formula101's Covid-19 topic

[formula101]

Exactly as I predicted three days ago, martial law is being implemented throughout the US:

National Guard deployed in many states to help with coronavirus. What can they do?

Read more here: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article241271171.html#storylink=cpy


More than 1,500 National Guard members throughout 22 states are assisting in the coronavirus pandemic, according to the Guard. Thousands more are on standby for if their states need them.

So what can National Guard members do during a global health pandemic like coronavirus?

In New York, which has been one of the state’s hit the hardest by COVID-19, members “have been working with state and local officials to distribute food, disinfect public spaces and help run mobile screening facilities,” according to the National Guard.

This is in addition to quarantining I predicted also:

In NY:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/17/new-yorkers-should-be-prepared-for-a-shelter-in-place-order-mayor-bill-de-blasio-says.html

In SF:
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-16/how-the-san-francisco-bay-areas-coronavirus-shelter-in-place-order-works

In Sonoma County:
https://abc7news.com/society/sonoma-co-residents-brace-for-shelter-in-place-order-amidst-covid-19-pandemic/6023255/

In Santa Cruz county:
https://www.santacruzhealth.org/Portals/7/Pdfs/Coronavirus/Shelter%20in%20Place%20Order%20March%2016%202020.pdf

In Hollister:
https://sanbenitolive.com/hollister-mayor-issues-shelter-in-place-order/

6 Bay Area counties:
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/6-bay-area-counties-in-california-order-shelter-in-place
If affects the counties of San Francisco, Marin, Santa Clara, San Mateo, Alameda and Contra Costa, as well as the city of Berkeley.

Monterey County:
https://www.thecalifornian.com/story/news/2020/03/17/monterey-county-health-officer-orders-shelter-place/5073496002/

Palm Springs:
https://abc7.com/6022550

 

[formula101]

Canada, US, Taiwan, etc, banning international travel:

https://apnews.com/0cf7a859ea267cc586826b0109d64013

 

[formula101]

Florida's beaches are packed, because everyone knows sh#ttymexicanbeervirus is a fake:

https://twitter.com/SarahHollenbeck/status/1239621939729235968?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1239621939729235968&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.chicagotribune.com%2Fcoronavirus%2Fct-nw-coronavirus-in-united-states-updates-20200317-yg4uwuq4dbaybkivc2rimkoaou-story.html

 

[formula101]

I feel there is a flaw in all these stats that are reported.
We have to assume the number of deaths reported is reliable and correctly atributed to CV19 complications. OK
Most sources are reporting death rates of 1%-10%+ of the “confirmed cases”.
But the number of “Confirmed Cases” has to be directly related to the amount of testing done. ?
..and that has, and will, change daily, presumeably increasing in number as more resources and kits are made available.
Also, not every potential case is tested...you have to “qualify” as a potential risk or have obvious symptoms.
Many have been refused a test. Many possible cases will go untested, and hence unconfirmed.
Most health authorities admit its impossible to find all active cases.
So inevitably there are more actual cases than those reported.
But the number of deaths will not increase irrespective of how much testing is done.
The only real solid data we have for “death % “ is from the Diamond Princess cruise ship where we know that the entire 3700+ passengers and crew were tested, of which 712 were confirmed cases, and 7 were deaths. (0.2% death ratio of the population)
The data from Wuhan is lesss reliable, but the Authorities claim to have tested 99% of the population (10+m ?) and we know they reported 3000+ deaths (0.03% death ratio of the population ?)

7/712 is actually 0.8%. However, cruise ship passenger age median is 65. For genpop in US, it's 38. In other words, shittymexicanbeervirus is generic flu virus. A bit worse perhaps, but probably not.

 

[formula101]

Martial law is coming to California:

https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/03/17/coronavirus-governor-newsom-places-california-national-guard-on-alert-fight-against-covid19/

 

[formula101]

I suspect a lot of this is going to be a self fulfilling prophecy.

Social isolation causes health problems.

Social isolation indoors tends to leads to sitting, which causes health problems.

Staying indoors means reduced or zero vitamin d production, leading to health problems.

Staying indoors means watching tv and/or getting on the computer, meaning they become more fearful and anxious, emotional states which lead to health problems.

Staying indoors means little to no exercise, leading to health problems.

Basically, every aspect of preventing health problems actually CAUSES the health problems we are trying to avoid.

The best way of avoiding shittymexicanbeervirus is to DO THE EXACT OPPOSITE OF WHAT CDC AND WHO RECOMMEND!

Get oxygen, sunlight, and exercise OUTDOORS. Maintain REASONABLE CAUTION the same as you would with the flu in general.

 

[formula101]

Here is the only reasonable, balanced and INFORMATIVE video I've seen so far on the topic. I'm not saying it's accurate, however. It is also the first I've seen which identifies shittymexicanbeervirus under a microscope.

The conclusion is that shittybeervirus is far less of a threat than SARS. And almost nobody gave a shit about SARS. The problem with his analysis is, actually several, are as follows:

1. he does not take into account how long term quarantining damages health

2. the immune system requires some level of activity in order to maintain full strength. Total disinfection is actually bad for your immune system.

3. his death rate is not as accurate as the cruise ship test case, which actually finds that the death rate is far lower than 3%. It is actually 0.8% and that is with a test population that is far older than the general population, average age of 47 (minimum) and median age of 65.

In reality, the death rate of shittybeervirus is likely no higher than 0.5% and maybe significantly lower than that. I'll have to check out death rates from the regular flu for elderly aged 65 and above. Keep in mind, ALL deaths on the cruise ship were elderly 70 and above and likely all of them had underlying health issues of one kind or another.

Also keep in mind that the air was being constantly recirculated on the ship from reports I've heard.

This is MASSIVELY OVERBLOWN PSY OPS AND MIND F#CKING.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aPvpfC7NfR0

Here is a video of what the flu virus SUPPOSEDLY looks like. It looks nearly identical to the shittybeervirus. If you look at actual images, the level of resolution is exceptionally poor. It's very difficult to identify what are the actual components of the virus vs. video and photographic grain and noise. In other words, all of these theories about the flu and shittybeervirus are likely highly speculative.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CYU3Z5QMgVQ

 

[formula101]

Unless any of you have done some actual research on what the flu virus is structurally, how it is identified under a microscope, how it reproduces, how it binds to host cells (or not), I can pretty much guarantee everything they write is total bullish#t.

Ultimately, you're going to have to look at the actual dna strands to verify whether or not you are looking at mutations which differ significantly from the standard flu.

EVERYTHING ELSE IS TOTAL 100% GUESSWORK. This is where the bullsh#t artists who call themselves "scientists," i.e. epidemiologists. Epidemiologists make statistical guesses, and in the case of shittybeervirus, totally outlandish ones as well as conservative ones, with ZERO SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE OF THE VIRUS ITSELF.

I guarantee that 99.9% of people who are talking about shittybeervirus or any other virus DON'T HAVE ANY EXPERTISE ON THE TOPIC AND ARE MERELY SPECULATING AND GUESSING.

Although I am not a medical doctor I do have significant coursework background at the college level in basic biology and chemistry, molecular biology, and physiology, so I can get up to speed rather quickly. Which I will be doing over the course of the next few days.

So you guys keep on quoting those fake "experts" who
a) are epidemiologists (bean counters with no scientific training in medicine)
b) fake doctors who will say anything they have to to maintain their jobs meaning they will spout out the most ridiculous numbers possible to keep you afraid.

I am warning all of you right now: medical "research" has been thoroughly compromised by pharmaceutical companies so very little medical research is truly objective. Both private corporations and the government finance the researchers who "discover" findings beneficial to the agenda of both government and corporations.

There is very little objective information out there since it is compromised by political and corporate biases and interests.

Here is a short primer about the actual structure of the flu virus. As you read, you will discover, that even in 2020, there is still much about the virus strains which are unknown. In particular scientists are still forced into guesswork about the exact nature and function of the protein spikes. There is still a great deal about "scientific knowledge" which is conjectural and not well understood:

https://micro.magnet.fsu.edu/cells/viruses/influenzavirus.html

 

[formula101]

A couple of factors which have received little to not attention to date:

1. China has a staggering rate of smoking: over 52% of the male population smokes, and close to 30% overall.

2. the level of industrial pollution in China is off the charts. In a strange, ironic twist, it's likely that shittybeer actually SAVED many more lives than it took. Because of shittybeer, industrial production has slowed to a crawl, cleaning up the air significantly.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/08/china-air-pollution-blocks-solar-panels-green-energy/

2a. They may also have Donald Trump to thank, due to trade tariffs which shifted production to other parts of the world, again, leading to significantly lower levels of pollution.

In reality, a slight mutation to the standard flu, combined with unprecedented health threats posed by smoking and industrial pollution from factories may have led to the unusually high death rate: reportedly 3.4% in China.

3. I'll have to read up on this, but Italy also supposedly has an older average population age which could help explain in part, why death rates may be unusually high there.

https://www.businessinsider.com/italy-coronavirus-old-population-cases-death-rate-2020-3

However, even on a cruise ship in the US with a very high average and median age, the death rate was only 0.8%, so the evidence is contradictory to say the least.

Therefore, it is plausible to consider the possibility that if you subtract unusually high levels of pollution and threats to health such as smoking, death rates may prove far lower, perhaps approximately equal to the standard flu.

It is also possible that the data is being skewed for political purposes in order to pursue the ongoing aims of those in power: decreased rights of assembly, movement, free speech and the right to bear arms, all of which weigh heavily in favor of increased control by political and economic elites.

 

[formula101]

So far, pretty much the only postings are from bullish#t sky high epidemiological estimates and corrupt doctors who are making the rounds shilling their fear factory books or pimping themselves off to government research grants and positions which keep them fat and happy.

I suggest anyone who is truly interested in the topic actually do some research on shittybeevirus itself, not the fear porn that is circulating and dominating conversation. Here is a nice introduction for beginners:

https://asm.org/Articles/2020/January/2019-Novel-Coronavirus-2019-nCoV-Update-Uncoating

Here is a more detailed introduction for those who have some college level coursework in biology and physiology:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4369385/

Medical research has become heavily compromised in the past 2 decades so it's almost impossible to vouch for anything anymore. Almost all scientific research is corrupt to some degree because of funding and political influence.

 

[formula101]

Just keep it to opinions about the panic-demic, and not opinions about each other folks. That's why the other threads got locked. It was turning into a personal fight.

I did delete a few things, because they were triggering the fight, not because I questioned the statements. If its causing the fight, and getting quoted along with the personal attack, we have to delete.

So just think a bit before you hit post. Good info is helpful, starting a fight is not. Go start a thread in toxic if you must.

I'm reading what I can on the virus itself. The research is pretty straight forward if you have some college level scientific coursework, but no scientific research is truly trustworthy because of the nature of funding, appointments to academic and governmental positions, and to private foundations.

Basically, the richest corporations and most powerful government entities fund and promote research and researchers which serve their interests so there is really no such thing as objective scientific research these days.

One of the strange aspects of this variant of shittybeer virus is that very, very few children seem to fail ill from it, which is very much unlike previous shittybeer viruses and from the flu in general. It seems as if only elderly rather than the very young are most prone.

Again, no one has sought to explain this, which is leading to conspiracy theories that this is a genetically engineered virus targeting the older population. This is speculative of course, but very puzzling nonetheless.

There are other odd patterns in the data:

1. Taiwan has an exceptionally low rate of shittybeervirus infections and deaths, although 2,000 Chinese tourists visit every single day.

2. Vancouver BC has a huge Chinese population with extensive int'l travel especially from China yet there are only 3 deaths from shittybeer.

3. I don't believe Australia, with it's huge Chinese population and high rate of int'll travel from China, has anywhere near the death rate of Italy.

If we can make out a pattern at all, it seems as if the primary targets for shittybeer are the elderly (70 and over) and those with compromised respiratory systems (mainland Chinese who smoke at a higher rate than anywhere else in the world AND live in highly polluted environments.

Therefore, it is likely that the elderly with compromised immune systems and those with SPECIFIC "underlying health problems" namely compromised respiratory systems due to smoking and industrial pollution are most susceptible.

 

[formula101]

In any event, I recommend everyone at least read the beginner's primer I linked to, and for those who are a little more adventurous, try reading the NCBI paper I linked to.

The NCBI paper is a surprisingly interesting read, and IMHO, quite informative. It gives a good overview of coronaviruses and flu viruses and how they differ from one another in language that I think any college educated reader could readily understand.

 

[Punx0r]

Just keep it to opinions about the panic-demic, and not opinions about each other folks. That's why the other threads got locked. It was turning into a personal fight.

Is posting misinformation about the virus, it's threat or how to mitigate it at least considered Off Topic considering Scooterman101's original post?

 

[formula101]

Just keep it to opinions about the panic-demic, and not opinions about each other folks. That's why the other threads got locked. It was turning into a personal fight.

Is posting misinformation about the virus, it's threat or how to mitigate it at least considered Off Topic considering Scooterman101's original post?

No one on this forum has anywhere near enough scientific training to make this determination. The assertion in and of itself is laughable.

 

[formula101]

Interesting article on potential benefits of vitamin c:

https://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2020/02/24/iv-vitamin-c.aspx

 

[Punx0r]

Just keep it to opinions about the panic-demic, and not opinions about each other folks. That's why the other threads got locked. It was turning into a personal fight.

Is posting misinformation about the virus, it's threat or how to mitigate it at least considered Off Topic considering Scooterman101's original post?

No one on this forum has anywhere near enough scientific training to make this determination. The assertion in and of itself is laughable.

Then perhaps you should stop posting medical advice based on fringe internet sources and your own opinions.

 

[jonescg]

A few points -

This novel coronavirus is dangerous because it's novel (therefore no human has antibodies to defeat it) and because it causes a severe acute respiratory syndrome. Because nobody has an inherent immunity to it, people are floored with fever, aches and chills, as well as a dry cough, headaches and if the reaction is severe, fluid accumulation in the lower lungs, leading to pneumonia.

The mortality rate, which is a moving target right now, is currently estimated at about 10 times higher than the seasonal flu.
Mortality rate is higher for the elderly, and lower for the young, but there are many cases of serious illness in those under 40. Carriers and spreaders are often without symptoms, which makes it particularly hard to track infections once a positive test is made. While the numbers might not seem all that huge, it's about the timing and the immediate strain on resources - once resources are overwhelmed the death toll rises because of the high rate of spread and lengthy recovery period.

The reason the mortality rate is a moving target is because it really depends on the speed of transmission, the healthcare arrangements in your country, and the rate with which isolating patients takes place. It also varies a lot depending on the demographics of the population - Italy has lots of older folks, and plenty of them smoke. Developing nations have lower average ages with a skew to younger folks, so the overall mortality in these places will be lower.

Australia is tracking OK, but we have been very slow to respond. Epidemiologists are aghast at the indifference our politicians have shown to the problem, as they believe our (admittedly very good) healthcare system can manage just fine. If severe cases overwhelm the hospitals, you will have folks dying in the hallways.

https://www.covid19data.com.au/

Over 560 cases, 6 deaths so far, all over 65 years old. If the goal is to contain the disease, limit infections, minimise the risk of overloading the healthcare system, and keep it at bay until a vaccine is ready, then social distancing and the banning of large gatherings works. Exponential charts like this are very sensitive to initial infection loading, so time is everything. Will this be the pandemic of the century? Probably not - HIV AIDS has killed 30 million and counting. But it has the potential to be devastating.

Oh - the vast majority of our cases were from the USA. A few from Iran, Italy and China, but overwhelmingly USA. Hell, our very own Minister for Home Affairs contracted it from the White House!

My brother is a nurse at RBH and is on the frontline there - it's going to be a long winter I think.

 

[Hillhater]

The only real solid data we have for “death % “ is from the Diamond Princess cruise ship where we know that the entire 3700+ passengers and crew were tested, of which 712 were confirmed cases, and 7 were deaths. (0.2% death ratio of the population)

7/712 is actually 0.8%. However, cruise ship passenger age median is 65. For genpop in US, it's 38. In other words, shittymexicanbeervirus is generic flu virus. A bit worse perhaps, but probably not.

Sure, ..but 7/3700 is 0.2%.
..And that is the ONLY figure you can compare to other locations, because the only firm data we have is actual deaths and total population ( same as with the common flu !)

It has been reported that S Korea tested “all” its popiulation (51m, hard to believe !) but if true and with <100 deaths to date that would be a ratio of 1 in 500,000. !!
Even if they only tested 10% of the population, the death ratio would still only be 1 in 50,000

 

[Punx0r]

By this logic gunshot to the head is considered rarely fatal as the vast majority of the 7 billion people in the world have not been killed by it. Please be sensible.

The Diamond Princess case establishes two things:

1) Transmissibility: All passengers were stringently quarantined in their own cabins for several weeks when a handful of cases occurred. Despite this, 712 people (~19% of the sample population) became infected.

2) Death rate: Passengers were immediately removed to hospital and given ample medical care as soon as symptoms were detected. In this scenario, 1% of those infected died as a result (7/712).

Different exposure environments, quarantine conditions, demographics, treatment standards will likely yield different infection and mortality rates.

 

[HK12K]

I suspect that the numbers are artificially low. Due to a supposed lack of nasal swabs testing is being drastically limited, at least in BC and ON. Essentially unless you're on deaths door, in a specific high risk group, or are native, they're not going to test you. (Enjoy that sweet sweet reconciliation!)

https://covid19.thrive.health/

"Who should be tested for COVID-19?

People with respiratory symptoms who are:

Hospitalized, or likely to be hospitalized
Health Care Workers
Residents of long term care facilities
Part of an investigation of a cluster or outbreak

Who does not need to be tested for COVID-19?

People without symptoms
Patients with mild respiratory symptoms who can be managed at home, including returning travellers with an onset of illness within 14 days of return to Canada

The BC Ministry of Health strongly urges anyone who has symptoms - including a fever, cough, sneezing, sore throat, or difficulty breathing - to self-isolate for 14 days. To protect yourself while out in public, wash your hands frequently and maintain a distance of about 2 metres from others. For more information on COVID-19, refer to HealthLink BC's COVID-19 website."

 

[nicobie]

Florida's beaches are packed, because everyone knows sh#ttymexicanbeervirus is a fake:

I don't know why you insist on calling it "shittymexicanbeervirus" when we all know that it's really "Trump flu".

 

[nicobie]

Just keep it to opinions about the panic-demic, and not opinions about each other folks. That's why the other threads got locked. It was turning into a personal fight.

No one on this forum has anywhere near enough scientific training to make this determination. The assertion in and of itself is laughable.

Then perhaps you should stop posting medical advice based on fringe internet sources and your own opinions.

I agree.

I'm tempted to start a fight in order to get this thread and it's crazy conspiracy ideas deleted. But I won't.

 

[markz]

Russia is not telling the world what the #'s are.

 

[goatman]

Russia is not telling the world what the #'s are.

that's why I was asking skorohod, Russia acted quickly unlike the majority of the world. if you look at who reacted quickly compared to who didn't. you see it in the case numbers. Russia deported Chinese students that didn't follow the quarantine. I think 88 students broke the quarantine and were put on a plane home. one of their mps went to france and didn't self quarantine and his fellow members freaked out so he went to quarantine and might lose his mp status. then again maybe Russia isn't reporting the numbers. countries that acted quickly and strictly seem to be fairing better than us. look at the phillipines. Dueterte? sent everyone home for a month and the employer has to be pay them a months wages and if the company doesn't pay they lose their business licence.

 

[formula101]

Just keep it to opinions about the panic-demic, and not opinions about each other folks. That's why the other threads got locked. It was turning into a personal fight.

Is posting misinformation about the virus, it's threat or how to mitigate it at least considered Off Topic considering Scooterman101's original post?

No one on this forum has anywhere near enough scientific training to make this determination. The assertion in and of itself is laughable.

Then perhaps you should stop posting medical advice based on fringe internet sources and your own opinions.

Peer reviewed journals are not fringe sources. My opinions are based upon medical reality, yours on hysteria and hate.