Why are LiFePO4 costs still high?

[jasontaylor]

There should be an economies of scale relation, such that costs go down when sales go up. But LiFePO4 costs the same now as many years ago. Does anyone know why the costs are not coming down? SLA are extremely heavy, and lead is expensive, so I would assume SLAs should eventually cost more than LiFePO4. Is there some patent causing prices to be high? Lithium, iron, and phosphorous are all dirt cheap, so that doesn't explain it.

 

[Schlafmutze]

Because the mainstream market doesn't want to use it I think.
Even though Lifepo4 has twice the lifetime if not more than Li-ion types
Higher discharge and higher charge rates, and can handle things better, and doesn't go bang when you turn your back on them.

Wish they used more Lifepo4 though, things like making car batteries standard lifepo4 would be great.

 

[mvly]

Partly demand. There is not enough demand to get to economy of scale. They are still in the low quantity stage as with all lithium. Wait forthe giga factory or buy used cells for cheap lithium batteries.

 

[dogman dan]

As long as they are still selling enough of them, the price will never drop one penny. Production costs won't affect the demand side, till a true glut of product exists. If they turn down the spigot, then they can keep the price high.

 

[DRL]

BASF Begins Commercial Production of LFP Cathode Materials in Weimar, Germany

Published on May 22, 2014 at 6:27 AM
BASF today announces the launch of commercial production of LFP (lithium iron phosphate) cathode materials in Weimar, Germany. BASF is operating a 3,000 metric ton (MT) per year plant in Weimar, leveraging LFP precursors produced at the BASF headquarters site in Ludwigshafen, Germany. IBU-Tec, a specialist in rotary kiln technology and systems, is carrying out operations at the Weimar manufacturing plant under the supervision and full operational control of BASF.

BASF has a long-term license with global rights for the production and sale of LFP battery materials technology from LiFePO4+C Licensing AG, Muttenz, Switzerland, an affiliate of Clariant AG. LiFePO4+C has the leading global patent portfolio in LFP technology. BASF is also licensed by Argonne National Laboratory, the global leader in NCM technology, to produce and sell advanced NCM materials.

BASF is building up a broad portfolio of battery materials technology, supporting its long-term objective of becoming the leading provider of functional materials and components to serve cell and battery manufacturers worldwide.For more information:

By 2020, BASF expects its strategically relevant market for
battery materials to reach at least €5 billion. To participate in
this market, BASF has committed to invest a triple-digit million
euro sum to develop its global Battery Materials business. By
2020, the company expects sales of at least €500 million in this
area, thereof approximately €350 million in Asia.
The major R&D objective is to significantly increase energy
density per kilogram in batteries for electromobility. Higher
energy density in a battery leads to a reduction in weight and
materials and thus supports a lower price.
=========================================
Don't know if this is directly related but it may be a step in the right direction.???

 

[wb9k]

As long as they are still selling enough of them, the price will never drop one penny. Production costs won't affect the demand side, till a true glut of product exists. If they turn down the spigot, then they can keep the price high.

We're not selling enough of them, and are working furiously to get cell prices down. FWIW, we're also building more starter batteries than anything else right now, they're just not visible to most of the public yet. Operating a plant at 20-40% (as has been the case in Livonia since day 1 until now) of capacity is expensive. LG's (not LFP) Li-ion plant in Holland MI was at 0% for a few years. Production recently began there, but they are also a long way from capacity in any of their automotive Li battery facilities, AFAIK. Even the plants in China are mostly way below capacity. Overproducing doesn't make sense because the cells have a shelf life. We're still a couple years away from real economies of scale with any EV program out there. A glance at EV and hybrid market penetration (<2% last I checked) should make that immediately clear.

 

[arkmundi]

Question fer'ya wb9k: at what scale might a LEV maker sign a contract with A123, ie., entry point? For instance if a consortium of USA based eBike resellers were to co-purchase a set of battery packs in various configurations - 24v, 36v, 48v, 60v, 72v - and - 10ah, 20ah, 30ah, 40ah - what is the minimum initial order size that would garner a corporate response? Thanks.

 

[dogman dan]

I'm such a pessimist. Solar panels were supposed to get very cheap if they just made more, but they didn't. Oil is fairly cheap to produce, it's sold expensive. etc.

They charge what the market will bear. I don't hold my breath waiting for things to get cheaper. But I will take it when the same price gets a better product. Pricing is voodoo I don't understand. But I do understand they charge what they can.

 

[wb9k]

Question fer'ya wb9k: at what scale might a LEV maker sign a contract with A123, ie., entry point? For instance if a consortium of USA based eBike resellers were to co-purchase a set of battery packs in various configurations - 24v, 36v, 48v, 60v, 72v - and - 10ah, 20ah, 30ah, 40ah - what is the minimum initial order size that would garner a corporate response? Thanks.

Sales is changing at A123. You will soon see direct channels to the public straight from Livonia. I also expect it to get easier to get to what you're talking about here, but it's too early for me to tell. Stay tuned, and in the meantime maybe contact the company to put a bug in their ear.

 

[wb9k]

I'm such a pessimist. Solar panels were supposed to get very cheap if they just made more, but they didn't. Oil is fairly cheap to produce, it's sold expensive. etc.

They charge what the market will bear. I don't hold my breath waiting for things to get cheaper. But I will take it when the same price gets a better product. Pricing is voodoo I don't understand. But I do understand they charge what they can.

I understand the pessimism, but I can't agree with a couple of your base assumptions here. Solar panel prices have fallen some 75% in the last 20 years from $8+/Watt capacity to $2/Watt or less. That is a MASSIVE decrease in cost, especially when you consider that this does not even account for inflation. At the same time, oil is getting more and more expensive to produce. Collecting from a land-based gusher (something that doesn't really exist in the US anymore) is a whole lot cheaper than running a pipe through 5 miles of seawater before you even start drilling (a la Deepwater Horizon) or shooting huge volumes of boiling water into the earth just to render the gummy "oil" trapped in shale and tar sands collectible. EROEI (Energy Returned On Energy Invested) has been steadily falling with oil for many years now. Hence, the price increases. That's before we consider the geopolitical angle, which has huge costs of it's own, though they are largely divorced from the pump price. Even so, the price of oil (coupled with that precious commodity, common sense) is what is incentivizing the drive to reduce cell costs. If EV's didn't have a higher up-front price tag, a lot more of them would be selling. I don't know anyone in the industry that does not see this as key to the success of the EV.

 

[John in CR]

wb9k,

While you have their ear $250 or less per kwh retail fob Livonia. The machines should have been running at 100% capacity 24 hours a day for years by now, so that kind of price could be profitable.

On my wish list is small change in the chemical mix that boosts nominal voltage from 3.3V to 4.5V or higher. WTH, let's make it a nice round 5V nominal.

 

[wb9k]

wb9k,

While you have their ear $250 or less per kwh retail fob Livonia. The machines should have been running at 100% capacity 24 hours a day for years by now, so that kind of price could be profitable.

On my wish list is small change in the chemical mix that boosts nominal voltage from 3.3V to 4.5V or higher. WTH, let's make it a nice round 5V nominal.

Hi John,

Livonia has never, ever, run anywhere near 100% capacity. The capacity here is quite large.

A voltage change would take more than a small change in chemical mix; cell voltage is set by the basic chemistry. I'm pretty sure LFP limits you to 3.3V nominal, no matter how you tweak the rest of the chemistry. Same rule applies to all types of cells, I believe. If the voltage has changed, so has your fundamental chemistry, or "battery type" if you will. Having said that, you will see the company more and more using other chemistries in certain applications. NMC and LTO chemistries are in the works already.

 

[dnmun]

oil is not cheap to produce. not sure where someone got that idea. much of the Bakken is uneconomic to drill at the $75-80/bbl level and it is where we WERE expecting to become energy independent.

oil needs to climb to $150-200/bbl to reduce consumption rapidly and to preserve the remaining oil for future generations.

we should be paying $10-15/gallon for gas moving towards $20, to make people change their habit of driving anywhere anytime in their cars or trucks. it has to stop and should have already been scaled back but in 2000 george bush was able to fix the election with his supreme court to cover the theft of the presidential election. otherwise gore would have already put us on a path to energy consumption reduction in a meaningful way. gore would have acted to prevent osama bin laden from attacking us too and then we would not have wasted all those lives and trillions and trillions of dollars and made us hated by the rest of the world for our hated military interventions.

solar power, either passive or active for hot water and heating and PV panels are all feasible investments now for most insolation regimes in the southern portions of the US when the total life span of the equipment is amortized since it can last for 50 years.

batteries have never been cheaper. down 80% in the 5 years i have been watching them. what used to cost $4/Wh is now $1/Wh.

 

[arkmundi]

Which is why so many of us in the climate protection movement have consistently called for an end to ALL subsidies for the oil & gas industry, which are substantial. And so that the commodity might find its natural, but much higher price point, and therefore accelerate the advancement of the green energy sector.

 

[liveforphysics]

I wouldn't expect big improvements from Iron Phosphate anytime soon. The industry has moved forward to things with better performance in all aspects, and as was mentioned in this thread, Iron Phosphate never delivered on it's original promise of low cost input materials.

There was a period of time where it made sense and A123 cells were perhaps the best EV battery choice in the world. Now even the GM Spark dumped A123 cells for LG chem, and I think it was the last volume OEM using them.

During the period of time A123 cells made sense to use, they focused efforts instead on hemorrhaging cash into fueling the evils of patent related BS. What a great (obvious sarcasm) use of money and time, and of course now all for nothing anyways.

 

[wb9k]

I wouldn't expect big improvements from Iron Phosphate anytime soon. The industry has moved forward to things with better performance in all aspects, and as was mentioned in this thread, Iron Phosphate never delivered on it's original promise of low cost input materials.

There was a period of time where it made sense and A123 cells were perhaps the best EV battery choice in the world. Now even the GM Spark dumped A123 cells for LG chem, and I think it was the last volume OEM using them.

During the period of time A123 cells made sense to use, they focused efforts instead on hemorrhaging cash into fueling the evils of patent related BS. What a great (obvious sarcasm) use of money and time, and of course now all for nothing anyways.

Not so fast there...we ain't dead yet.

LFP makes lots of sense in the starter battery world. Passenger cars are (for the most part, but not entirely) going a different way, but the big industrial hybrid sector is still dominated by A123 today.

GM did insource the building of the Spark pack with LG cells, but not because they perform better. Probably had more to do with getting to economies of scale with the cell they were already using in the Volt. This, and I think they decided they were done picking A123's brain, so they kicked us to the curb, like they have done with so many others over the years. They've made some pretty outlandish claims in the process, like that they have replaced a 21 kW battery with a 19 kW battery and experienced no change in performance. Utter nonsense.

 

[jasontaylor]

...as was mentioned in this thread, Iron Phosphate never delivered on it's original promise of low cost input materials.

liveforphysics, I am confused by this. What LiFePO4 input material is not low cost and which post in this thread exactly are you referring to?

Jason

 

[liveforphysics]

I wouldn't expect big improvements from Iron Phosphate anytime soon. The industry has moved forward to things with better performance in all aspects, and as was mentioned in this thread, Iron Phosphate never delivered on it's original promise of low cost input materials.

There was a period of time where it made sense and A123 cells were perhaps the best EV battery choice in the world. Now even the GM Spark dumped A123 cells for LG chem, and I think it was the last volume OEM using them.

During the period of time A123 cells made sense to use, they focused efforts instead on hemorrhaging cash into fueling the evils of patent related BS. What a great (obvious sarcasm) use of money and time, and of course now all for nothing anyways.

Not so fast there...we ain't dead yet.

LFP makes lots of sense in the starter battery world.

Ahh, but what vehicle do I want that uses a 'starter'? None. What vehicle do I want that uses a hybrid pack? None.

EV's have already reached critical mass here in the Bay Area, people view technologies that spray carcinogens in peoples faces as old tech they are done supporting. I realize that the awareness has not reached all places yet, but in my home area where I'm weaving between rows of Model S and Nisan Leaf etc at every traffic light on my roadbike, I can tell you the future has simplified beyond technologies that require 'starting' to work or idle-stop functions etc.

GM did insource the building of the Spark pack with LG cells, but not because they perform better. Probably had more to do with getting to economies of scale with the cell they were already using in the Volt. This, and I think they decided they were done picking A123's brain, so they kicked us to the curb, like they have done with so many others over the years. They've made some pretty outlandish claims in the process, like that they have replaced a 21 kW battery with a 19 kW battery and experienced no change in performance. Utter nonsense.

My wild hunch is it has something to do with LG having a path forward for desirable EV cell energy density and consistent reliable product quality. I'm with you on the pack capacity though, I would rather have the 21kWh pack than the 19kWh pack as well. Hopefully the 19kWh will soon be ~25kWh-ish or something when LG finally rolls some more modern chemistry into production.

...as was mentioned in this thread, Iron Phosphate never delivered on it's original promise of low cost input materials.

liveforphysics, I am confused by this. What LiFePO4 input material is not low cost and which post in this thread exactly are you referring to?

Jason

With no $$ Cobalt in the cathode mixture, in theory it should have been substantially cheaper than NMC or NCA to buy the materials. In practice, for reasons I don't understand, the cathode materials always ended up costing about the same as those featuring exotic expensive metals.

My dream battery uses no exotic metals (like LiFePO4), cycles to last beyond life-of-vehicle (like LiFePO4 can in a well designed pack), has inherent intrinsic safety, can support >4C charge, and has at least >400Wh/Kg specific energy. That isn't a pipe-dream, it's inevitable, and it will empower the rapid conclusion of this foolish infernal-combustion age we currently find ourselves.

 

[jasontaylor]

liveforphysics, so it wasn't in this thread already after all. Even so, let's see if you are right; what are current prices are for the LiFePO4 cathode powder?

http://www.aliexpress.com/item/LiFe...battery-cathode-raw-materials/1666230199.html :

LiFePO4/LFP powder for lfp battery cathode raw materials
Price:
US $100.00 / Kilogram

Shipping:
US $29.62to
United States via HongKong Post Air Parcel
Delivery: 15-26 days (ships out within 10 days)

Quantity:
Kilogram

Total Price:
US $129.62
(!!!!)
Ridiculous. So you seem to be correct. However, the prices on alibaba.com (e.g., http://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/LiFePO4-black-powder-for-lithium-electric_749842823.html ) seem to be $10/kg (in bulk), 10x lower! If I get a chance I will email these sellers to ask what their gross margins are and post their replies, if permission is granted to do so. If anyone can beat me to it thanks.

 

[arkmundi]

My dream battery uses no exotic metals (like LiFePO4), cycles to last beyond life-of-vehicle (like LiFePO4 can in a well designed pack), has inherent intrinsic safety, can support >4C charge, and has at least >400Wh/Kg specific energy. That isn't a pipe-dream, it's inevitable, and it will empower the rapid conclusion of this foolish infernal-combustion age we currently find ourselves.

I with ya on the emergence of new lithium powered era. And my "dream battery" is at the point of purchase the best available, and since I recently completed building a new battery pack, it was A123 26650 cylindrical. I'm quite happy with expected lifetime >2000 cycles, inherent intrinsic safety, 4C charge to 3.6V CC in 12 min, and power density.

I'm open to manufacturing improvements from A123, LG, Samsung, Panasonic or any other for my next. Best!

 

[liveforphysics]

My dream battery uses no exotic metals (like LiFePO4), cycles to last beyond life-of-vehicle (like LiFePO4 can in a well designed pack), has inherent intrinsic safety, can support >4C charge, and has at least >400Wh/Kg specific energy. That isn't a pipe-dream, it's inevitable, and it will empower the rapid conclusion of this foolish infernal-combustion age we currently find ourselves.

I with ya on the emergence of new lithium powered era. And my "dream battery" is at the point of purchase the best available, and since I recently completed building a new battery pack, it was A123 26650 cylindrical. I'm quite happy with expected lifetime >2000 cycles, inherent intrinsic safety, 4C charge to 3.6V CC in 12 min, and power density.

I'm open to manufacturing improvements from A123, LG, Samsung, Panasonic or any other for my next. Best!

Make the energy density triple on that cell and it would be there. 8) It's going to happen, and soon. Your guess is as good as mine who will make the next breakthrough, but it's definitely on it's way and soon. I know this, because it's possible to do (many technologies already hold the energy and only have stability issues or electrolyte issues), and so many smart folk's time is being dedicated towards solving the issues that someone is certainly going to discover the trick.

liveforphysics, so it wasn't in this thread already after all. Even so, let's see if you are right; what are current prices are for the LiFePO4 cathode powder?

http://www.aliexpress.com/item/LiFe...battery-cathode-raw-materials/1666230199.html :

LiFePO4/LFP powder for lfp battery cathode raw materials
Price:
US $100.00 / Kilogram

Shipping:
US $29.62to
United States via HongKong Post Air Parcel
Delivery: 15-26 days (ships out within 10 days)

Quantity:
Kilogram

Total Price:
US $129.62
(!!!!)
Ridiculous. So you seem to be correct. However, the prices on alibaba.com (e.g., http://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/LiFePO4-black-powder-for-lithium-electric_749842823.html ) seem to be $10/kg (in bulk), 10x lower! If I get a chance I will email these sellers to ask what their gross margins are and post their replies, if permission is granted to do so. If anyone can beat me to it thanks.

Just like 18650's that don't pass QC and become re-shrink wrapped as "ultrafire" and dozens of other brands, defective/rejected slurry materials also get sold for below cost to manufacture through various back-door China channels. If you're going to make batteries that need to work well and long-term, you simply both require ultra high purity and ultra-precise particle size powders. The prices you see for a sack of who-knows-what-rejected-powder on Alibaba are not indicative of usable-quality materials pricing.

 

[dnmun]

Which is why so many of us in the climate protection movement have consistently called for an end to ALL subsidies for the oil & gas industry, which are substantial. And so that the commodity might find its natural, but much higher price point, and therefore accelerate the advancement of the green energy sector.

why do you think you have to isolate and attack the people who produce the oil and gas you consume? i don't get how narrow minded some people are about reality which is that the oil companies get no better tax breaks than apple or google. almost like the redneck refusal to acknowledge that the climate getting hotter is related to the CO2 in the atmosphere.

it will take political will on the part of the guvment to force the society to change. instead of fining the oil companies for doing what they do normally, the population should be allowed to decide who gets to use the gas and fuel that is left when we cut back by setting up a rationing system and let those who can conserve and get by with little oil consumption sell their ration to the gas hog guzzler.

then charge $15/gallon and take the tax and use it to develop more nuclear and wind sources of electricity so we can begin the conversion to an EV based transport system. it is gonna get to that price in another 15 -20 years so it would be best to do it now and get started on the new world.

that is the decision the chinese guvment has made and are sponsoring all forms of EV transport and building about 34 new nuclear plants to provide power. they just signed a deal for natural gas from yakhutia over the next 30 years so they are gonna be able to make big dent in their coal consumption.

 

[jasontaylor]

"why do you think you have to isolate and attack the people who produce the oil and gas you consume? "

Well put. I don't know why he wrote that either. What a nut job. But perhaps he was thinking about fracking, global warming, lung cancer, smog, clear water, enron, deepwater horizon, who killed the electric car, etc.? What, you never heard of those words? Try justfuckinggoogleit.com ever?

 

[Dauntless]

Which is why so many of us in the climate protection movement have consistently called for an end to ALL subsidies for the oil & gas industry, which are substantial.

Name one. For it to count, it cannot be a part of our normal tax law, such as depreciation or development writeoffs any business gets. 'The Repeal Big Oil Tax Subsidies Act' is all rhetoric, but that kind thrives on it. Something like ' Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program' is not a subsidy of the industry, so name something other than that, something that IS a subsidy for real. (Insert cricket sound effects.)

much of the Bakken is uneconomic to drill at the $75-80/bbl level and it is where we WERE expecting to become energy independent.

Has the Bakken reached 1 million barrels a day yet? The costs were exploration, not production. https://marketrealist.com/2013/12/operators-seeing-declining-well-costs-bakken/

https://marketrealist.com/2013/12/takeaway-capacity-bakken-can-affect-earnings/

 

[arkmundi]

Which is why so many of us in the climate protection movement have consistently called for an end to ALL subsidies for the oil & gas industry, which are substantial.

Name one..../

The Iraq war for a price tag of going on 3 trillion dollars, when you include veterans affairs. I don't know what world you guys come from but its certainly not mine. And pleaaasssseeee don't tell me that war wasn't for the oil. The entire modern military-industrial complex has grown to secure access to and tanker shipping of oil & gas production around the world. Frell & frack all that crap jack!