la Nina rears her ugly head

Still hot and sunny (109-112F actual) and pretty dry here (mostly <10% humidity, usually around 5-7%).

Predicted temperatures are often a bit lower, but not by much:

Today
Sunny, with a high near 108. Southwest wind around 10 mph.
Tonight
Clear, with a low around 82. West wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable after midnight.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 109. North northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night
Clear, with a low around 84. West wind 5 to 10 mph.
Thursday
Sunny and hot, with a high near 110. Breezy, with a west wind 5 to 15 mph.
Thursday Night
Clear, with a low around 85. West southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light south after midnight.
Friday
Sunny and hot, with a high near 110. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Friday Night
Clear, with a low around 84. Breezy, with a southwest wind 5 to 15 mph.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 109. Breezy, with a southwest wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 84. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 10 to 15 mph decreasing to 5 to 10 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 108. South southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 85. West southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable after midnight.
Monday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 107. Light and variable wind becoming west 5 to 10 mph in the morning.
Click to expand...
 
That pinche high that normally would help bring the monsoon is stuck on top of El Paso. Argggghhh! Go away!

Not 110 here yet, only 108 sunday, and 103 ish the last two days. The heat is on! To make it even better, the wind is blowing hard in the afternoons too. Go out for a few min, and you turn into walking jerky.

Kinda sucks, when desertification comes, and you are already desert. :roll:
 
Stupid high still here smack on top of El Paso. 108 yesterday, not really unusual here for June, but it's July now. by now it should be a cool 101 or so. Bleah :cry:
 
What's better, 95F and 40% humid, or 110F and 5% humid ?
https://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=+Las+Cruces+new+mexico&MR=1
https://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=camp+hill+PA

They give that 'feels like' index (which is generally less 'F' for you guys and more for east coast/south) but uhhh, 'feels' is kinda subjective and I'm not so sure how accurate a comparison it is. Then again, what else is there besides the raw data?

My cousin just came back east from 17 years near Flagstaff. I'll ask him.

Oh yeah, and the thread title's a joke, right? :wink:
 
As far as I'm concerned, the indexes are full of shit. Above 105, it's just really hard to tolerate, by 110, it's a suffer fest. But I don't mean an isolated 110 day, when it's been over 105 for weeks, the earth just heats up and at your feet, it may be 130f. This is how Phoenix always is. We get it here sometimes, even at 4000 feet. But usually only for two weeks, maybe three. This year, 4 weeks of it so far.

I'm not mocking 95f and 40%, because sweating becomes ineffective and it does feel bad, but at least a puff of wind, or movement will cool you then. You aren't becoming walking jerky. 105 simply never feels like 98. I just don't know where they get that one. And we can, and do get 105 and 70% humidity some times, during the monsoon. So we do know what humid feels like. Happily, when it's like that, we get rain and it does cool to 95-98 the next day.

And of course, if you are humid, it can rain. This year, I have logged less than 2 inches of rain, in 7 months. Not quite the Namib, but it's looking pretty harsh out there in the desert again. The El Nino wet pretty much finished by Christmas last year here.
 
Yes, the indexes are just that.
The forecast of 'really hot year' is holding true here also. I always thought dry heat and cold were preferential, unless you're trying to grow a rainforest.

Reading more (like on AW's threads), I just can't imagine. BUT, I look at all locales with possibility of system-free living, and wow the desert (or extreme cold) really adds challenge. Nevertheless, that's pretty extreme heat (110-125F), when brain damage occurs just >105F. The body must really have to work hard to keep cool. I would totally do the vampire thing as much as possible in the summer. 8pm to 8am for being in the elements doing stuff is more natural than relying on AC imo, which I do not. Homes mostly below ground too, for great resistance to heat or cold. . .

I spent some time around las vegas NM and then amarillo TX a few septembers ago. First time there, and I really enjoyed the weather and elevated and open space. I am pretty sure the heat was quite toned down compared to this year and season though.
 
A couple of nights ago we actually got some sprinkles that left puddles around the house edges from roof-runoff, but any dirt was dry even before dawn; it never did more than an occasional droplet on any one spot.

Last couple days it's been very sunny and hot, 112-115F, and was clear last night (got down to 81F by dawn).

Earlier today the NWS forecast said it might rain (10% chance) tonight, but now it just says partly cloudy...and it was still clear out there as of a few minutes ago.

Still shows 10-20% chance within a week or so, but I doubt I'll see any of that here. (still carrying the rain gear on the bike just in case, cuz if it does rain it might really dump on me during my commute to work or home).

Tonight
Partly cloudy, with a low around 89. East northeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Friday
Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 113. East southeast wind around 5 mph becoming west in the afternoon.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 90. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Saturday
Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 113. Light south southwest wind becoming west southwest 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 89. West southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south after midnight.
Sunday
A 10 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11am. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 110. South wind 5 to 10 mph.
Sunday Night
A 10 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 87. West southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
Monday
A 10 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 108. Breezy, with a south wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Monday Night
A 10 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 86. Breezy, with a west wind 5 to 15 mph becoming south after midnight.
Tuesday
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 108. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 87. West southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
Wednesday
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 107. West wind 5 to 10 mph.
Wednesday Night
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 86. West southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
Thursday
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 107. West southwest wind around 5 mph.
Click to expand...
 
Was cloudy last night after I went to bed I guess; Teddy got me up at 3am for poopy-patrol and it was completely overcast and warmer than it had been before that. Ended up 10 degrees more for a low (91F) than the night before, is already 102F not even 10am yet. Expected 113F high, probably hotter in reality.

Rain not expected back until Sunday at earliest, even then is only 10% chance. (probably of sprinkles)
 
Hawaii getting hammered by TS Darby, while must of the Continental US is still under the dome. Surf at the US Open in HB yesterday was decent but not spectacular. Chomper, the global warming tortoise, buried himself last week in advance to aviod the heat. (He's smarter than one would think, or his instincts kicked in). Hope he comes back out next week with forecast temperatures in the mid-seventies.

Tick the box for sea surface temps (SST) and for tropical forecast points.http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-ir2.html
An El Freako bulge of warmer water near the West Coast of the US could cause the storms to track to the North and West. :twisted: I'm hoping to see a Pacific tropical storm hit SoCali in my lifetime. The closest one to come near that I remember was TS Gwen in the seventies which stalled just SW of San Diego sending huge waves here. People began boarding up their windows along the coast as the storm neared.

http://gawker.com/these-insane-people-are-rowing-from-california-to-hawai-1589811885 :shock:
These people picked the wrong year to row to Hawaii from California IMHO.

And:

A look at current sea conditions there:

http://forecast.weather.gov/shmrn.php?mz=phz180&syn=phz105
 
As usual, clouds tease us from edge of valley, nothing over city. Still in the 110's F most days, sometiems dipping down to 108-109F. :/

Supposedly higher chances in next few days.


A friend has a weatherstation that tries to predict the next 12 hours or so, and it's pretty much always wrong, saying it is going to change to some other weather that is so unlikely to happen one might as well say it's impossible. :lol:

It's latest prediction:
12 Hour Forecast Mostly cloudy with little temperature change. Precipitation likely. Windy with possible wind shift to the W, NW, or N.
Click to expand...

It hasn't been more than just a teeny bit of cloud even at night, almost always totally clear, the last week and more, where this station is just a few miles from me (as well as where I am).



Here's it's present status page:

Phoenix S Of Christown
Current Conditions as of 12:44 PM Thursday, July 28, 2016
Station Summary Current Today's Highs Today's Lows
Outside Temp 107.7 F 107.7 F 12:42 PM 89.3 F 6:04 AM
Outside Humidity 23% 43% 5:48 AM 23% 11:58 AM
Inside Temp 84.0 F 84.0 F 12:42 PM 77.8 F 12:07 AM
Inside Humidity 33% 34% 6:21 AM 32% 12:02 AM
Heat Index 112.0 F 113.0 F 12:29 PM
Wind Chill 108.0 F 89.0 F 5:53 AM
Dew Point 63.0 F 67.0 F 8:20 AM 61.0 F 10:49 AM
Barometer 29.718" 29.792" 8:17 AM 29.672" 12:01 AM
Bar Trend Falling Slowly
Wind Speed 3 Mph 10 Mph 5:08 AM
Wind Direction WNW 292°
12 Hour Forecast Mostly cloudy with little temperature change. Precipitation likely. Windy with possible wind shift to the W, NW, or N.
Wind 2 Minute 10 Minute
Average Wind Speed 0.7 Mph 3.0 Mph
Wind Gust Speed 5.0 Mph
Click to expand...
 
Actual rain here in southern NM yesterday, as typical, one spot gets 2 inches, another .2 inches. My house .2 :roll: of course.

Driest July in my memory, .87 inches the entire month in my house rain gauge. 2-3 inches typical for july. Loving the new normal. :evil:
 
Been getting flash flooding on this side of the mountain. Alamogordo was a huge river as usual when rain comes even though the city spent millions to fix it.. :?
 
Clouds and humidity, still 100-105+ temps past 10-11am every day. No rain. Got some misty sprinkles a few days back, but that's all so far. Enough thunder and lighting to terryify Yogi almost every night, even though far enough away to just be little rumbles. :( Teddy still doesn't care about it; just gets jealous of Yogi being up in "her" spot by my head, where he "hides" during storms.


Rigth this minute there's storms and rain I can see north of here, but I would geuss it's at least 10-15 miles away. There had been a bbig storm pushing it's way up from the southeast, that should've been here by now, but the hot air dome over the valley seems t o be keeping it f rom reaching us a s usual.


Supposedly it's likely to have thunderstomrs and rain after noon today, but probably not where I am under this heat dome. Got my rain gear on the bike anyway, just in case. :)

Oh, and it FEELS like it's gonna rain all the time; my left hand and right ankle throb, and rest of my joints all hurt to one degree oranother.
 
FINALLY rained, starting in the late evening in southern/eastern valley, working it's way up toward us here, rained around my house about an hour before it started at work, maybe a bit more. Was pretty heavy clouds, almost looked like nighttime for a little bit even though the sun hadn't begun to set yet.

Didnt' rain as hard here as it did south a few miles--some people said you couldn't see the car past teh car n front of you when stoppeda t a light, and oculdn't see the trafficl ights themselves; people were just following those in front of them (and thus there were lots of collisions including people just driving right off the road). I don't get why they wouldn't all just stop and wait a few minutes for it to lighten up a little, rather than cause that kind of mess. :/ It's not like they had to actually get rained on or anything. :roll:


It's still drizzling out there, expected to rain heavily on and off thru the night, but all the rain promised for the rest of the week or so went away in the forecast. :(

This is the forecast as of last night:

Overnight
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 83. Light and variable wind becoming east southeast 5 to 10 mph.
Tuesday
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 102. South southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Tuesday Night
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 83. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming east northeast after midnight.
Wednesday
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 99. East northeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Wednesday Night
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 83. West wind around 5 mph becoming east northeast after midnight.
Thursday
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 104. Calm wind becoming south southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Thursday Night
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 84. West southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm after midnight.
Friday
A 10 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 106. Calm wind becoming south southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Friday Night
A 10 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 85. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm after midnight.
Saturday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 106. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 85. West southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 106. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 85. West wind around 5 mph becoming north after midnight.
Monday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 107. Calm wind becoming northwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Click to expand...

Then this is the new forecast tonight:


Tonight
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 11pm, then scattered showers and thunderstorms after 11pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Cloudy, with a low around 81. East southeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Wednesday
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 99. East southeast wind around 5 mph becoming west southwest in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night
A 10 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 85. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Thursday
Partly sunny, with a high near 104. Calm wind becoming south southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Thursday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 86. West southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 106. Calm wind becoming south southeast around 5 mph in the morning.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 87. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming east after midnight.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 108. East wind around 5 mph becoming south southwest in the afternoon.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 87. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming east southeast after midnight.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 109. East southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 85. West southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable after midnight.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 108. Calm wind becoming south southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 85. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light south after midnight.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 108. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Click to expand...
 
Drizzle stopped shortly after my post above, then sky cleared up for the most part, and appears to ahve stayed that way from then until at least now--it's sunny and hot and already 95F out there (out of the expected 100F high), at only 1030am. Feels more like 105F+ with the humidity, though, which is still well over 50%. :(

It did give us a bit more than 2" in this general end of the city; I pumped quite a while to drain the street puddle into the yard, so more than 5-6000 gallons. Would've been more but it had already been several hours after the big storm before I got off work to go home and start it, so much of the puddle had already leaked thru asphalt cracks into the ground (more than half, maybe 2/3 of it by the water marks on curbs).

The forecast has changed again, however, with a 50/50 chance of rain both today and tonight. I can see the clouds around the valley, but they havent' pushed over it yet. If they don't soon they probably won't until very late in the day, sunset-ish, cuz of the heat bubble. Since yesterday it was only 30% chance and today is 50%, it's still more likely to drench us good if it actually does get here.


Today
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 100. South wind around 10 mph becoming west in the afternoon. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tonight
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 85. West wind 5 to 10 mph. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Thursday
A 10 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 103. West southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
Thursday Night
A 10 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 85. West wind 5 to 10 mph.
Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 105. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 86. West southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 108. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 86. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm after midnight.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 109. West southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 85. West southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light after midnight.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 108. West wind 5 to 10 mph.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 85. West wind 5 to 10 mph.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 108. West wind 5 to 10 mph.
Click to expand...
 
Wish our rain could form a puddle. Downtown got it good the other day, but it just spit on us.

That's damn cool you can pump that puddle onto your yard. My yard is all sculpted to retain every drop that falls on my 1/3 acre, but a bit too steep here to get a puddle. it all runs down the street. We used to get some good rains here, but not for the last 6 years.

Here is a shot from the big one in 2009 taken from my high and dry driveway, showing the street and part of my foot lower gravel driveway. Takes a 2 inch in an hour rain to do this. We never seem to get much more than.25 inch per rain these days.

calico street looking south from 1709.JPG
 
@ Dogman what's your thoughts of the moisture in the Sierra Blanca area? You just rode your scooter through them. We've had forest fires, but not huge massive ones.
 
dogman dan said:
My yard is all sculpted to retain every drop that falls on my 1/3 acre, but a bit too steep here to get a puddle. it all runs down the street.
Click to expand...
You could make a "barrier" that you can toss out across the street, at an angle so it runs downhill into your yard, whenever it starts raining.

Just needs to be a big cavnas tube full of sand or whatever--probably several segments so that it's liftable by one person. Doesn't have to bbe tall, jus enough to have weigth enough to stay in place when cars drive over it, so perobabgly wider than tall by 3 or 4 x, and then wouldn't be much of a barrier to bikes either. :)



I'm just lucky here that I have the lowest corner with no drainage, so I eget the runoff from most of the streets north and west of me till they get to their next corners, though I think the ones south drain in that direction instead of mine.
 
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