Can EVs survive without subsidies ?

[Ianhill]

Would be cool if they could get a 2-stroke to run on hydrogen but it's just such an annoyingly hard gas to keep pinned down and you only need a tiny leak for combustion to be possible. I'm not sure I'd want to test my luck with a hydrogen powered 2 stroke motorbike

Still I live in hope that my old bikes can be resurrected in some form in the future, not many people are willing to put up with following an old 2-smoker these days.

They crack the water into hydrogen on site and then to get round the difficulty of transporting it from a wind turbine site in the middle of nowhere they then combine it with carbon from the atmosphere to create a synthetic fuel that can be easily tankered about.

I have no idea of the process and it's efficencys or what chemicals are used to make it happen so it could be dirty in itself or the octane rating of what they plan to make but the end deal is a engine that if run on that fuel alone and it can be provided in large enough quantity to provided say half the people that didn't by into electric and have garage with a charger, solar roof, power wall and a personal windfarm to connect the new tesla truck they wants so badly.

If that's not you then there still maybe a way to have your smug face on and still say well I'm greener than you by not purchasing all that crap and having a massive carbon print over my head by the amount of stuff I buy and holidays I take and the 2 family teslas I'll argue I have less impact my way even with a diesel car I beat them because I don't have the cash to spend they forget every purchase has a carbon debt and if they want to play the blame game it's the one that have bought into the clean dream are logically not the lowest in the carbon scale not that I'm counts how many grams I created out today mind.

Top fact we lose more weight through our breath by carbon dioxide output than we excrite so large people you nw what I'm saying hold your breath or I'll tax you

 

[goatman]

I believe in the, keep it simple stupid approach to everything and most things that are smart are the most polluting/destructive things on the planet.

id like to see vw come out with the old vw bug and the bus but electric, simple, bare bones, battery, motor, controller. no self driving, no gps. no bullet proof glass for $15000. they wouldn't wind up in the scrap yard like everything else they make now.

there shouldn't be any subsidies for the auto makers and India should be allowed to start selling their cheap EV's world wide.

the real question is can the EV survive because of the subsidies, youre talking corporations and politicians.

if I could buy a car that was shipped in a box to me from china and I could put it together in a week for under 10 grand, id buy 2 of them. something like a twizzy. easily done but your govt wont let it happen

2 stroke burns oil for lubrication, theyre pigs on fuel. how much technology would have to be used to make it efficient and green, it would cost a fortune to fix so into the scrapyard it goes after 10 years

 

[Punx0r]

There are plenty of large indutrial/marine 2-stroke engines about (including diesels) that use regular sump oil lubrication and don't burn any of it. If you have a turbo or supercharger you don't need to use the crank to pressurise the cylinder(s) and consequently force the lubricating oil into the cylinder(s).

 

[Hillhater]

There are plenty of large indutrial/marine 2-stroke engines about (including diesels) that use regular sump oil lubrication and don't burn any of it. If you have a turbo or supercharger you don't need to use the crank to pressurise the cylinder(s) and consequently force the lubricating oil into the cylinder(s).

True, but you still have to lubricate the cylinder walls somehow.
Most of those large marine “diesels” run on fuel that is closer to sump oil than it is diesel
And there are plenty of 2 stroke gas (petrol) EFDI outboard motors that burn cleaner than 4 strokes !
But , unless they start emissions checks for F1 , it wont be relevant i guess !

 

[boars]

KTM TPI 2 stroke motors are meeting euro standards for now... how long they can keep that up is really an unknown for everybody except probably KTM themselves.

They're funky engines but they're a lot more complex than your vintage era 2smokes.

They're really just delaying the inevitable if they do not have a crazy breakthrough soon though. The R&D costs would be interesting to see. Once they surpass profit...

 

[Punx0r]

True, but you still have to lubricate the cylinder walls somehow.
Most of those large marine “diesels” run on fuel that is closer to sump oil than it is diesel

Yes, you do it the conventional way: from below the piston and use oil control rings.

Yep, bunker fuel

 

[TheBeastie]

Watching this new Engadget review YouTube video of the Audi e-tron, they said something I have never really heard them say but we all know.
They basically say this below in the video: "Fast charging your EV shortens its battery-pack life, charging your battery to 100% every time shortens your battery packs life, compared to 80%"
Telsa's Super-Chargers kind of pee all over this reality even though it has to be the same, as we can build ebike packs out of the same cells Panasonic make for Tesla and kill them quickly enough.
I have been using the same battery pack for 4 years now on my ebike with not really much degradation, its because the pack is generally oversized at I tend to ride on average at 350watts. So its similar to a BEV car.

Audi e-tron review: Trading range for reliability and luxury
https://youtu.be/DqgcHEMaWLg?t=61

I have no doubt BEVs are here forever now, way too many factories making EVs now and cars a have a very wide offering in price, a lot of people are willing to pay $100k for a car that doesn't do much more for them than a $20k car can do, thats the nature of cars.

Another video.
We drove the Tesla Model 3, Audi e-tron, Jaguar I-Pace, Nissan Leaf, Kia e-Niro and Mercedes EQC across the UK to see how long they could last!
Verdict, all the EVs were roughly equally as misleading/cheeky on their "claimed range" at 75% for the EQC to 78% for the Tesla M3, the standout exception was the Kia e-Niro which went 95% of its claimed range.
https://youtu.be/ZH7V2tU3iFc
[youtube]ZH7V2tU3iFc[/youtube]

 

[ZeroEm]

TheBeastie » Jan 17 2020 5:48am

Watching this new Engadget review YouTube video of the Audi e-tron, they said something I have never really heard them say but we all know.
Fast charging your EV shortens its battery-pack life, charging your battery to 100% every time shortens your battery packs life, compared to 80%
Telsa's Super-Chargers kind of pee all over this reality even though it has to be the same, as we can build ebike packs out of the same cells Panasonic make for Tesla and kill them quickly enough.
I have been using the same battery pack for 4 years now on my ebike with not really much degradation, its because the pack is generally oversized at I tend to ride on average at 350watts. So its similar to a BEV car.

Audi e-tron review: Trading range for reliability and luxury
https://youtu.be/DqgcHEMaWLg?t=61

I have no doubt BEVs are here forever now, way too many factories making EVs now and cars a have a very wide offering in price, a lot of people are willing to pay $100k for a car that doesn't do much more for them than a $20k car can do, thats the nature of cars.

We all know the subsidies were to get people to buy or try BEV. I had my fear's almost bought a hybrid with two systems to worry about. I will never go back to ICE.
Now my E-Trike bought two 25ah 72V batteries, solar charge the one not in use and swap when it's charged. Now one battery last more than I can ride in one day at this time. The reason was to get more than three years but I fear they will last 10yrs. Only have 13 charges each in the last 7 months.

 

[Hillhater]

But at your usage level..(approx 7kWh per month ?),.. you are not a typical EV user and do not travel much

 

[miro13car]

of course EV will survive without subsidies.
all is nice and running on ICE car untill 100 000-150000 kilometers when all start to fall apart, leaks, belts, gaskets, you name it.
dropping oil all over the place.

 

[Hillhater]

of course EV will survive without subsidies...

Speculation. We wont know unless the subsidies are removed.

...all is nice and running on ICE car untill 100 000-150000 kilometers when all start to fall apart, leaks, belts, gaskets, you name it.
dropping oil all over the place.

....
Untrue and irrelevant to the subject.

 

[Dauntless]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/31/tech/lyft-ebike-delays/index.html

 

[jonescg]

Australia has no EV subsidies.

Yes, sales are very slow compared to places without subsidies, but they do grow exponentially.

 

[billvon]

of course EV will survive without subsidies. all is nice and running on ICE car untill 100 000-150000 kilometers when all start to fall apart, leaks, belts, gaskets, you name it. dropping oil all over the place.

Yep. It will also lead to a strong market for used EV's, with lower income people buying used EV's that have 200K miles on them. It will be nice to get away from the disposable culture a little more.

 

[Ianhill]

Have a look at carthrottle youtube channel they have a cheap Audi that's done 550000 miles original components.
There's also a Skoda Octavia they got with 450000 miles.

 

[Hillhater]

Australia has no EV subsidies.
Aus EV Sales data to Dec 2019.png
Yes, sales are very slow compared to places without subsidies, but they do grow exponentially.

A bit of a “naughty” graph that one !
The “Cumulative” line being the total for the entire 9 year period..
..That is NOT “exponential” sales growth....up to last year, sales were FLAT.
With roughly 1 million car sales per year, that 16000 total represents less than 0.2%
And even the 2019 sales of approx 9000, only represents less than 1% of the total annual car sales.
And the majority of those EVs were the “non Tesla” (IE Cheaper) BEVs fron Hyundai, Kia, etc
Even Tesla had to reduce the price of the S and X by huge amounts ( $50k+ ?) to boost sales .

 

[Hillhater]

of course EV will survive without subsidies.
all is nice and running on ICE car untill 100 000-150000 kilometers when all start to fall apart, leaks, belts, gaskets, you name it.
dropping oil all over the place.

Either you have poor sources of information or lousy choices of cars if those comments are from personal experience.?
Most modern ICEs will run easily over 250k kms, with 500k not uncommon..if maintained correctly.
Maybe you have missed all those 1970s Toyotas, VWs, and Volvos still running around ?
Engine reliability is a non issue these days, with probability the most common cause of terminal failure being Suspension,wheel bearings, drive joints, brakes, or electrical mysteries...such that the costs of repair exceed the cost of replacement.
Much of those problems apply to any vehicle, ICE, Hybrid, BEV, etc, and in addition, EVs intoduce a whole new mass of potential failures that electrical powertrains bring with them, Batteries , inverters, massively complex electronic control systems ,
Did you miss the fact that all Tesla S & X models can expect a costly ($4-5k !) electrical repair within 5 years from rolling out of the showroom ?
Leaf owners have already experienced the impact and cost of battery problems.

 

[jonescg]

Australia has no EV subsidies.
Aus EV Sales data to Dec 2019.png
Yes, sales are very slow compared to places without subsidies, but they do grow exponentially.

A bit of a “naughty” graph that one !
The “Cumulative” line being the total for the entire 9 year period..
..That is NOT “exponential” sales growth....up to last year, sales were FLAT.
With roughly 1 million car sales per year, that 16000 total represents less than 0.2%
And even the 2019 sales of approx 9000, only represents less than 1% of the total annual car sales.
And the majority of those EVs were the “non Tesla” (IE Cheaper) BEVs fron Hyundai, Kia, etc
Even Tesla had to reduce the price of the S and X by huge amounts ( $50k+ ?) to boost sales .

You have a very strange understanding of mathematics. If the same number of EVs were being bought in Australia each year, year after year, it would be a linear graph. Because the number of EVs bought each year is markedly more than the year before, the trend is no longer linear. I can give you the very same data and you can plot it however you like. If you can get a straight line out of an exponential dataset without taking the log of either side, I'll have to start calling you Uri Geller.

 

[Ianhill]

What happened in 2018 ? There's a clear drop in the adoption of all 3 types but the baseline still exponetionally grows seems a little off to me too be honest.

Without using graphs and standing on bridges car counting I can say there's an increase in UK year on year, but the charging infrastructure has taken time to become easy to use with a simple pay method, last hurdle now is the chargers downtime is a little on the poor side buy over time that will improve no doubt.

Aviation industry is the one to watch they are playing a naughty game of converting general waste into kerosene and claiming a massive carbon reduction that doesn't make sence if you then go and burn it there's no infinate loop then it's just a way of making current reserves last longer and will create a even higher global co2 number eventually than just using fossils alone.

And to make people aware of the 15tons of carbon a young holidaying couple had emitted traveling the world they then offered them to donate £200 to plant trees and save the whale I shit you not, the whales don't really absorb c02 they emit it themselfs and planting a 7 acre tree farm accounted for 0.001% of the annual emittions of just easyjet alone.

The efforts airlines use to save on fuel tankering the fuel around the globe would alone offset the £200 effort they took from one couple to give them a clear conscious, it's a scandal and real piss take that they are overall going to emit more and putting a green spin on it just makes me want to put them in a rear naked choke.

There is a way forward to having a battery future for light small distance transport and heavy long distance haulage using a recycled fuel that's being cycled but the cost is not in any governments interest.

The only hope we got is a cheap way to lock carbon away into a block with a method that use less energy in than we get out which if you find it tell me because we will make millions, if there's a way of locking carbon up for free with out using earth to freeze it then game on but phase changing gives energy in one direction and takes it in the other and unfortunately those gases need to be a liqufied at least to contain them and that's gonna take alot of energy to perform it as it's going against the grain with the phase change game.

For me we need fusion power desperately to start forgetting about efficiency in some processes and as long as there's a general decent process happening that's cleaning the atmosphere then let it happen we need genuine great minds to debate at all levels to get a safe method of moving forward instead of this ball busting too painful too watch crap that a going on as Britain converts it's grid to run on gas and the biggest power plant in Europe being built here that can handle upto 75% grid duty on its own.

 

[jonescg]

What happened in 2018 ? There's a clear drop in the adoption of all 3 types but the baseline still exponetionally grows seems a little off to me too be honest.

In 2018 we had a drought of available models. Prior to this we had a new model or two, PHEV or BEV every year. But in 2018 we had nothing coming into the country, so whatever stock was left from the previous orders was sold, and the tail end of 2018 was very quiet. As a result, the total number of new EVs on the road increased linearly for that period. By the end of 2019 we had Hyundai selling every Ioniq and Kona EV they can get their hands on, and of course, the Model 3 hit the country in October, so that caused the bump in sales.

Over the last 10 years the number of EVs sold is generally growing exponentially, albeit from a small base.

 

[Ianhill]

I know aus can be a little strange on their import rules was that of any effect or you mean the lack of manufacturers not releasing decent BEV.

Just done a quick search on locking up carbon as a liquid or a solid and at our 1 atmosphere carbon dioxide exists as a gas at atmospheric pressure and global temp but it turns into a solid around -78c that's very energy intensive to reach and maintain but if we increase the pressure to 70 atmospheres its required temp to stay a soild will be raised to -56c but it is then possible to exist as a liquid from that range to 30c making it possible to store in a very dense form but that's one mighty pump to get to them levels and one heck of a pressure vessel.

The trick would then be to get that locked in suspension so the pressure can be removed and the carbon stay trapped in some other material like a rock etc.

I did see something special about water that makes it unique to other substances, if we take ice and apply pressure to it we can turn it back into a liquid, it's also the only other substances that expands as it freezes it has a very interesting phase change diagram compared to c02.

 

[Hillhater]

You have a very strange understanding of mathematics. If the same number of EVs were being bought in Australia each year, year after year, it would be a linear graph. Because the number of EVs bought each year is markedly more than the year before, the trend is no longer linear. I can give you the very same data and you can plot it however you like. If you can get a straight line out of an exponential dataset without taking the log of either side, I'll have to start calling you Uri Geller.

And you have a very strange understanding of sales GROWTH.,!
The number of EVs bought each year is NOT “ markedly more than the year before”....look at the data.
2016 was Less than 2015, which itself was less than 2014,....that is NEGATIVE SALES GROWTH !
2017 was better, but then 2018 was down again..more Negative sales growth !
The 2019 result was a significant upturn as you say, driven by the availability of both cheaper new models , and those massive price cuts from Tesla....you could say “incentives”
The yellow curve on that chart is TOTAL VEHICLES SOLD TO DATE...not annual sales growth. !

 

[jonescg]

I know aus can be a little strange on their import rules was that of any effect or you mean the lack of manufacturers not releasing decent BEV.

Mainly Australia being really slow to get new models in. The compliance process is quite tedious and expensive, but that only explains part of it. We are a very small RHD market - the world only makes our cars reluctantly. Decent BEVs were available elsewhere, but they're not making it here fast enough.

Just done a quick search on locking up carbon as a liquid or a solid and at our 1 atmosphere carbon dioxide exists as a gas at atmospheric pressure and global temp but it turns into a solid around -78c that's very energy intensive to reach and maintain but if we increase the pressure to 70 atmospheres its required temp to stay a soild will be raised to -56c but it is then possible to exist as a liquid from that range to 30c making it possible to store in a very dense form but that's one mighty pump to get to them levels and one heck of a pressure vessel.

The trick would then be to get that locked in suspension so the pressure can be removed and the carbon stay trapped in some other material like a rock etc.

I did see something special about water that makes it unique to other substances, if we take ice and apply pressure to it we can turn it back into a liquid, it's also the only other substances that expands as it freezes it has a very interesting phase change diagram compared to c02.

Carbon sequestration can be made to work under very specific circumstances, geology permitting. But the main reason it's not being done in any meaningful way is because it usually doesn't work and they really don't want to do it. Either the energetics are crazy (takes an extra 25% of primary energy to compress and cool a portion of the emissions) or in the case of the massive Gorgon gas hub development in north west Western Australia, they only got permission to build the hub on the condition they use capture and storage. They never even filed the planning docs when the first cubic metre of gas came up. After 10 years and millions of tons of CO2 later, they ask for an extension of the state government. Who of course gave them an extension because they are politically beholden to the gas giants. Meanwhile nothing has happened.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/nov/14/half-of-australias-emissions-increase-linked-to-was-gorgon-lng-plant
That article is old, but don't worry, still nothing has happened.

 

[jonescg]

It pains me to do this every time you interpret the same data completely differently to everyone else, but would you agree that there is a non-linear increase in the number of EVs on the road? Ipso facto, there has been a general trend towards increasing sales? Yes, it comes in fits and spurts with sales in some years worse than others, but the trend is overall positive?

And absolutely, it's slow growth. But growth nonetheless.

 

[Hillhater]

I interperet the data as i read it, not to simply agree with or support someone else’s interpretation.

....would you agree that there is a non-linear increase in the number of EVs on the road? Ipso facto, there has been a general trend towards increasing sales?.....

NO ! .. read that statement again..
A non linear increase does not mean there must have been increasing sales !
As i pointed out 2015, 2016,and 2018 all were clearly years with decreasing sales.
Sales could have decreased every year on year, and yet still resulted in a “non linear increase in the numbers on the road”
If we were having this discussion 12 months ago, the conclusion would be one about a complete collapse of the EV sales market in Oz !
Its only the 2019 unique result that gives any hope of a growing sales trend.