Obstacles in the Way

[Hillhater]

australia here, some observations:
rooftop solar has been massive in australia, 1 in 4 homes recorded as having them in 2020 ( csiro data), we are having closures of coal powered generation plants.
Now the really odd thing about all this is: those still paying for grid electricity are paying more than ever, the prices just keep going up and up.
Go figure?

The Australian situation is complicated buy the way the grid deals with its independent generator power supply contractors.
In simple terms, The “Wholesale Market” ( buying power from independent generators) is a rolling auction system with generators “bidding” a supply price (per MWh) for each 5 minute sector of demand.
the lowest bid set the price paid to all suppliers for that period.
Unfortunately, this system is open to abuse ( market “gaming”) , especially where some generators operate both fossil generators as well as Wind and Solar generators, and when there are shortages of supply due to the unreliability of RE systems and the premiture closure of Coal geneerators.
This results in the reliance on expensive Gas “peaker” generators to fill the gaps.
Ultimately this leads to massive fluctuations ($30 - $14,000/MWh) in the wholesale price throughout the day..depending on the weather and spot demand.
Those cost fluctuations are adsorbed by the Retail suppliers who spread them out over a long period , (12 months ?) and add on the various overheads and margins to arrive at a set consumer cost
this log of power supply mix in SA ( a state with more % RE than others) gives an indication og the wild fluctuations in supply mix throughout the day..

 

[Jrbe]

correct, and if you extrapolate that to a 50%+ penitration of RT solar you rapidly approach a situation where the “grid” model becomes financially unviable due to deminished customer base.

Can you explain further? I'm missing why it would be unviable.
RT is? Roof top?
A lot of areas in the US are moving to require battery storage to back feed power. If these 50% renewable power "generators" can also have storage they can help support the grid and even supply other consumers if they eased up max system size limitations. If things changed overnight, yeah things would be chaotic. But over months / years I don't see how they could be that slow to react.

..but not just RT solar……at the same time the grid is continually pouring more capital into Wind & Solar + storage, whilst writing off existing functional Fossil and Nuclear generation..hence amplifying the overhead grid costs for the remaining consumers to support.

It's a choice. Russian gas / oil is not desirable for most people or countries. There are also emission goals different countries are trying to meet. Cost / demand / source / pollution balance.

That is being trialled in some areas, but requires consumers to have their own storage with sufficient RT solar to generate sufficient excess for both the consumers requirements and the possibile grid requests…..with the obvious extra costs to the consumer

That's why we need smart meters and smart grids / pricing. If we did and allowed solar generation of 200% normal usage the costs would go down.

Currently, (in Australia at least) RT solar and domestic storage batteries are government subsidised, but as Feed in Tarrifs are reduced, there is less incentive to enter into these “grid support” schemes.
FYI….current Australian domestic grid supply is approx Au$0.30/kWh, and FIT is $0.06 - $0.10 /kWh

 

[Jrbe]

The Australian situation is complicated buy the way the grid deals with its independent generator power supply contractors.
In simple terms, The “Wholesale Market” ( buying power from independent generators) is a rolling auction system with generators “bidding” a supply price (per MWh) for each 5 minute sector of demand.
the lowest bid set the price paid to all suppliers for that period.
Unfortunately, this system is open to abuse ( market “gaming”) , especially where some generators operate both fossil generators as well as Wind and Solar generators, and when there are shortages of supply due to the unreliability of RE systems and the premiture closure of Coal geneerators.
This results in the reliance on expensive Gas “peaker” generators to fill the gaps.
Ultimately this leads to massive fluctuations ($30 - $14,000/MWh) in the wholesale price throughout the day..depending on the weather and spot demand.
Those cost fluctuations are adsorbed by the Retail suppliers who spread them out over a long period , (12 months ?) and add on the various overheads and margins to arrive at a set consumer cost
this log of power supply mix in SA ( a state with more % RE than others) gives an indication og the wild fluctuations in supply mix throughout the day..

This is the challenge of the old systems trying to handle evolution of power generation. These wholesale systems should be able to almost instantly tap residential / business battery storage to fill the demand. Not as an on off switch but as a power request. Big generators can bid on demand too. This would be a truly free market.
These antiquated systems fit the big and slow generators well - taking time to startup / sync. If they were faster / instant and setup properly I believe things would be much better.

 

[Jrbe]

I think it's much simpler than that. Do real time pricing in both directions (sell and buy) and then let the market control power demand/supply.

Yeah, that's what I was getting at. I guess I didn't explain it well..

There's not much resilience in the public utility grids here (US), but more and more often behind-the-meter systems are able to island in the event of a power outage. Some companies even sell kits to enable such systems to survive EMP, which hardens them against interference due to flares.

Agreed. I think we're averaging 3 days total of power outages on average over 10 years where I am (US - CT.) It's part of why I'm going solar with storage. I'm planning a Sol-Ark w/ emp / solar flare protection.

 

[JackFlorey]

Yeah, that's what I was getting at. I guess I didn't explain it well..

OK cool. I thought you were suggesting some method by which utilities could control on-premises equipment (which is what many such programs do now) rather than a purely price-based system. I agree; simple power pricing works very well, because everyone likes to make as much money as possible and spend as little as possible.

Agreed. I think we're averaging 3 days total of power outages on average over 10 years where I am (US - CT.) It's part of why I'm going solar with storage. I'm planning a Sol-Ark w/ emp / solar flare protection.

The Sol-Arks are good inverters - but be aware that there are now over a dozen inverter manufacturers that offer very similar products for much less. I recently got an EG4 8K hybrid inverter for $2600 on sale.

 

[Hillhater]

Can you explain further? I'm missing why it would be unviable.
RT is? Roof top?

As you mentioned previously, if 50% of consumers are self sufficient using RT (Roof Top solar) , the the grid effectively looses 50% of its customers and demand…..leaving the remaining customers to fund the entire grid infrastructure overhead costs .
Simplisticly, that could mean a huge (doubling) of costs to the remaining grid users.
Most likely , even more consumers would be financially forced to install RT, causing a cascading effect with fewer and fewer grid users paying ever higher costs.
At some point in supply/demand capacity, a State /National grid becomes unsustainable ?

 

[Hillhater]

It's a choice. Russian gas / oil is not desirable for most people or countries. There are also emission goals different countries are trying to meet. Cost / demand / source / pollution balance.

Russian oil and gas are not factors for most non European countries.
Prices of electricity have been escalating since the begining of the RE generation introduction (1990s)
Australia, USA, etc have plentiful independent , cheap, gas, coal, and oil resources to last 100s of years, it is only green politics that is forcing the CO2 agenda to limit their use and hence dictate price increases due to the generation constraints.

 

[Jrbe]

As you mentioned previously, if 50% of consumers are self sufficient using RT (Roof Top solar) , the the grid effectively looses 50% of its customers and demand…..leaving the remaining customers to fund the entire grid infrastructure overhead costs .

If those 50% were electricity generators / stabilizers as well pricing could be better if private generators weren't greedy. I guess things depend on who is controlling pricing. More suppliers should mean more competitive (lower) generation costs.

Simplisticly, that could mean a huge (doubling) of costs to the remaining grid users.

Curious, does your utility separate out generation and transmission?

Most likely , even more consumers would be financially forced to install RT, causing a cascading effect with fewer and fewer grid users paying ever higher costs.
At some point in supply/demand capacity, a State /National grid becomes unsustainable ?

Currently in the US there are options if people own their home. Lease, buy, or solar loan. These end up cheaper than a normal electric bill. Lots of big solar companies taking advantage of people though. But you have to own a home or find a landlord willing to do solar (not likely.)

I'm not sure how the transmission side of things makes sense going forward as privately owned. If state owned they don't have to do things "for the shareholders".

 

[JackFlorey]

As you mentioned previously, if 50% of consumers are self sufficient using RT (Roof Top solar) , the the grid effectively looses 50% of its customers and demand…..leaving the remaining customers to fund the entire grid infrastructure overhead costs .

If those 50% of consumers are self sufficient with solar AND battery, and there are adequate price signals, then the remaining customers have to pay for less infrastructure and generation - since some of that generation is now coming from the guy three doors down from them. That is power that 1) does not have to be generated and 2) power that does not have to go through any transmission lines.

 

[Hillhater]

If those 50% were electricity generators / stabilizers as well pricing could be better if private generators weren't greedy. I guess things depend on who is controlling pricing. More suppliers should mean more competitive (lower) generation costs.

That 50% with RT are CUSTOMERS still and have no say in the pricing they get for any feed back to the grid.
the grid and retail suppliers are still controlling the pricing and FIT tarrifs. Remember thay are corporate businesses intent on maximising profits. They wont give up that advantage easily.

Curious, does your utility separate out generation and transmission?

I wont speak for the USA (jack ?) but in Aistralia, UK, Germany , etc, the consumer pays a retail price ( say, $0.30/kWh) of which only $0.05-$0.08 is the actual power cost,..the rest is transmission, distribution, margins and tax’s.
Unless the utility grid is discontinued , all the infrastructure will need to remain and be maintained to service that minority still dependent on it…..there will always be a proportion of consumers unable to use RT

If those 50% of consumers are self sufficient with solar AND battery, and there are adequate price signals, then the remaining customers have to pay for less infrastructure and generation - since some of that generation is now coming from the guy three doors down from them. That is power that 1) does not have to be generated and 2) power that does not have to go through any transmission lines.

That is an idealistic view, of which there is NO indication that it has happened anywhere yet ! ( several countries have 50%+ RE in their supply, but prices continue to rise

in the US there are options if people own their home. Lease, buy, or solar loan. These end up cheaper than a normal electric bill.

That is a widely held belief, but you have to do your own calculations based on your personal situation and offers, utility costs, FIT levels, etc
escalating utility supply prices make it more attractive, especially if you have a sunny climate and high subsidies/ cheap leases.
But it will never be a viable option for many . …and financially marginal for many others.
Even a very cheap RT system will be practically useless in Northern Europe , UK, etc in winter time.
No individual could afford sufficient batteries ( or large enough solar array) to carry through the winter.