El Niño in the newz. Again.

[dogman dan]

Also in NM, along the Rio Grande, they were doing a survey of water use 30 years ago to determine farmers and cities use of water then, with the data to be used later on to decide how much water farmers and cities had a right to.

The result, farmers bought more land, and put in more pecan trees, drilled wells, and started pumping it dry using inefficient flood irrigation. My brother at a golf course was told to irrigate like mad to establish a bigger water right, and they greatly upgraded his well pump to keep his tank full. For years he'd watered the course very carefully to not dry out the whole university and leave them unable to flush a toilet.

Well, here it is 30 years later,,, we just had a severe 10 year drought which might return the minute El Nino ends. Those trees are now 30 years old, mature, and need about 12 acre feet a year to produce. (until they wise up and install drip)

But the water rights are now limited to 4 acre feet a year. They say pecans need 6 acre feet a year, but not 30-80 year old trees that are huge. They need double that 6 acre feet.

Hmm, how come those trees look fine on 4 acre feet a year? Well, cuz meters on wells can be reset of course. The small farmer can't afford to bribe the meter reader guy, or even upgrade a well pump, so his pecans all died. You see that all over the valley, 5 acre orchards died if the trees were too big.

Obviously sometime here, something has to give. But It won't be given by a piece of paper. To get the multi million dollar pecan farmers to give water it's going to take more than a meter reader that makes 10 bucks an hour. Those guys can buy him easy.

As for golf courses, since we don't eat it, they can water with grey water. Well, if anybody is willing to pump it back uphill to the course. The new course in town is "planned" to use grey water. But no plan seems to be happening to build a pipeline to it, about 10 miles from the new sewer facility. Meanwhile, three new city wells were dug to supply the new golf course. Three guesses what the golf course is being told. Water like hell to establish the water right? I bet it is! In the near future the city will need that water, but till then if they don't use it, they'll lose it. Crazy shit caused by the water laws.

 

[Dauntless]

So they're telling us the new water runoff system is going to be going right away, catching all this rainwater this year.

So where does the water come from in New Mexico? Ground water?

 

[dogman dan]

The only renewable source of water in NM is mostly from Colorado. Like the Colorado river, a great deal of the flow is from snowpack in Colorado. Another NM river, the Pecos, has it's origin entirely in NM, near Santa Fe. There are big mountains in NM, with tons of snow, but none of those snowpacks come close to the headwaters of the Rio Grande, in the Winumunuch wilderness, and Wolf Creek Pass.

Snowpack has been no better than 50% of average for more or less ten years now, excepting this year, which even with El Nino was still not up to average. Then other factors take part. The drought plus the pine beetle led to some huge fires, so the snowpack gets more sun and wind, and sublimates away rather than run down the stream.

Then there is some storm runoff in summer monsoon rains, sometimes significant amounts reach rivers, but it's not generally enough to run a city or a farm on. Or some basins like Tularosa, have no river.

That leaves groundwater. Two kinds of that. Fossil water is what many cities use. Deep wells, mining a very finite supply. The farms along the river also have shallower groundwater. That is essentially the Rio Grande rivers underground flow. Since the Rio Grande supply is so low, it is now shut off all but about 6-8 weeks a year. But the farmers have wells that tap that underground river, and as soon as the river flows the pumps start really cranking.

Right now, they are metered, and supposedly limited to 4 acre feet a year, combined surface allotment, and what they pump. But with a multi million dollar pecan crop at stake, I just can't imagine them thinking, "lets not adjust those meters" and pump the 12 feet that an orchard with 80 year old trees needs. Those trees are now 100 feet tall, and much more thirsty than a 20 foot tall young tree. They have deepened all their wells, leaving small 5 acre farms and household wells dry, unable to even get their 4 feet.

 

[LockH]

Re forest fires... meanwhile further up north Goggle Search news "alberta british columbia forest fires"

 

[dnmun]

Re forest fires... meanwhile further up north Goggle Search news "alberta british columbia forest fires"

we just had two low pressure systems roll down from alaska over the last week and provided rain for a lot of the west coast BC included, and some snow high up so that has knocked down the big fires now.

we had overnight lows at 50 and highs around 68 so the heat has broken. pulled out the electric blanket because it is down to 62 inside now. gotta close the windows now too.

they are saying this el nino is gonna be the biggest baddest we have seen because the huge heat bulge in the north pacific and the extreme loss of arctic sea ice and record high worldwide temperatures in the northern latitudes.

so the devastation in california could be immense from the mudslides and flooding. or the atmospheric river of moisture could be pushed south into mexico or north up here. nobody knows since we have never had this much heat to build from before.

 

[Doctorbass]

Damn El Nino !!!! this is the cause of the COLD weater we had and will have in Quebec ( east Canada).. the excess heat coming to the west side of the continent make us to loose our normal warm wind flow that bring NORMAL great temp here!

 

[dnmun]

the heat in the north pacific has continued and now is called the 'heat blob'. the blocking high associated with it on the coast of BC and alaska forces the jet stream so far north that it pushes the cold from north of siberia back down over the poles to the east coast. that is where the 'polar vortex' came from last winter and is predicted for the coming winter too. alaska was record warm last winter too.

there are 3 meteorological forces working now. the heat blob, the PDO, pacific decadal oscillation, and now the el nino which should keep the NW warm and dry as happens with the PDO. so the polar vortex could be amplified this winter with all 3 operating.

 

[dogman dan]

Thank god fall came to help tone down those fires. A few years ago it was our turn. 9 out of 10 of the best forest areas in my state burned, and burned hot. My favorite camp spot is now a hole 20 feet deep and 50 feet wide after rain came.

Too true, if we are finally getting a wetter than normal year here, people in other places are suffering as a result. Australia usually has a mega drought when we get El Nino.

I think globally weird weather is here, even if not actually warmer in some places. Coolest summer in 10 years for us.

To put "wet" in perspective, I'm thrilled that I measured 8 inches so far this year. For us a wet year is exactly what Oklahoma called the dust bowl. About 10 inches.

 

[Arlo1]

Damn El Nino !!!! this is the cause of the COLD weater we had and will have in Quebec ( east Canada).. the excess heat coming to the west side of the continent make us to loose our normal warm wind flow that bring NORMAL great temp here!

We are below average temps out here too...

http://www.theweathernetwork.com/14-day-weather-trend/canada/british-columbia/nanaimo

 

[dnmun]

we just had a record low high for yesterday. reached just 60oF, normal is 78. it is as though we had early fall, but the heat is coming back later this week.

 

[The fingers]

http://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2015/09/10/feds-upgrade-el-nino-to-strong-but-not-as-big-as-1997-98/ Yesterday, 100 degrees F & rain with lightning.
Feds Upgrade El Niño To Strong, But Not As Big As 1997-98

 

[dnmun]

you have to account for inflation. it would take a storm 46% stronger now because mud has dried out more and is now totally bare and exposed. so that accounts for something. you gotta have inflation though or the real estate market would collapse again.

 

[LockH]

http://news.yahoo.com/current-el-nino-third-strongest-expected-last-until-235030784.html

Washington (AFP) - The current El Nino phenomenon, a global weather pattern known to wreak havoc every few years, should last until spring and likely become one of the strongest on record, forecasters said Thursday.

That expected strength makes El Nino likely to peak in late fall or early winter and bring more precipitation than normal to the drought-stricken southwestern United States, the US Climate Prediction Center said.

"At this point it could be one of the three strongest El Ninos we have seen," Mike Halpert, deputy director of the center, told reporters.

Between June and August, average sea surface temperatures in affected regions were the third-warmest since record keeping began, the center said, behind 1987 and 1997.

"In any measure, 1997 was still stronger than we are seeing right now," said Halpert.

Forecasters placed the likelihood at 95 percent that this El Nino, in which warmer Pacific waters cause changes to global weather circulation, will last until spring.

And it placed the likelihood that the southwestern US states will see much-needed wetter-than-normal winters between 33 and 60 percent, depending on region.

But Halpert said the most reliable prediction they have regarding El Nino's impacts is that the Gulf of Mexico and bordering regions will have a wetter than normal winter.

"At this point we have fairly high probability for that," he said.

It is also expected to contribute to warmer than average temperatures in Alaska, Canada, and the northern, western and central United States.

Halpert noted that savings on heating bills would be welcome in places like North Dakota.

"El Nino actually is good for some parts of the country," he said. "They have done studies showing the US is one of the big winners economically regarding El Nino."

Due to its associated changes in sea surface temperatures, El Nino is expected to contribute to a below-normal hurricane season in the Atlantic and above-normal in the central and eastern Pacific.

 

[The fingers]

http://www.aol.com/article/2015/09/...-grid7|aol20-g|dl23|sec1_lnk3&pLid=-193109866 :?

 

[wineboyrider]

@Dogman actually we have the Tularosa River and other small streams, but no major river that flows through the Basin. Most farmers in the Tularosa Basin drip irrigate, because they have to.

 

[The fingers]

We're actually supposed to be getting .5 to 1.5 inches of rain here over the next couple of days, the first "winter" storm of the 2015/2016 El Nino season for the left coast.
A welcome break from the combined 100 F. weather and the high humidity of late.
http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/loopsat.php?wfo=sgx&area=nw&type=ir&size=4

 

[The fingers]

http://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/l...m-Southern-California-Forecast-327663391.htmlAuspicious start to the season, unless you get flooded out on your way to work. Most September rain since 1939. For a short video of the 1939 storm: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weath...ocks-shoppers-in-santiago-chile/4490596174001 Called "El Cordonazo" or The Lash of Saint Frances, must have been another El Nino back then. :?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1939_California_tropical_storm
Today's news is focused on the tsunami from the earthquake in Chile.http://ntwc.arh.noaa.gov/At 12-15 ft. elevation and 3 miles from the Pacific as the water rolls, a one half to one foot seismic sea wave is a story here.

 

[LockH]

"El Niño Could Turn Into Worst Nightmare For U.S Natural Gas Producers"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/el-ni-o-could-turn-154927927.html

Includes:

Last week we took a look at what an El Niño meant for the coming winter as WSI issued its winter weather outlook. WSI is predicting the strongest El Niño in 65 years, which ‘should drive warmer-than-normal temperatures across much of the northern U.S., as the polar jet stream weakens and lifts northward‘. Accordingly, WSI projects natural gas demand this winter to be 10% lower than the previous one.

 

[LockH]

El Nino set to strike again...

http://www.theweathernetwork.com/ne...bring-gusty-winds-and-heavy-rain-to-bc/58224/

 

[The fingers]

The Pineapple Express could supply surf for the West Coast. 8)

 

[fechter]

When's the last time Canada was hit by a hurricane?

 

[LockH]

When's the last time Canada was hit by a hurricane?

Hehe...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Canada_hurricanes

And we're lousy with tornadoes too.

 

[fechter]

Well, quite a few I see, but all on the east coast.
I should have qualified my question.

 

[LockH]

"Upcoming El Niño May Be As Wild As 1997 Event"
http://news.yahoo.com/upcoming-el-ni-o-may-wild-1997-event-115718256.html

" This baby is too big to fail"

The climate pattern is linked with snowy winters in the Northwestern United States and wet winters in the Southwest; drought in Southeast Asia and Australia typically accompany El Niño.

 

[The fingers]

http://abc7.com/news/possible-venomous-sea-snake-found-on-oxnard-beach/1037375/ Another result of the El Nino besides the recent local shark events (hammerheads and great whites).
Friday, October 16, 2015 07:06PM
OXNARD, Calif. (KABC) --
An Oxnard resident made a startling discovery as she walked along Silver Strand Beach Thursday afternoon.
She found a possibly venomous snake along the shore. It ended up washing back into the water, but not before she snapped a photo of it.
Another person reported seeing the snake along the shore Friday morning.
It's believed to be a yellow-bellied sea snake, and officials were investigating.