Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

[Hillhater]

Irrespective of the source, ..i suspect the biggest money maker in the field of electricity generation currently,…is renewables. !

 

[Voltron]

You're right about that.

When things are cheaper to operate than before, companies tend to make more money.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/07/renewables-cheapest-energy-source/

"The cost of renewable technologies like wind and solar is falling significantly, according to a new report.
This is fuelling the rise of renewables as the world’s cheapest source of energy.
The cost of large-scale solar projects has plunged 85% in a decade."

 

[Hillhater]

You're right about that.

When things are cheaper to operate than before, companies tend to make more money.

..especially when the end PRICE of the product ( electricity) produced is greater than other technologies !
And the incentives, subsidies, tax breaks, etc, and priority market access, is taken into account .

 

[Voltron]

You're right again.

When you take into account how much the oil, gas and coal industries have made off of tax breaks, anti trust price fixing, fake shortages, covering up worker injuries like black lung, and passing the cost of environmental cleanup onto often impoverished communities, renewables do look even better as money makers, since there's lower actual overhead that's being hidden from the public.

Not dealing with cleanup costs for formerly pristine reefs, rainforests and oceans can really pad those executive bonuses.

 

[neptronix]

You're right again.

When you take into account how much the oil, gas and coal industries have made off of tax breaks, anti trust price fixing, fake shortages, covering up worker injuries like black lung, and passing the cost of environmental cleanup onto often impoverished communities, renewables do look even better as money makers, since there's lower actual overhead that's being hidden from the public.
oil-theft-1.jpgDeepwaterHorizon-CoastGuard-min-scaled.jpgimages (4).jpeg
Not dealing with cleanup costs for formerly pristine reefs, rainforests and oceans can really pad those executive bonuses.

Ya.. anyone interested in the truth would actually compare these things..
..in doing so, you'd probably find out that "traditional energy" is subsidized equally if not more.

..in 2021, the total estimated world total for subsidies is 440 billion dollars for that year.
https://www.iea.org/topics/energy-subsidies

^-- this does not include tax breaks for drilling and exploration, having the public pay for externalities, wars for oil, etc.
We're probably more in the 1 trillion dollars per year range when all factors are counted.

ref: https://www.iea.org/topics/energy-subsidies

 

[Hillhater]

..in 2021, the total estimated world total for subsidies is 440 billion dollars for that year.
https://www.iea.org/topics/energy-subsidies

ref: https://www.iea.org/topics/energy-subsidies

Hmm ? .. those are subsidies benefiting the end user, not the producer/suppliers or the industry !

It compares average end-user prices paid by consumers with reference prices that correspond to the full cost of supply. The price gap is the amount by which an end-use price falls short of the reference price and its existence indicates the presence of a subsidy.

And its interesting to note that in the “top 25” countries compiling the bulk of that $440 bn, there are NO “Western or European” countries … no USA, Germany, UK, France, Canada,etc etc..?
Basicly, they are all 2/3rd world nations who presumeably have decided to subsidise fuel/energy costs to their low paid citizens ?

 

[Voltron]

As it says right in that paper, they focused on end user subsidies.
They did a different paper on production subsidies.

"It does not, for example, capture subsidised research and development or subsidies for fossil fuel production. Estimated based on the price-gap approach therefore understate total fossil-fuel subsidies as well as their impact on economic efficiency and trade."

"Alongside these estimate of fossil-fuel consumption subsidies, the IEA also collaborates with the OECD to produce a joint estimate that includes measures that provide a benefit or preference for fossil-fuel production."

So both use and production of petroleum are heavily subsidized. Wasn't that one of your arguments about why renewables are bad vs fossil fuels?
Plus they didn't even touch on the environmental damage costs, and the health impact costs, and the bribes to compliant officials, just direct economic distortions.
It gets even worse as you calculate ALL the impacts those industries aren't paying for up front.

 

[Hillhater]

So both use and production of petroleum are heavily subsidized. Wasn't that one of your arguments about why renewables are bad vs fossil fuels?…..

No ! ..my ONLY argument as to why renewables (wind and solar in particular) are not just “bad” but totally unsuitable for a utility energy supply,…
….is that they are incapable of providing a reliable, controlable, economic , electricity supply.
…which will inevitably ( already is) force UP energy prices and consequently ALL costs for consumers, at the same time a causing many manufacturing and energy dependent businesses to either collapse economically or seek locations with lower energy costs ( China ?)
Whilst you wallow in all the downside of fossil fuels, Consider also ,that without them you and I , and much of society as we know it, would not exist !
Our predecessors would still be walking behind horse drawn ploughs and dying young before we were concieved !
Also these wind and solar facilities cannot be produced or operated without an ongoing supply of fossil fuels, oils, and associated products.
Your idealistic new energy source is dependant on the very fossil fuels you dispise.

 

[Voltron]

You say wallow in the downsides.
I say maybe you're turning a blind eye to to negative impacts, because you like your soft cushy modern life, and you won't give it up for anybody or anything.

Cheap energy moved people off the farm, but to what end?
Now they can toil here instead?

Mexico City

And didn't they use horse draw labor to build the first oil fields? And then transitioned away to the new energy source, just like they're doing now?
At least using oil to build clean energy for the future seems better than wasting it in jet skis and monster trucks.
Maybe if humans actually used it for productive things like ambulance and fire trucks instead wasting it, and the oils companies didn't lie about it long term effects to gullible people, there would be less to despise.

 

[Hillhater]

.

Cheap energy moved people off the farm, but to what end?
Now they can toil here instead?

But i thought you believe the renewables will make energy even cheaper ?
So by that logic… people will be in an even worse situation if renewables did become predominant !
…however, as with much of your thinking, that is not the way the world develops..
..energy availability provides oportunities andoptions for PEOPLE to make choices.
…it is not the source of the energy that is the problem, It is the humans that make wrong/poor choices , abuse their oportunities, etc

 

[speedmd]

Most fall victim to their antiquity.

 

[Hillhater]

You know full well that is the WHOLESALE cost..which are a small fraction of the retail price
…which bears NO resemblence to to actual cost the consumer has to pay.
(Also,.. i strongly suspect that those wind and solar figures do not include any costs for the storage essential to provide a continuous reliable utility supply !)

 

[speedmd]

Anyone see a trend? :lol:

 

[Hillhater]

Sure, i see a trend, …and a classic supply/ cost curve for a new technology...with costs bottoming out.
… ( your chart stopped 5 years ago !)
And please tell me where a consumer can actually buy new lithium storage batteries for $100 /kWh ?
…..or even at your 2018 price of $181 kWh ?

 

[speedmd]

As zero approaches, the curve will flatten. No surprise here. It is simple math. :lol:

Alibaba? https://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/Sungrow-9-6kwh-high-voltage-lfp_1600657606620.html?spm=a2700.pccps_detail.0.0.361a13a0DYssiG

One must certainly do diligence there.

 

[Voltron]

"And please tell me where a consumer can actually buy new lithium storage batteries for $100 /kWh ?"

I wonder where a consumer can buy a barrel of oil for $70?

 

[Hillhater]

Alibaba? https://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/Sungrow-9-6kwh-high-voltage-lfp_1600657606620.html?spm=a2700.pccps_detail.0.0.361a13a0DYssiG

One must certainly do diligence there.

Diligence needed for sure !
Whilst undoubtedly a attractive price ,..(if i ignore the shipping ?)..
Do the really look like NEW, UNUSED, batteries,? ….or maybe some salvaged/ QC rejected packs in a back street warehouse ?
Any genuine US sources ?…..something actually genuine ?
Tesla Powerwall ?..Megapack ?

 

[Hillhater]

"And please tell me where a consumer can actually buy new lithium storage batteries for $100 /kWh ?"

I wonder where a consumer can buy a barrel of oil for $70?

So are you agreeing that these “Media Fodder” prices ( Oil, Li Batteries , electricity generation, etc, etc, ) are totally unrepresentitive of the real world cost to the consumers ?
And so , back to the point of renewable (wind & solar) electricity prices.. what is the real price of a reliable 24/7 utility power supply if coal and gas are eliminated ?

 

[speedmd]

LOL HH. The whole retail mess is much like a two story whore house. Lots of F-king overhead. :lol: Hard to say how badly most will get screwed along the way. Trends are real and going in the right direction however. Also many new chemistries and formats still in development that show some impressive cost cutting potential for stationary apps.. Given the recent price drops in the listed LFP 12 volt packs, suggests something much better is on the horizon or the market is somewhat oversaturated with seconds.

Interesting one. https://www.aliexpress.us/item/3256804260678357.html?spm=a2g0o.store_pc_groupList.8148356.2.3c966ea2n6kXvm&pdp_npi=2%40dis%21USD%21US%20%241%2C575.00%21US%20%24960.75%21%21%21%21%21%402101e9d416757296866573498e13f8%2112000030094730504%21sh&gatewayAdapt=glo2usa&_randl_shipto=US

 

[TheBeastie]

Anyone see a trend? :lol:

It's easy enough to dig up charts that ended 5 years ago in 2018 and don't show the LAST 5 YEARS of where the prices are.. :lol:
I expected there to be a shortfall in metals for lithium cells that at least use nickel and or cobalt etc, as I see news in Australia of nickel mines shutting down all the time due to running out of easily minable ore, but then being reopened due to the price going up and making it viable again but at the cost of using nearly double the energy and processing materials to extract it.

Still I hope EVs take over, I am dubious of grid batteries becoming a major thing beyond showing just one single pixel high chart on ElectricityMap etc, unless there is a major battery breakthrough that uses even more plentiful materials.

I really like this thick juicy energy porn videos from this guy, but they still remind me of our 15yo ES "thread for battery breakthroughs", if you read some of the first pages of that thread of amazing claims they look just as believable as this guys new claims.
When watching videos like these I constantly just think "why can't they give a single cell to Adam Savage for him to test on his YouTube channel or someone else like him, even if the cell wasn't even rechargeable I would enjoy seeing a 18650 sized sell give out 100Wh's in discharge capacity etc... :wink:
Because unless they do something as simple and easy as that I pretty much see it as baloney/fraud.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cr_l7hG_Hx0

[youtube]Cr_l7hG_Hx0[/youtube]

 

[Hillhater]

Wind power makers suffer huge losses,and want to abandon major project
Note also the calls for even MORE SUBSIDIES !

Siemens Gamesa reported Thursday that it had lost a staggering $967 million during the three-month period from between October to December.”

General Electric renewables unit reported a loss of $2.2 billion in 2022….

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2023/02/wind_power_makers_suffer_huge_losses_want_to_abandon_major_project.html

 

[Voltron]

Is this media fodder?


"So are you agreeing that these “Media Fodder” prices ( Oil, Li Batteries , electricity generation, etc, etc, ) are totally unrepresentitive of the real world cost to the consumers"

 

[Hillhater]

??..You tell me ?
Is a company annual report “media fodder”,… or an official statement ?

 

[Voltron]

"American Thinker is a daily online magazine dealing with American politics from a politically conservative viewpoint.[1][2] It was founded in 2003 by attorney Ed Lasky, health-care consultant Richard Baehr, and sociologist Thomas Lifson, and initially became prominent in the lead-up to the 2008 U.S. Presidential election for its attacks on then-candidate Barack Obama.[3] The magazine has been described as a conservative blog.[4][5] The Southern Poverty Law Center has called the site "a not so thoughtful far-right online publication."[6]."

So official!

 

[speedmd]

American thinker? PORN! LOL

Here is a more recent trend chart from the lefty pub "bloomberg" https://www.energy-storage.news/bloombergnef-average-battery-pack-prices-to-drop-below-us100-kwh-by-2024-despite-near-term-spikes/

It's a year old, but talks about the spikes we are experiencing. For grid apps, be careful thinking that suitable pack costs are not tied to one specific chemistry. With the ramp of LFP and now sodium variants, the cost reductions should continue for some time IMO.