gas price thread

[recumpence]

...
As with silver, the price of oil WILL go down. The question is, when will that happen, how far will it drop, and how high will it go before it falls.

Matt

Sorry, Matt, I think you are wrong about that. Silver is not "burnt"/consumed, gas/petrol is. That's the difference. Peak oil means that supply is exceeded by demand. The price will go down if there is a recession, but only to the extent that there is a recession. Once demand picks up, the price will go up. So, good times = higher and higher fuel prices. Unless, we force down demand by vastly expanding ebike usage to the point where demand falls! Then good times will lead to lower fuel prices (conservation?).

If a recession drops prices, why are our prices going up? We are in a recession. From that perspective, we should be seeing a price drop.

Matt

 

[Lessss]

Hysteria drives up prices.
Price fixing drives up prices.

 

[recumpence]

Hysteria drives up prices.
Price fixing drives up prices.

There is truth to that statement!

However, hysteria buying is not done by gas users. Who says "I am nervous, I think I will go fill up every gas can I own." ? Comodities brokers buy from hysteria.

Matt

 

[paultrafalgar]

I never realised "peak oil" was such a hoax !!
So all the media is colluding in this lie
Never heard this ANYWHERE before

 

[recumpence]

When has the media been right about anything major?

Society prefers to gravitate toward the sensational, not the mundane. Remember "Y2K"? I saw some real "Doom-and-Gloom" people buying tons of food. They all had shelves full of books on how the world was coming to an end. It all came to nothing. Also, the Global Warming issue is another incorrect leaning of the media. The average global temperature fluctuates every few years and self corrects. In the 70s was were all in for another ice age, now it is Global Warming. These are all issues used to peak people's interest and pass legislation that has other things attached to it. Remember the "Hole in the ozone layer"? That all came to nothing. I went through refrigerant NARDA training in the middle of that. Even their own data showed it was all an overreaction to what amounted to nothing after all that hype.

These past issues do not prove my point about gas prices. However, it demonstrates that teh main stream media cannot be relied upon to report what is in our best interest. They report what makes people tune in, period.

I would encourage everyone to watch the comodities market. Watch the oil trading. Much more is being bought than sold. However, that cannot continue forever. At some point, that oil needs to be delivered to the "Buyer". A climbing position like this cannot last forever.

I go back to my past comment, it will go down. The question is when, how far, and how high will it go before it drops?

Matt

 

[Mark_A_W]

I guess you're not from the southern hemisphere then...

The hole in the ozone layer is still there, over us down here. Things are improving due to the changes enforced on industry, but it's still there.

And from what I've read lately, from fairly reputable sources, global warming is proceeding at a rate faster than the most dire predictions. (It doesn't rain here anymore....a taste of the future for my region).

Don't you have non-commercial media? Public television, with reputable reporting?

 

[TylerDurden]

It will be hard to say when oil will drop, considering the rate of increase in demand from China, India and others.

The US has one public network, becoming less funded and less relevant. Media continues to fractionalize, with millions of small channels catering to niche segments. Most of those small channels come at a price, while "free" (ad-funded) TV becomes more sensational and less substantive.

One glimmer of hope is the public library system: more and more citizens are accessing the internet for information outside the realm of corporate media outlets.

 

[oatnet]

It will be hard to say when oil will drop, considering the rate of increase in demand from China, India and others.

I agree TD - global demand is driving price increases, and it goes nowhere but up. Concrete is getting more expensive for the same reasons, but people don't burn it to get to work, so less attention on it now. When a home foundation starts costing 10x, people might notice.

Today, USA-style consumers are the extreme (and lucky) minority of the worlds population - with the development of the third world, we are adding consumers to compete with the goods we have become used to monopolizing and squandering.

If 10% of the world's population own a car today, what will happen to the price of oil when the next 10% of gets one too, doubling demand? Even then, gasoline consumers will be an extreme minority of the world's population.

-JD

 

[Jay64]

I always understood it to be a factor of supply and demand. There is a set demand, actually it is increasing. If you limit the supply, the price goes up. That is what happened in the 70s and that is what is happening now. Back in the 60s the arabs were selling as much as they could pump to try and get as much money as possible. And then they sent one of their sons from one of the royal family (can't remember exactly who, sorry, failing memory, too many head injuries) to a western university where he learned about supply and demand. He went home and told his dad to stop pumping so much out and to start charing more. Their profits soared. If you don't think they are making huge profits, go check out their ski slope they have in the middle of the desert.

 

[safe]

Some of the smaller arab countries have already run out of oil. It's sort of a secret how much oil is really left in Saudi Arabia... the Saudi's need to get as much money for it as possible before they run out and will have no future revenue.

Imagine the day when the Saudi's have no income anymore.

(by then we will be on EV's and no longer need them)

One of the arab countries is trying to create a big recreational center so that people will come and visit. They are trying to be like the Disneyland of the middle east. (that's probably the ski area you are talking about) I'm pretty sure that's Dubai... which has very little oil of it's own...

"Although Dubai's economy was built on the back of the oil industry, revenues from oil and natural gas currently account for less than 6% of the emirate's revenues."

 

[mcstar]

demonstrates that teh main stream media cannot be relied upon to report what is in our best interest. They report what makes people tune in, period.

I can vouch for that statement. My last job was for a major media/entertainment company. The stories that get attention were/are chosen by how well they fit a model that predicts the veiwership that will be drawn to the story. Sure there are niches, and biases but the fact is, they all get their news from the same wire. What exactly they choose to share, and the angle the take on the story is the only thing that's variable from one network to the other. None of the major news networks do their own research (that's a blanket statement and not 100% correct, I know, but by-and-large the stories on TV all come from the wire). Smaller stations may still have reporters on the street, but "the news" is the news, you don't get "the news" from TV, newspapers or radio. From those media sources you get "the show", "the commentary", "the sales pitch". From public TV you get the you get "the indoctorination". You can still get "the news" from the internet, but most people have a hard time interpretting it.

 

[TylerDurden]

From public TV you get the you get "the indoctorination".

You get spelling lessons too; like this, D O U C H E B A G...
:lol:

 

[mcstar]

Thanks for the sp check TD. Sorry, I don't have any choice words to share with you today. You must have had a tough ride home today eh? Perhaps your battery cutout on the way home? You should try it in 100F dry Texas heat.
I've been there, not complaining though, struggles have a way of making the strong tougher. It's only by the grace of God, I'm not throwing sandbags trying to save my home or farm from flooding this week. I know that feeling when you see disaster coming and you cannot do a thing about it. My hat's off to you guys in Iowa and Indiana this week. If you guys up North need anything, just ask, and I mean it! My wife and I have decided to drive up during the week of July 4th to lend a hand.

 

[TylerDurden]

Thanks for the sp check TD. Sorry, I don't have any choice words to share with you today. You must have had a tough ride home today eh? Perhaps your battery cutout on the way home? You should try it in 100F dry Texas heat.

Had a good day today... my new centrifuge arrived. Cleans WVO @ 55gph.

Eat more fried-food homeboy, I can use the fuel.

 

[recumpence]

So, has anyone calculated their "Gas Mileage" (for their e-bike)?

I average (at 20 to 25 mph) 2,191 miles on $4.20 of electricity. So, at $4.20 per gallon, I get the equivilent of 2,191 miles per gallon! That is awesome!

Even if you calculate battery wear per ride, it is still cheap. My battery is good for roughly 500 to 1000 charges minimum before performance drops off (probably more, but those are pessemistic numbers). My pack cost me $435. At a minimum of 500 recharges after 20 miles of riding, I come up with $.23 per 20 mile ride. That calculates to a tiny bit over $.01 per mile. So, that same $4.20 for 2,191 mile of riding (electricity cost), if the battery cost is factored in, I am still seeing $26.11 for 2,191 miles of riding. That calculates to a mileage of over 352 miles per gallon with battery replacement figured in. Now, how many of us calculate our car's wear and tear and replacement parts into our mileage?

I love the fact that I can have fun with my hobby and get close to 2,200 miles per gallon in the process.

Matt

 

[mcstar]

Ain't it great recumpence? I've calcuated mine to be comparable to about 800mpg. It sounds like that laid back posture is saving you big time brother! After I figured that out my comparable mpg, I created a spreadsheet to compare fuel cost for differnt mpg's to my bike's cost with different batteries (using their current prices and expected recharge cycles).

One thing I found very interesting was that the cost of even the very best LIFEPO4 batteries is nothing compared to the cost of fuel (even at 30mpg). For instance 48V LIFEBATTS will cost you around $1300 to go 21,000 miles, but thats $36,750 in fuel cost at 20mpg and $3.5/gal. At $4/gal it's $42,000. I'm assuming an electricity cost of $.08/KW and a 60% efficient recharge. Also, the long term cost of LIFEPO4 is a fraction of Lead Acid or NiMH costs. This was mainly due to the fact that LIFEPO4 has such a high cycle life. You'll have to replace SLA batteries at least 10 times to match the LIFEPO4 life.

 

[TylerDurden]

One thing I found very interesting was that the cost of even the very best LIFEPO4 batteries is nothing compared to the cost of fuel (even at 30mpg). For instance 48V LIFEBATTS will cost you around $1300 to go 21,000 miles, but thats $36,750 in fuel cost at 20mpg and $3.5/gal. At $4/gal it's $42,000. I'm assuming an electricity cost of $.08/KW and a 60% efficient recharge. Also, the long term cost of LIFEPO4 is a fraction of Lead Acid or NiMH costs. This was mainly due to the fact that LIFEPO4 has such a high cycle life. You'll have to replace SLA batteries at least 10 times to match the LIFEPO4 life.

Bang-on. Any cheap bastard (like myself) should love LFP/LiMn.

FWIW, at least one member here posts his/her current savings in their sig-file.

 

[docnjoj]

Hey Mcstar! Could U recheck ur math for me? I must be missing something, but 21000 miles at 20 miles per gallon is 1050 gallons at 4 bucks a gallon is only 4200 dollars???????? What am I missing?????
otherDoc

 

[OneEye]

Simple decimal point error. He's actually talking about the $40/gal gas it will be next year

 

[mcstar]

docnjoj, you're correct, there is an error in what I typed. It seems I made a typo when I typed the total miles.
The calcluations should look like this:
Miles per charge (ebike) : 20 - 30
Total Number of Recharges (LIFEPO4 lifebatt) : 5000 - 7000
Total Miles travelled (one set of batteries) : 100,000 - 210,000 <- this is where the typo was
Cost for 20MPG (gasoline at $4.0) : $22,000 - $42,000
Cost for batteries + charger + bms + recharge cost : $880 - $1280

I published the spreadsheet for those wanting more details...
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pSifvi4EBXcBb5IQ18tuneg

 

[needWheels]

Remember the law of ebikes where any money you save on gas will translate into accessories/safety items/toys for your bike - so $20k in gear is going to give you one heck of a pimp-mobile LOL!

(in reality you'd probably stop at $2,000 in toys, right?)

I've been looking at a map at how I could possibly get to a town 40 miles away as an adventure.
(It's fortunately has a state road next to a highway)
Would definitely need a LiFePo4 for that so it has to wait - and I am concerned about safety issues.
So a car can't be completely replaced unfortunately

 

[pwbset]

FWIW, at least one member here posts his/her current savings in their sig-file.

Look down...

Inspired by other members "eOdos", savings meters etc. I got a long way to go to recoup my ebike investment , but there are other perks too, like getting in shape, that are priceless.

 

[TylerDurden]

Americans drive 4.5 billion fewer miles in April: report
Thu Jun 19, 12:54 PM ET

WASHINGTON (AFP) - Americans drove around 4.5 billion fewer miles in April compared with the same month last year, marking the lowest mileage clocked on US roads for the month since 2003, a report showed Thursday.

The Federal Highway Administration (FHA) said in its monthly report that the number of vehicle miles driven in the United States fell by 1.8 percent, to 245.9 billion, based on preliminary data from the state highway authorities across the United States.

The number of miles traveled in April 2003 was 239.7 billion, FHA data show.

The miles traveled on US roads rose from 132.7 billion miles in 1983 to a peak of 250.9 billion miles in 2004, according to the data on the FHA website.

Most years from 1983 to 2004, with the exception of April 1990 and 1991, when the United States was engaged in the Gulf War, the number of miles Americans drove rose by several billion miles.

But beginning in 2004, the number of miles Americans put in on the roads annually began falling between 100 and 300 million miles.

And this year, the fall accelerated sharply on a yearly comparison to 4.4 billion miles.

Observers surmise a possible link between the declining number of miles driven and rising US gasoline prices.

According to a report released in April 2004 by the Congressional Research Service, the average price for petrol in the United States during the summer of 2003 was 1.74 dollars per gallon (around 3.5 liters).

Today, gasoline prices across the United States are around 3.5 times higher, averaging more than four dollars per gallon.



225Mgal @20mpg ... $0.9B@4.00/gal


:?

 

[paultrafalgar]

Curious to know how they know how many miles you've driven. Satellite reads your odometers? Man/computer counts the movements? Calculation from the gasoline used? Interesting.

 

[TylerDurden]

Interview on CounterSpin today regarding new drilling & oil prices:

MP3:
http://www.fair.org/audio/counterspin/CounterSpin062008.mp3

Counterspin (6/20/08-6/26/08)
This week on CounterSpin: John McCain says the ban on oil drilling of the U.S. coast should be lifted, to increase oil production and lower prices. Drilling opponents say the drilling won't lower prices and will endanger environments. Who's right? Mainstream reporting is little help, rarely offering more than to say that the story is about a "trade-off" between energy and environmental costs. We'll talk to Tyson Slocum, the director of Public Citizen's Energy Program, about the price of oil.

http://www.fair.org/index.php?page=3485