I've been a big crypto nerd for a while now, so I will just break down what I know to be factual information and let you draw your own conclusions.
The first thing most people don't understand about BTC is that it's a proof of work, vs. a proof of stake system. There are lots of vids explaining the difference, so I won't bore you with the details. The takeaway is that proof of work is more costly, but inherently more secure. The dirty secret behind all these higher performing altcoins with lower fees and faster transaction times is that they are based on proof of stake. People who say BTC is inferior aren't seeing the forest for the trees. While it's inferior for, say, buying a pack of gum, nobody needs that level of security for everyday transactions. It's a little bit like how you're okay using a debit card to buy a pack of gum, but would only buy a house with bank wire. BTC is the same way. If you were to buy a house, you would do a straight BTC transfer on chain, and the ten minutes and 15 dollars in fees would be absolutely nothing to you, and would be far faster and far cheaper than current wire transfer networks. Whereas if you're just buying a pack of gum, you would use some kind of BTC derivative, that would be essentially free and instantaneous. These derivatives are off chain, but get settled on chain in massive blocks of millions of dollars, so the transaction fees are spread out. It's still very secure, though, so gone will be the days of someone stealing your debit card.
There has been a lot of debate in the developer community over enhancing BTC at the expense of security, or keeping it simple and making it more of a reserve style asset. So far the latter has always won, which is why BTC is still relatively slow and expensive. But when you look at other highly secure reserve assets, BTC is still way faster, way more secure in every way, and way cheaper. You can move millions overseas in minutes for a small fraction of a percent, whereas that same transaction through the banking system would take days and cost thousands, and ultimately always involve centralized fiat currencies that could hypothetically change radically in relative value, or even collapse altogether, which is a genuine concern when dealing with non G7 central banks. We here in the west who aren't involved in international trade far underestimate the problems caused by third world banking, and the wrench that it throws in international trade. The petrodollar has been instrumental in mitigating that, but the problem will only be ultimately solved by a global currency. That used to be gold, and the dollar has simply been a stop gap measure in the progress from a physical global currency (gold and silver) to a digital one (possibly BTC).
The second critical piece of information to know about BTC currently is that it probably is in a bubble. While I believe its real value is in the millions, it is currently only a speculative asset, much like a startup company. The hope is that someday in the future, BTC will be a significant reserve currency, and ultimately the world reserve currency. That's what it was designed for, and it doesn't have much utility for anything else. So until it achieves that status, it's still only speculative. Some people argue that a central bank digital currency will drive it out of business, and maybe. But it's important to recognize that no CBDC does what BTC does. They're still centralized, still open to national manipulation (intentionally), and would actually be a step backwards to simply repeat the mistakes of the 1970s. So while you could argue that the powers that be might try to kill BTC, it's still erroneous to say that they can just introduce their own centralized version of a blockchain based currency and accomplish the same end. Not even close.
So understanding that it's still highly speculative, what's driving the price so high right now is twofold. One you have the cost of the network. As mining rewards go down as supply increases, the relative cost of mining goes up, and so does the price. It's not unlike how the price to mine new gold relates heavily to the price of gold. No one is going to operate nodes for BTC if they can't turn a profit, and while it's a definite opportunity the miners aren't getting filthy rich. So that's the good news. There IS a good, rational reason why the price keeps going up. It was designed that way, and due to the reward halving, it will continue to go up so long as people continue to see value in it, and invest in it speculatively.
The bad news is that a cancer has entered into the BTC community. The financial system has reached a paradoxical point where inflation is required to maintain the status quo, but also threatens at every turn to bring the whole thing down. This has caused a grid lock in the normal monetary system, where banks can no longer make new money by lending. In place of giving loans to create new money, banks are taking deposits and reserves and dumping them into speculative investments. They buy up speculative tech like Tesla, and also short it in the derivatives market to hedge their bets. If they do that right, it always guarantees a small profit no matter what, barring implosion of the markets.
At the same time, though, these corporations, in place of selling goods and services, are now having to look to cryptocurrencies as a quick way to make a few bucks to keep their stock prices up. That's why we're seeing these crypto pump and dumps being orchestrated by billionaires and hedge funds. It's a last ditch hail mary kind of play to keep their stocks from collapsing, which keeps the banks from collapsing, which keeps the entire economy temporarily afloat. But like housing in the 2000s, and commercial in 2019, they will ride the horse to death. This isn't sustainable.
Because of that, BTC may be headed for a crash, because it's being manipulated by people who are treating it like something disposable to be used up and thrown away when they're done with it. It's always in peril, because these banks, hedge funds, and corporations who hold so much of it, they will sell it like a used up race horse to a glue factory if and when they need a quick buck to avoid financial ruin.
And the retail investor in crypto isn't much different. If for example we have another crash, you better believe Joe BTC is going to sell to make his house payment, buy food, keep the lights on, pay Johnny's tuition, etc. And I mean you can't blame them, it's not like they're really going to have a choice. But the fact remains that you have a lot of people who have all this equity built up in their crypto holdings, and the economy is doing really badly, which means there might come a day soon when those people are going to desperately need that equity to live on, forcing them to cash in.
There are also very real threats of more Mt Gox type moments. There are lots of exchanges and hardware wallets with unknown security, and also BTC derivatives that could leave investors holding worthless stock and no BTC, much like GLD could leave people without any physical gold. These BTC funds are highly leveraged, so if the price of BTC were to go down significantly, and they became insolvent and couldn't pay the interest on that debt, their companies would go under and the lenders would repossess their BTC, potentially leaving stock holders with the bag. Note also that the fed has been buying junk bonds in companies like Microstrategies that are heavily invested in BTC. In other words, these guys have been borrowing money from the fed in the overnight markets and using it to buy more BTC, essentially using the BTC they already bought with investor money as collateral. It's not really any different than if you invested in a company buying real estate, and said company used the real estate bought with your investment as collateral to get a loan to buy more. If real estate were to collapse, the company would be unable to make payments and the properties would be repossessed by the banks, leaving them and you out in the cold.
The exchanges aren't much better. It's widely known that many if not all exchanges don't have the BTC in their possession to back up all the BTC that customers have stored with them. You BTC on an exchange is just a ledger they keep saying you get x amount of BTC, so they only have to keep on hand what they anticipate people will withdraw. This leads to uh oh moments where people try to withdraw and can't. That's happened with the largest and most well respected exchanges at times. They will play games where they lock accounts and impose unnecessary holding periods. Let's say BTC were to crash and everyone were to sell. The exchange may only have 10% of that on hand, meaning they won't be able to raise the money to pay out all of the accounts. So you might sell and have $20k sitting in the exchange, but might not be able to withdraw it. And if the exchange goes under, you might never get it.
Another threat is the unknown security of many hardware wallets. Since most aren't open source, it's hard to guess whether they can be hacked or not. But the temptation would be very high for someone at a high level in those companies, like a top level programmer, to write themselves a back door. If you're not generating your seeds offline through some kind of entropic method like throwing dice, and proving the firmware independently, you're always trusting the benevolence of the company itself and its programmers. As well as their security. You're trusting they didn't get hacked, that they didn't get punked by a contractor, etc. This being the case, I think the potential if not even the likelihood is there that there will be a mass hack of hardware wallets. Since they're considered iron clad, that will be a major blow to people if it ever happens. Even if it's not a well respected one like Ledger, just the words hardware wallet and hack in a headline will be devastating.
Now all of this is building the potential for something really interesting to happen. If there's a crash, the central banks are going to inherit lots of BTC, in the same manner that they've inherited so many MBSs. People don't realize yet how deep BTC's tentacles have reached into the mainstream financial system. Case in point, BTC now goes down over the weekend, when the stock exchanges are closed, and goes up on Monday. For those who don't know, BTC trades 24/7/365, and normal trading hours didn't used to impact it at all. But now so much of the trading volume is from these derivatives that it's actually tanking on the weekends, because it loses that volume while the stock exchange is closed. What that means is that massive amounts of BTC are now held by banks, hedge funds, and publicly traded companies. Which means all that BTC is subject to being sold in the overnight markets in exchange for bailouts.
While that's going on, a crash guarantees that the government will print tons of money to guarantee entitlement programs. This will undoubtedly lead to high inflation, in the medium range outlook. So while the immediate deflation of the market crash would see asset prices deflate badly, that would set the conditions for high inflation because of socialist policies that it would trigger. So when prices start to rise, and people are getting stimulus checks on a recurring basis, they will be looking for something to protect their money. Well, we've seen this in the past in third world countries in Africa and South America, and cryptocurrency has always proven to be a reliable place to stash government cheese. You have to consider that hard assets like food aren't always available, and there can be and usually is rationing. So if you have the stimulus money to buy a side of beef, but you're only allowed a few pounds of hamburger a week, you're going to need some place to put that money if you think the price of beef is going to go up 10% by the time next week's shipment comes in.
Long story short, that could be to BTC what the paddles are to a cardiac arrest. It could send BTC soaring into the millions or even billions, and the central banks could find themselves suddenly controlling a large percentage of this asset now back from the dead.
Now, something that's always done in high inflation is a revaluing of the fiat currency. It's a technique that central bankers use to change the psychology to slow inflation, and it's a proven performer. All they do is knock some zeros off, and it takes time for the free market to discover new prices, slowing the inflation. Let's say this time around though they throw in a twist. They introduce a central bank digital currency. So what we would have in this hypothetical scenario is a central bank with lots of BTC that's worth lots of money, issuing its own fiat digital currency. De facto, the value of said digital currency would be a function of the value of the assets held by the issuing central bank, relative to how much digital currency they issue.
So, in summary, I see many potential threats to BTC, but I also see a clear path that's just a logical cause and effect chain, that could ultimately lead to BTC becoming exactly what it was designed to be. And if BTC ultimately succeeds, it's going to make the people who have it filthy rich. Because of its violently deflationary nature, once it reaches a critical mass, there's no stopping it. Those who have it will just continue to get richer, and those who don't will continue to get poorer. It's hard to say when it would reach its final destination, but there are 8 billion people in this world who use 200 trillion dollars in currency. If critical mass is achieved, and BTC starts to become the reserve currency for the world, the price could be difficult to even quantify as a dollar value. But people would stop talking about the value of BTC and start talking about the value of a single Satoshi, because that would be closer to the average person's level of comprehension. Actually, the average person wouldn't use it at all. They would be using derivatives of it, like central bank digital currencies, maybe some altcoins, etc. And those who had actual BTC would be able to generate income without touching the principle by staking and borrowing against it.
My best advice at this point is to stay froggy. Never invest more than you're willing to lose, take profits when it feels high, reinvest those profits when it feels low, and PROTECT THOSE PRIVATE KEYS. The easiest surefire way I've found for the average person to hold BTC themselves is to get a Coldcard and generate the seed offline using dice BUT ONLY AFTER PROVING THE FIRMWARE USING A PYTHON SCRIPT. Just automatically assume that the device was intercepted in the mail and uploaded with malicious firmware. And use it 100% airgapped. Never connect it to the internet. So if you need to spend them, wipe that seed and start over with a new one. The minute you break that airgap, just assume it's compromised. For example, I heard about some random SD cards that had malicious firmware designed to compromise hardware wallets.
Lastly, I would say to never cash out frivolously. If you think it's at an all time high and you want to sell half, with the intention of reinvesting at a lower price, go for it. But people are cashing out to buy stupid stuff they don't need like cars. I can't even tell you how many posts I see of people gloating they bought in at five thousand, then cashed out completely at sixty to buy a new F150. And they think they're so damned smart, and they're so smug about how it's digital beanie babies and how dumb everyone else is going to look. You only look dumb if you invested more than you could afford to lose. But if BTC ultimately succeeds, I kid you not, people will literally die of shame when they realize what they gave up because of their own arrogance and greed. Don't be that person. It's easy to laugh it off if you're the guy who lost his keys by accident, or bought a billion dollar pizza during development, but it's not going to be easy for those people who gave up financial freedom for a now ten year old worthless car, because that's going to represent a failure of their very character, and expose a flaw in them that cuts to their very soul. I feel for those people, and I'm far more afraid of being that person than I am being the person who could have sold at sixty and held to zero. I can live with having missed out on a windfall, but it would be far more difficult to live with knowing that you could have achieved financial freedom for you and your friends and family. Especially with what's coming, and the kind of suffering and human misery it will bring with it, and how the wealthy will be spared from much of it. Regardless of what you think about the economy and geopolitics, we are at the end of a very unsustainable and destructive path, and when that day of reckoning comes it's going to be painful when we're forced to return to sustainable ways of living, and there will be no avoiding the fact that many will go without. So if there's a small chance that a very conservative investment in BTC could spare someone some suffering down the road, I think that's a chance worth taking. Not saying to invest the family fortune, or go hungry, but if it's between buying a new set of golf clubs and buying a little BTC, I'm going with the BTC. The golf clubs will still be there next month when the next paycheck comes around, but the BTC might not be.