Why are there so few ICU beds?, page 17

[john61ct]

Here much closer to 100%, even in sparse outdoor contexts.

Hiking on a trail in the woods, Every other person I came across, maybe 15-20min apart was masked even though no one evergot within 20' of each other.

Turns out that was required by the local town in all its parks.

 

[sn0wchyld]

This doesn't address my point at all - if mask rates vary so much, and masks are 'a big part of it' then why such variant outcomes, that dont correlate with mask rates, suggesting a lack of any causal relationship?

?? You claimed that the US is seeing mask utilization "rates above 90%." That is untrue. Hence, your observation that the US is seeing higher infection rates even though we are seeing mask utilization rates above 90% is incorrect.

Further, masks are just one part of the formula. An important part, to be sure - but just one part. If you don't practice good hygiene, still go to bars and parties, and wear a poor/ill fitting mask - you are higher risk even if you wear a mask.

"They are a big part of it though."
Then again why such a poor correlation in otherwise 'similar' countries (relatively speaking)?

From Science Daily:

"There was a clear negative correlation between the awareness or general acceptance of wearing a face mask and its infection rates."

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/06/200624082657.htm

Alot of masks only reduce the droplet/aerosol rate by a few %... so it wouldn't take much in the way of poor behaviour/etiquette and fitment to negate/reverse this small gain.

Yes, you have to use a good mask and use it properly. (As is true with handwashing, distancing, staying home when you are sick etc.)

ok I see the issue RE USA:
EU areas have rates above 90%... US doesn't, but I was including this as another data point of infection rates not correlating with mask rates. My bad as i can see how it could be put better in hindsight.

and to quote your sited study:
"While, the authors acknowledge that face masks are seen as important in slowing the rise of COVID-19 infections, it is difficult to assess whether it is more effective than handwashing or social distancing alone."

Which is basically my point. Particularly as this study is somewhat old... back when the states were ~2M cases (june). Which is why I pointed to the current state of affairs through europe, and the vastly different rates of mask wearing having little correlation (much less causation) to infection/death rates.

And just so we're clear... im not claiming they're ineffective... I'm still wearing one in public fyi... just far from primary. Even if masks blocked 100% of the desease, a lack of hand cleaning allone would negate it where I am, because so many touch their masks and faces then touch dozens of surfaces around them with barely a second thought, or wear ill fitting masks, or low efficacy masks etc etc etc. And I suspect that these 'poor' behaviours are more common than not all over the world.

 

[Dauntless]

What in the world IS a 'Mask Utilization Rate?' A home of 10 people, it they all wear one is that 100%? What if one really IS mask and the others are bandana's, etc.? What ABOUT these people not wearing them on the trails?

And my guess is there's the law of diminishing returns here. The closer you get to 100%, the less important it becomes. But is it that wy from the beginning?

 

[goatman]

a "mask utilisation rate" keeps the peons looking at more bs data but more importantly, its a quick and accurate indicator of
when the politicians should pack their bags and flee.

example:
if politician wakes up, looks out window and sees no masks.
thats code red
no shower
grab bug-out bag
leave wife and kids behind
straight out the back door
over the neighbours fence and steal his car

 

[sn0wchyld]

What in the world IS a 'Mask Utilization Rate?' A home of 10 people, it they all wear one is that 100%? What if one really IS mask and the others are bandana's, etc.? What ABOUT these people not wearing them on the trails?

And my guess is there's the law of diminishing returns here. The closer you get to 100%, the less important it becomes. But is it that wy from the beginning?

much like a 'death form covid' definition, it varies by country on exactly how its defined, making cross border comparisons difficult... but yes otherwise your right. self reporting, surveys, observations.... all of the above... with a good/bad mask... who knows? I've voiced similar concerns at my work given they mandate the surgical mask, yet its one of the worst when it comes to efficacy, particularly for those with any facial hair, or any other thing (like a big nose) that makes fitment poor/ineffective. Hence my above points... mask wearing (community wide or individual) is only effective if both the masks are good enough to have an impact, and if the people wearing them are 'good enough' to not negate that impact with bad habits. Which is why im entirely unsurprised at the lack of correlation between mask rates and case rates (at least in the EU).

 

[markz]

We all know who bears responsibility for the pandemic virus.

I wonder, what happened to markz? It's literally a month since he posted on ES last time...

I am fine, I just got into an accident about 5 weeks ago and broke some bones, nothing serious. I am mobile now so I can hobble around.

 

[goatman]

We all know who bears responsibility for the pandemic virus.

I wonder, what happened to markz? It's literally a month since he posted on ES last time...

I am fine, I just got into an accident about 5 weeks ago and broke some bones, nothing serious. I am mobile now so I can hobble around.

any prosthetics?

 

[Dauntless]

. . . . broke some bones, nothing serious.

Dude, you been goosing the Naked Athena's at the riots and getting the jealous-can't-get-any Antifa's after you?

 

[JackFlorey]

I've voiced similar concerns at my work given they mandate the surgical mask, yet its one of the worst when it comes to efficacy, particularly for those with any facial hair, or any other thing (like a big nose) that makes fitment poor/ineffective.

Surgical masks have had a huge impact on reducing noscomial infection in operating rooms - so they certainly work to reduce sprea of infection.

 

[Skorohod]

I am fine, I just got into an accident about 5 weeks ago and broke some bones, nothing serious. I am mobile now so I can hobble around.

Yay! Get well soon!

 

[sn0wchyld]

I've voiced similar concerns at my work given they mandate the surgical mask, yet its one of the worst when it comes to efficacy, particularly for those with any facial hair, or any other thing (like a big nose) that makes fitment poor/ineffective.

Surgical masks have had a huge impact on reducing noscomial infection in operating rooms - so they certainly work to reduce sprea of infection.

At the risk of repeating myself... yes. With good etiquette, good fitment and good hand hygiene they CAN be. In practice in the general population, staying them all day in haphazard ways with no training... not so much. Such poor behavior can REVERSE any benefit...

Again... hence the poor correlation.

Again... actual efficacy vs potential efficacy.

 

[JackFlorey]

At the risk of repeating myself... yes. With good etiquette, good fitment and good hand hygiene they CAN be. In practice in the general population, staying them all day in haphazard ways with no training... not so much. Such poor behavior can REVERSE any benefit.

It might if it were bad enough. In studies of actual societies that use masks vs societies that do not use masks, mask use has shown a significant benefit. So that's in the real world.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7191274/

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/06/200612172200.htm

https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/10.1377/hlthaff.2020.00818

 

[Matt Gruber]

At the risk of repeating myself... yes. With good etiquette, good fitment and good hand hygiene they CAN be. In practice in the general population, staying them all day in haphazard ways with no training... not so much. Such poor behavior can REVERSE any benefit.

It might if it were bad enough. In studies of actual societies that use masks vs societies that do not use masks, mask use has shown a significant benefit. So that's in the real world.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7191274/

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/06/200612172200.htm

https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/10.1377/hlthaff.2020.00818

Jack
thanks for posting those links 8)
Reminds me of seat belts in 1970- had to prove they help

 

[JackFlorey]

thanks for posting those links 8)
Reminds me of seat belts in 1970- had to prove they help

Yep. And there was always the guy who had a friend who was "thrown clear" of the crash because he didn't have his seatbelt on, so why should he use something that is worse than useless and can kill him?

 

[john61ct]

That was my dad's line, he'd spent a lot of time around the 50's racetracks, so some validity there.

But really he just didn't like wearing them, and had psychological issues with authorities telling him what to do

 

[nicobie]

When I was 16 my cousin and best friend died in a car wreck. He was the only one of 5 in the car that was wearing a seat belt. The car flipped and his head got ground down. It wasn't the seat belt's fault. The Car was a chevy II hardtop that had it's top peeled off in the wreck. The car was basically an unsafe design.

RIP Bill

 

[LeftieBiker]

My Mom was badly injured in a crash in a Morris Minor when I was very young. After that my Father switched to driving Volvos, with their ahead of their time three point shoulder belts and fender crumple zones. I was taught at an early age to always put the seat belt on. I've been in several crashes, and the belt protected me in at least one or two of them. If it had been a simple lap belt, maybe not so much.

 

[Dauntless]

This doesn't address my point at all

Yeah, they don't want to address your point at all, they just want to make it up as they go.

Since you don't seem to, maybe you can explain the significance of this 'Partial Immunity' from some 5 strains of the common cold that are COVID related. All we get in the press is about your body will have some ability to fight it with antibodies that have some effect but can't do the full job. What does that mean, really? Just that each of the germies will be weakened but none actually die?

 

[sn0wchyld]

At the risk of repeating myself... yes. With good etiquette, good fitment and good hand hygiene they CAN be. In practice in the general population, staying them all day in haphazard ways with no training... not so much. Such poor behavior can REVERSE any benefit.

It might if it were bad enough. In studies of actual societies that use masks vs societies that do not use masks, mask use has shown a significant benefit. So that's in the real world.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7191274/

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/06/200612172200.htm

https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/10.1377/hlthaff.2020.00818

Jack
thanks for posting those links 8)
Reminds me of seat belts in 1970- had to prove they help

And once again I never said that they can't be effective.
Showing studies that at least in part ( i did not read every speed study, but the first few had this issue)
do not really represent the situation we are in can easily throw of the results, particularly when some of those results are close to the threshold of statistical significance iirc.
Specifically...
... participants received specific training on mask fitment, hand hygiene, etc.
... had follow-up checks and training to ensure this
... were living with a clearly infected person, ie constant reminder of immediate threat.
... done over shorter periods, a couple weeks not months.
... were aware of their participation in a study, ie larger incentive.
... do not isolate masks from other mitigation strategies like hand hygiene.
... there more but I read them a few days back before writhing this response.

Some of these issues (like training) are the exact issues I cited with the current system of mask wearing. I pointed to a lack of training, awareness, and adherence as being sources for why masks are having less effect than they could, and you are response is to point to studies that do not model or account for such variables.... but that specifically control for them to mitigate their influence on out comes. Nothing wrong with the studies doing this... just means it's only evidence of efficacy in a related scenario, not really the one we are in.

To use your analogy...
I point out that a number of people are wearing seatbelts incorrectly, and as a result their efficacy is being largely negated visa v improving safety in a crash
You point to tests and studies using seatbelts in the correct fashion as a 'counter' to my points...
I (now) respond saying once again that putting a seatbelt on behind you're back or around your neck may well make things worse than no belt at all...
... now you?

 

[sn0wchyld]

This doesn't address my point at all

Yeah, they don't want to address your point at all, they just want to make it up as they go.

Since you don't seem to, maybe you can explain the significance of this 'Partial Immunity' from some 5 strains of the common cold that are COVID related. All we get in the press is about your body will have some ability to fight it with antibodies that have some effect but can't do the full job. What does that mean, really? Just that each of the germies will be weakened but none actually die?

I don't know for sure but I suspect the mechanism is similar to how most vaccines work... they let the body develop the key for it to recognise the disease when it gets into your body and then how best to combat it... without infecting you with something that does as much harm .. a sufficiently similar disease gives your body a head start on the immune response, before the viral load can get beyond your bodies ability to keep it under control.

If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck then the fact that the one you contacted last month had black feathers rather than white doesn't stop your body from going 'oh it's a duck'.

 

[Dauntless]

If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck then the fact that the one you contacted last month had black feathers rather than white doesn't stop your body from going 'oh it's a duck'.

It does if it doesn't believe black ducks exist.

So the guy I once worked with was saying he'd seen the PBS show where they illustrated the immune system putting out antibodies that covered one buy not another, so he literally said it was the right shape an antibody worked on. I was trying to tell him I was sure that was just an representation, but he believed it. But what would not the quite right antibody do? Slow down the reproduction? Manage to kill some somehow?

 

[Matt Gruber]

Now that hospitals are full of customers the CDC can tell the truth- that masks help not just others, but the wearer too! I've been wearing masks for decades, so they didn't fool me. Mainly dust masks to keep me from sneezing when cutting the grass. Even loose it works good enough. virus is much smaller so it needs to fit tight. so trump got 72 million votes; judging from the rallies, i'd guess 68 million did not understand masks offer significant protection, and thousands got sick/maybe died as a result of lies from the CDC etc.

 

[Dauntless]

70% of people wear the masks and get 85% of Covid.

30% don't wear them and get 15% of Covid.

How does that work, exactly?

 

[markz]

^Depends on what they are doing.

Are they wearing a mask yet they are close together for hours on end. Like the scene behind trump during rallies when trumps feeling pro-covid precaution for good pr meanwhile the audience in front of Trumps like 20% wearing masks. Everyone needs to wear a mask or it doesnt work. The chanting puts airborne molecules into the air.
What mask are they wearing?
How are they wearing the mask, seen many people wearing mask under their nose.


CBC News had a good explaination of humidity and weather on water molecules in the air.
Warmer and more humid the particles fall
Colder and dry, particles stay in air longer.

 

[Matt Gruber]

months ago i had a nurse argue with me. she said she only wears a mask to protect other people, not herself. i asked her "how does the mask know who it is protecting?"
.
the health care system is corrupt. Why do some hospitals have a McDonalds inside the hospital?
MONEY - they get more business - the more heart disease, diabetes, etc, the better they do. JOBS JOBS JOBS the US is 18% health care. If everybody ate healthy food, 80% of health care workers get fired.
Only when the CDC sees hospitals over capacity do they tell you how to stay out. wear a mask.
.
dr greger explains about McD's
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8kMqFRd6kmA&ab_channel=NutritionFacts.org