El Niño in the newz. Again.

[The fingers]

National Weather Service​

Detailed Forecast​

This Afternoon
Sunny, with a high near 68. West wind around 5 mph.
Tonight
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph.
Friday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 69. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon.
Friday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph.
Saturday
A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 62. Light southwest wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Saturday Night
Rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 49. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Sunday
A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 58. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Sunday Night
Rain likely, mainly after 10pm. Cloudy, with a low around 48.
Monday
Rain. The rain could be heavy at times. Cloudy, with a high near 57.
Monday Night
Showers likely, mainly before 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 48.
Tuesday
A slight chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 62.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 46.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 66.

Jaccuweather says 49% today, nothing tomorrow, 80% Saturday, 91% Sunday, 25% Monday, 13% Tuesday and 6% on Wednesday.

Those oddball percentages even look wierd. I mean what’s with the 49, 91,13, and 6? More like Powerball numbers than a weather forecast.
Given Jaccuweather’s track record, I think that the odds-on favorite is the National Weather Service forecast.
Somebody that plays go buy a lottery ticket and tell us if you win.

 

[The fingers]

Jaccuthefreakaround must have read the above message and changed their chances to 0% tonight, 0% Friday, 80% Saturday, 25% Sunday, 91% Monday, 25% Tuesday, 13% Wednesday, 6% Thursday and 1% Friday.
Even though they revised the figures, the wonky percentages remain. Guess when they fixed it they still got it wrong.

Interesting company tidbits about Jaccuweather from wikipedia here:

AccuWeather - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Check out the cheezy studio photo of where they broadcast from.
You get the picture.

Even Apple Weather smokes ‘em.

 

[fechter]

They are calling it a "borderline" atmospheric river for my area over the next week or so. Looking for over 3" here. That area around southeast Texas and Louisiana is going to see some flooding...

 

[The fingers]

Beginning of a potential AR event forms N of the Hawaiian Islands in this satellite view:

GOES-West Full Disk - Sandwich - NOAA / NESDIS / STAR

Near real-time publication of GOES-East and GOES-West images from NOAA/NESDIS/STAR

www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov

 

[The fingers]

El Nino Rain Gage
Nothin'/Skunked-Foggy Doggy-Play Misty-Drizzle Corn-Light Showers-Steady Soaker-Bands/Sheets-Cats & Dogs
********************************************************************************

 

[The fingers]

A healthy 0.54” from the first wave of showers.

Followed by 0.16” after dark, so this evening’s grand total is 0.70”.
More on the way.

GOES-West CONUS - Band 14 - NOAA / NESDIS / STAR

Near real-time publication of GOES-East and GOES-West images from NOAA/NESDIS/STAR

www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov

Edit: Adding 0.17” overnight to the total, gives us 0.87” total.

 

[amberwolf]

Just pinkles here off and on all day so far. Not enough to show up in the neighbor's precip meter (maybe it's broken?), but enough to thoroughly dampen the ground and all exposed surfaces of everything out there, and drip off the roof, etc. I would guess it's at least a tenth of an inch, and possibly more like a quarter by now.

 

[The fingers]

0.34” additional rain this morning bringing the tab up to 1.21”.

 

[fechter]

About 1.5" here since Friday. More coming tonight.

 

[The fingers]

One of the prettiest AR satellite images I have ever seen

 

[The fingers]

Another 0.07” by 8pm making the total 1.28”

 

[The fingers]

This is an Atmospheric River, a good example of a real one. Not an imaginary sensationalized news story fodder version.

GOES-West CONUS - Sandwich - NOAA / NESDIS / STAR

Near real-time publication of GOES-East and GOES-West images from NOAA/NESDIS/STAR

www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov

 

[fechter]

3.1" here since Friday. Still raining.

 

[The fingers]

El Nino Rain Gage
Nothin'/Skunked-Foggy Doggy-Play Misty-Drizzle Corn-Light Showers-Steady Soaker-Bands/Sheets-Cats & Dogs
********************************************************************************************************************************************

 

[The fingers]

The heaviest rain so far has missed us by 15 miles to the north and to the south. This valley tends to have that effect on our microweather. The wind tends to swirl directing moisture to the surrounding higher elevations.

Riverside County

Los Angeles' source for breaking news and live streaming video online. Covering Los Angeles, Orange County and all of the greater Southern California area.

abc7.com

 

[The fingers]

Adding 0.65” this am making the storm total so far 1.93”

 

[The fingers]

In the news again. “Media parlance”

So Much For The 'Super El Niño.' What To Expect From CA's Winter Storms

Precipitation in California so far this season is only at about 66 percent of average, despite the hoopla surrounding "Super El Nino."

patch.com

 

[The fingers]

️⛈️⛈️
Cloudburst, lightning and thunderstorm.

 

[The fingers]

1.29” added by the last thunderstorm and showers, making the storm total 3.22”.

Highest one hour total was 0.63” during the thunderstorm.

 

[fechter]

My season total is around 16" so far. This time last year it was about 32". "Normal" for the year is around 35" here.

 

[amberwolf]

Despite the intense downpour while I was at work, and nearly continuous rain for much of the day, the neighbor's gauge only shows 0.38". No flash floods, some rushing-water gutters up to the sidewalk here and there, but mostly just wet streets with puddles in all the dips and holes.

 

[The fingers]

Weather Prediction Center

 

[The fingers]

Atmospheric Rivulet hosing Cali:

GOES-West CONUS - Band 13 - NOAA / NESDIS / STAR

Near real-time publication of GOES-East and GOES-West images from NOAA/NESDIS/STAR

www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov

 

[The fingers]

0.02” in the rain gage, only aware of it because I checked.

 

[The fingers]

GOES-West CONUS - Sandwich - NOAA / NESDIS / STAR

Near real-time publication of GOES-East and GOES-West images from NOAA/NESDIS/STAR

www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov

Rain riding up and over SoCali. No atmospheric river, no rotation. Warmer temps and offshore winds for 4-5 days.