and equipment. The real cost for a typical 100kW unit is likely less than $1-2k
.....or not much more (if any), than an equivalent EV drive unit.
But the Battery ?.. well that is a totally “additional” cost. And even if by some magic , Tesla can get the pack cost down to $50 kWh , that will still mean an “extra”. $3k on cost for a (60 kWh) EV above the ICE.
In order to reduce cell cost Tesla will have to do much more than just make more volume, they will have to dramatically lower material costs .. AND, massively improve production rates/efficiency...which they have so far failed to do in the GF, which has yet to meet its original 35GWh /year planned production target, ....let alone the now projected 200GWh .!
So producing 2-0TWh per year is simply unrealistic without some unimaginable changes.
MitchJi
10 MW
Hillhater said:
Tesla is now producing about 50gwh.
Unimaginable to you! On the ER Call Elon said that battery day will be the most exciting day in Tesla’s history.
I decided not to waste my time going through everything that you said. Just the most obvious mistakes.
Hillhater
100 TW
Source to confirm ?MitchJi said:
