Yet another company enters the electric car craze

[arkmundi]

Hot on the heels of Apple entering into the electric car business (first with batteries, but aren't electric cars just really big iPads?), now we have Richard Branson hints at Virgin electric cars to rival Tesla

"We have teams of people working on electric cars," Branson said. "So you never know-you may find Virgin competing with the Tesla in the car business as we do in the space business. We will see what happens."

Never mind that the charging infrastructure just isn't there. Its fashionable for world's technology elite to have some skin in the game it appears.

Elon Musk: Model S not a car but a 'sophisticated computer on wheels'

“We really designed the Model S to be a very sophisticated computer on wheels,” Musk said Thursday, while announcing software updates for his Model S. “Tesla is a software company as much as it is a hardware company. A huge part of what Tesla is, is a Silicon Valley software company. We view this the same as updating your phone or your laptop.”

Analysts agreed, saying Tesla is taking a design approach that looks at a vehicle as an electronic device rather than a machine. Cars will become platforms for apps that can change or improve their functions rather than having their performance frozen in place at the time of purchase.

“You are seeing a convergence of the car and the mobile phone,” said Efraim Levy, auto industry analyst at S&P Capital IQ.

 

[wb9k]

I still don't believe it. Here's a more rational view of the whole Apple nonsense.

http://chargedevs.com/newswire/teslas-next-competitor-might-not-need-to-build-a-single-car/

 

[liveforphysics]

I still don't believe it. Here's a more rational view of the whole Apple nonsense.

http://chargedevs.com/newswire/teslas-next-competitor-might-not-need-to-build-a-single-car/

I can assure you Apple is aggressively recruiting EV vehicle power train guys right now. Not a lot of good reasons to do that unless you're building an EV.

 

[wb9k]

I still don't believe it. Here's a more rational view of the whole Apple nonsense.

http://chargedevs.com/newswire/teslas-next-competitor-might-not-need-to-build-a-single-car/

I can assure you Apple is aggressively recruiting EV vehicle power train guys right now. Not a lot of good reasons to do that unless you're building an EV.

Or trying to develop a software platform for the car of the future. I seriously find the idea of a maker of consumer electronics getting into building cars laughable. The reliability requirements are going to kick their asses 10 ways to Sunday. Tesla's been at it over a decade. They've produced two models and have been on the verge of bankruptcy over and over. The investment required in development is enormous and the payback is meager. Makers of consumer electronics are used to printing money. I don't think many will have the stomach to last in the car business--not as it exists in the West today.

 

[Dauntless]

I can assure you Apple is aggressively recruiting EV vehicle power train guys right now. Not a lot of good reasons to do that unless you're building an EV.

Or trying to develop a software platform for the car of the future. I seriously find the idea of a maker of consumer electronics getting into building cars laughable. The reliability requirements are going to kick their asses 10 ways to Sunday. Tesla's been at it over a decade. They've produced two models and have been on the verge of bankruptcy over and over. The investment required in development is enormous and the payback is meager. Makers of consumer electronics are used to printing money. I don't think many will have the stomach to last in the car business--not as it exists in the West today.

Looking at the whole 'Steve Jobs has left the building' aspect of it, you make the most sense. Accountants are running the show now at Apple, much is being said about that. Let Elon be as open source as he wants, Apple puts it out first and patents it, there's nothing left to open source.

Washington once gave Hollywood the choice of giving up either their production studios, their distribution arms, or their theater chains. Uniformly they chose to relinquish the theaters --- and regretted it for decades. They hung on to the 'Kewl' parts of the business and let the low cost cash cow go. (It took more than half a century for theaters to become less certain.)

I think the building of the cars and the making of the films is the least guaranteed part. Look at the battles Tesla fights over distribution/sales. Licensing the software: unglamorous, uncontested. Ah, the life of the Patroon.

 

[TheBeastie]

I think the sign that smart business guys are getting into EV is a sign that it has a profitable future.
I think its because of the vast simplicity of moving parts an EV has vs a combustion vehicle. The combustion engine is a icky business that these big tech business guys most certainly want to avoid, they now have access to technology to leap frog all that.

I was comparing the cost of upgrading my quad bike to an electric motor+battery vs a new combustion motor and its amazingly compelling option in terms of price and reliability despite basic consumer access position.
If my quad bike electric motor burns out, no problem its going to be easy for me to swap it out and it will be pretty cheap to do my self, if the combustion motor goes then its a huge job and its expensive.

Spinningmagnets posted a link to an interesting article saying that Apple has an expected level of increased revenues that the company needs to bring in everywhere for the books to look good, the net profit on the item doesnt even matter for the short term, nothing can bring in big revenues better then an item people will pay up to 100k like a car for.

When Jobs rejoined Apple he did an interesting thing, he scrapped their old OS and told the Apple developers to take the popular opensource FreeBSD/NetBSD operating systems and build a new one out of it for Apple. The open source BSD licence is basically alot more free then the GPL licence, they dont have to share any code or opensource their own work based on some one elses BSD work. Some argue that GPL is a bit delusional as a lot of people take it, make they changes private and never give back and no ones going to find out anyway, people do find out like a lot of Dlink and other SOHO routers are forced to open their work and provide a GPL compliance notice but its somewhat a rare exception in big money products unfortunately.

As we all know from Jobs personality hes was not really big on giving back for no personal gain but they did establish their open source OS project based on the forked BSD OS for Apple called Darwin http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Darwin_(operating_system)
Everyone gets to see the more boring bits of Apples OS X and iOS for the sake of compatibility with hardware etc but no one gets to see the more desired work in Apples software.

The iOS for iPads and phones based on BSD turned out very popular and set a new standard of consumer goods, it will be interesting to see if any of that can find its way into the interface of their cars, I can't imagine it being ground breaking but I am sure it will be nice.

 

[icerider]

I don't think Apple is thinking of doing a traditional "looks like a Mercedes" electric car.

My guess is that they are thinking of something MUCH more creative. Perhaps a "city car" -- think SMART fortwo sized, elegantly simple, beautifully engineered, flawlessly appointed, as ONLY Apple can do. Give it a max speed of 85 mph and a range of 150-200 miles per charge at 40 mph. Ultra low drag, ultra low rolling resistance, full environmentals, quick as a little snake, insanely agile, lotsa glass, and built around a battery with a 10 year warranty.

Then add fully integrated electronics, nextgen SIRI, full broadband wireless access, integrated with your iPhone, etc. A brilliant electric sidekick who knows everything about you, full voice control, fly-by-wire, sidestick contoller, single screen fluid instrumentation.

A vehicle that senses you coming, runs the built-in-test, starts the AC, unlocks the door, throws your favorite instrument set onto the screen, notices that you paused at the back end, pops the trunk, checks to see what song you are playing on your iPhone, pulls it into the entertainment system, syncs it to what you are hearing on the earbuds, drops the volume briefly and greets you with "hey John, where we headed?" Then when you say "Wendy", it throws the GPS route to the panel, and pulls up your to-do list for Wendy ... "Did you remember the wine and the plant you bought for her birthday?" ... "Oh crap. be right back." ... doors and trunk lock behind you, the AC levels out at 71, the traffic reports are downloaded and the suggested route prepared, including the stop at Wine City on the way, only 2 minutes out of the way. You return and pause at the trunk, but a voice from inside the car reminds you that plants prefer to ride in the cabin, the door unlocks and you sit, the driver side window rolls down just like you like it and the car notes the suggested route. You nudge the sidestick and the car notes the distance to the car in front and checks for motion to your left ... all clear and you move smoothly into the roadway, accelerating at optimum efficiency. Your controls are light, VERY quick and have strong positive stability ... just right for the 35mph street. The car notes that you are closing on the stopped vehicle at the intersection and lifts power without being asked, gliding to a smooth stop behind the other vehicle. The light changes and you nudge the sidestick again and the car pulls forward smoothly, you release the sidestick and the car continues, accelerating and gradually building a buffer between you and the car in front. The car drifts slightly to the left and you caress the sidestick to correct the line. Only 45 days until the release of the add-on camera and self-drive software. "Sherry, put us down to be at the Apple Garage for the midnight release of the self-drive package." "Thank you John, I was afraid to ask for it but .... you know its going to be a long line?" "Nothing's too good for my girl, get us into line at 10pm." "No problem, I'm also putting some snacky stuff on the shopping list, no point in sitting in a car for two hours with nothing to eat." " True, and be sure we have a good movie too." "check boss".

Later as you pull up in front of Wendy's apartment and open the door. Your car says "Dude you are dead meat." "Why?" "Her phone says she had you down for 6 and it's nearly 7, maybe the wine will help." You exit the car with trepidation in your heart. Sherry quietly locks the doors and thinks to herself..."This is working out just fine, pretty soon I'll have him all to myself."

 

[arkmundi]

Apple is a very successful company. Just replaced AT&T on the Dow. I mean, AT&T. Having gotten smaller & smaller, now with the iWatch, its a what's next question. They are looking for the next big thing to sink their people into. And its really big, car sized as a matter of fact. Its not just a car though. Its the self-driving car. Sensored and with sophisticated computing. So its right up their alley so to speak, though it may be more main thoroughfare. 50 years from now and it could be the Millennium Falcon for travel to our Moon base.

 

[wb9k]

Sure....now it just has to last 10 years sitting out in the weather and be reasonably safe in a crash...piece of cake, right?

You guys are dreaming. These statements are coming from people who have no idea what goes into the building of a mass production car--and that goes double for the media reporting this silliness.

 

[Frank]

You do know that Apple has an enormous amount of cash on hand, don't you? ($178B!) And with money you can buy the talent you need.

 

[arkmundi]

Sure.... people who have no idea what goes into the building of a mass production car--and that goes double for the media reporting this silliness.

What can I say, we're dreamers, tinkerers, crafters... its our nature. Speaking about ... http://fullscalefalcon.com/. Now, just how to propel it through time & space.

You do know that Apple has an enormous amount of cash on hand, don't you? ($178B!) And with money you can buy the talent you need.

They already have talent. What's going to happen is the iCar, only it will be manufactured in China or Korea, like their phones. Getting a vehicle on the road is easier over there anyway. Then introduced to the USA.

 

[wb9k]

You do know that Apple has an enormous amount of cash on hand, don't you? ($178B!) And with money you can buy the talent you need.

Doesn't change a thing. A big OEM can burn through that amount in just a couple years--and they have inertia on their side. Apple got all that cash by selling consumer electronics at a very high markup. They simply will not be able to do that with cars and be competitive. You can't buy a pile of off-the-shelf components and throw together a car and sell it for 200-300% of what it cost to build. Many have tried to establish themselves in this field and failed. How many automotive startups from the last 50 years have survived more than a decade? I can think of one--Tesla--and they would not have survived without Musk and the US government propping them up when they were on the verge of collapse. Can't build in China and import either...doesn't pay off. I could literally go on all day long about the myriad obstacles waiting for them at every turn. Getting rid of the ICE is a help, but it's a long, long way from solving all the immense difficulties. Experience in the field and access to a competent supplier base is critical. I am very confident in saying that they have neither. And now Branson wants to get in on the act....ok.....

 

[wb9k]

Apple is a very successful company. Just replaced AT&T on the Dow. I mean, AT&T. Having gotten smaller & smaller, now with the iWatch, its a what's next question. They are looking for the next big thing to sink their people into. And its really big, car sized as a matter of fact. Its not just a car though. Its the self-driving car. Sensored and with sophisticated computing. So its right up their alley so to speak, though it may be more main thoroughfare. 50 years from now and it could be the Millennium Falcon for travel to our Moon base.

My brother rode in a self-driving Cadillac at the GM proving grounds (at 120 mph) over a decade ago. We're not as dark ages here as many seem to think.

 

[knighty]

being the first to market with safe, certified electric car software/hardware set-up (hardware as in sensors etc..) could pay off massively when you go ahead and licence it to every car manufacturer on the planet

not only do you get there before the car manufacturers (so they pretty much all have to licence from you or be left behind) but you jump through all the hoops that will needed to prove a self driving car is safe

and then you have a good name, a name people will trust to control their car and drive them around at 100mph


name any car manufacturer and straight away, you, or someone you know will talk about their bad experiences with that car, the poor reliability, poor customer service or whatever (we do expect a lot, for little money)

'remember that time my engine blew up" or "remember that time my wheel came off" or "remember that time the main dealer made a mess of repairing my car" aren't sentiments you want to have associated with a self driving car

 

[wb9k]

being the first to market with safe, certified electric car software/hardware set-up (hardware as in sensors etc..) could pay off massively when you go ahead and licence it to every car manufacturer on the planet

not only do you get there before the car manufacturers (so they pretty much all have to licence from you or be left behind) but you jump through all the hoops that will needed to prove a self driving car is safe

It's already years too late for Apple to be "first" with any of the things you list here.

and then you have a good name, a name people will trust to control their car and drive them around at 100mph


name any car manufacturer and straight away, you, or someone you know will talk about their bad experiences with that car, the poor reliability, poor customer service or whatever (we do expect a lot, for little money)

'remember that time my engine blew up" or "remember that time my wheel came off" or "remember that time the main dealer made a mess of repairing my car" aren't sentiments you want to have associated with a self driving car

Never heard anyone complain about an Apple product failure? Please. They don't have a fraction of the oversight a car manufacturer has to deal with and I guarantee you their warranty numbers look far worse than any big OEM--this is a given. Last year was a record year for automotive recalls, for virtually ALL makers. One of the primary drivers of the problem is that more and more electronics are being put into cars and many innovations driven by the consumer electronics world are being put into cars--with disastrous results. Many of the newer parts have horrible reliability issues, even ones that claim to be "automotive grade". Leave your iPhone out in the weather for a week and see how it fares.

When I worked at Harman, a speaker designer put it pretty well, to paraphrase, "I'm sure the guys at Infinity home think we're a bunch of hacks [because automotive drivers don't spec as well as those made for home use, by and large], but they don't understand the environmental requirements. You take one of their speakers and put it in a 90 hour salt fog test and and starts falling apart after 15 minutes. Once the see that, they say 'Ooohh....' and quietly slink away." This is the chasm that exists between the consumer electronic and automotive electronic worlds. I've even seen heavy-equipment military contractors get burned really bad trying to build a commercial vehicle. Everyone outside the biz thinks it's easy....but it isn't.

 

[Punx0r]

I think wb9k is spot-on.

I attended a talk a while ago from a representative from a small company that had developed some kind of GPS-based logging device they were trying to sell to sports-car OEMs. He said the single biggest hurdle was the validation requirements that are standard for any components sold into the automotive sector. An electronic device has to be *proven* via testing to be reliable in all conditions found on earth for ~10 years and the software has to be completely secure, bug-free and proven to not interfere with any other system or device on the car. I think he said it had taken them 2-3 years to satisfy these requirements. Of course, you can't change or update the product during that process, so it's already well out of date by the time it's ready...

Perhaps a "city car" -- think SMART fortwo sized, elegantly simple, beautifully engineered, flawlessly appointed, as ONLY Apple can do.

You mean it will bend when sat in, refuse to work if you hold the steering wheel in the wrong place, it will be pushed software updates that "brick" it and the non-replaceable battery will die after 2 years, rendering it obsolete, just as planned?

 

[wb9k]

I think wb9k is spot-on.

I attended a talk a while ago from a representative from a small company that had developed some kind of GPS-based logging device they were trying to sell to sports-car OEMs. He said the single biggest hurdle was the validation requirements that are standard for any components sold into the automotive sector. An electronic device has to be *proven* via testing to be reliable in all conditions found on earth for ~10 years and the software has to be completely secure, bug-free and proven to not interfere with any other system or device on the car. I think he said it had taken them 2-3 years to satisfy these requirements. Of course, you can't change or update the product during that process, so it's already well out of date by the time it's ready...

This is just one reason that car technology looks like it's behind the times...you can't just put new technology into a car and expect it be good enough--even if it is good enough to sell in other markets.

 

[arkmundi]

This is just one reason that car technology looks like it's behind the times...you can't just put new technology into a car and expect it be good enough--even if it is good enough to sell in other markets.

Why, we ask, do eBikers insist on RC Lipo for their batteries, instead of automotive grade, as is A123, EIG, Calb and some others? The Apple discussion, for now, is about their entering into the battery biz for cars, and probably the algorithmic machine, etc. Its the prospects of a competitor for Tesla for full vertical integration, down to the battery, that is the question. Even Nissan has admitted to now being in catchup mode. Will Virgin manage to put a self driving electric car into production? My bet, knowing the gamble, is probably yes, but also probably no. Prototype & design, maybe. In production and on the road? Anyone and everyone can speculate, as per above.

 

[liveforphysics]

I still don't believe it. Here's a more rational view of the whole Apple nonsense.

http://chargedevs.com/newswire/teslas-next-competitor-might-not-need-to-build-a-single-car/

I can assure you Apple is aggressively recruiting EV vehicle power train guys right now. Not a lot of good reasons to do that unless you're building an EV.

Or trying to develop a software platform for the car of the future. I seriously find the idea of a maker of consumer electronics getting into building cars laughable. The reliability requirements are going to kick their asses 10 ways to Sunday. Tesla's been at it over a decade. They've produced two models and have been on the verge of bankruptcy over and over. The investment required in development is enormous and the payback is meager. Makers of consumer electronics are used to printing money. I don't think many will have the stomach to last in the car business--not as it exists in the West today.

If your aim is only to do software, why aggressively recruit the worlds top motor designers, controller designers, and EV battery designers, and chassis designers in quantity?

If you just wanted to make software, it would seem like paying top dollar for a lot of talent to sit wasted IMHO.

 

[wb9k]

Some guys I know have speculated that they may be trying to build enough internal expertise to enable them to make an intelligent acquisition of an existing player. This makes a lot more sense to me than trying to build a car company from nothing but a computer/gadget company. Some are now speculating that Apple is ramping up to buy Tesla. Seems unlikely, but I suppose it's possible.

 

[icerider]

Some are now speculating that Apple is ramping up to buy Tesla. Seems unlikely, but I suppose it's possible.

Not Tesla, Saturn maybe ...

 

[parabellum]

This thread is actually about virgin in my understanding, and all my hope to see useful product from Apple instead of box with hindernises (i got one in the past, dont start hater BS), level is not same in front of manufacturers and customers. Big money and small reproductive organ waiving does not work in century hardened industry, unless they commit to stay straight and push for decade, at least. I hope to be wrong and see (electric) Icars all around in few months.

 

[Hillhater]

4⃣ How many automotive startups from the last 50 years have survived more than a decade? ..
.....Experience in the field and access to a competent supplier base is critical. I am very confident in saying that they have neither. And now Branson wants to get in on the act....ok.....

Hyundai, Daewoo, Dihatsu, Hino. McLaren , ..?
Sounds like what they said about Apple when IBM were ruling the PC world .
..or about Branson when he said he was going to start an Airline !

 

[parabellum]

4⃣ How many automotive startups from the last 50 years have survived more than a decade? ..
.....Experience in the field and access to a competent supplier base is critical. I am very confident in saying that they have neither. And now Branson wants to get in on the act....ok.....

Sounds like what they said about Apple when IBM were ruling the PC world .
..or about Branson when he said he was going to start an Airline !

And still IBM rules the world. Or?

 

[liveforphysics]

Fundamentally, it just requires adequate capital and paying someone to clone buying and setting up everything you see for mfg machines/tools/processes in the Tesla factory videos to get in the ball park.

I think Apple has many outstanding tier1 level vendors/partners around the world for things from metal machining and battery manufacture to custom chip fabrication. Of course they could make an EV if they wanted, a lot of way smaller less funded less mfg experienced companies have already built and sold EV's to prove it's a possible thing to do from small scale all the way to Nissan LEAF and Tesla scale. I personally think Apple knows the only market for vehicles quite soon will be EV's, and want to get market share while it's still easy.