Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

[TheBeastie]

A new report published today concludes that new nuclear build is the most efficient way to achieve decarbonisation of the electricity grid
https://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/New-nuclear-the-most-efficient-way-to-decarbonise

https://e2418dea-885f-4b73-9d8e-51a90019407d.filesusr.com/ugd/2bb616_9a378b1da90f47a5b609cd1a82b3655a.pdf?index=true

 

[sendler2112]

Ian Angus: "The deadly trio of ocean warming, loss of oxygen and acidification are all consequences of disrupting the global carbon cycle. Burning massive amounts of long-buried carbon has changed the ocean’s chemistry, heated the water and driven out oxygen. Those processes take place simultaneously and reinforce each other, making the ocean increasingly inhospitable, even deadly, for living things from microbes to whales. Worse, the deadly trio isn’t acting alone. Overfishing has wiped out many species, and it’s predicted that most wild fish populations will be 90% depleted by 2050. Pollutants, including tons of plastics that essentially last forever, are poisoning marine life from coastlines to the deepest trenches. Nitrogen fertilizer run-off has created a thousand or more dead zones in coastal waters and estuaries. Off-shore oil wells are leaking deadly hydrocarbons, and mining companies are preparing to dredge rare minerals from the deep sea floor, destroying some of the few remaining undamaged parts of Earth’s surface. A wholesale refashioning of the marine ecosystem is now underway. If business as usual continues, pervasive changes in the physical, chemical and biological boundary conditions of the sea will transform, irreversibly, and for the worse, the Earth and its oceans."
.
https://climateandcapitalism.com/2020/10/24/triple-crisis-in-the-anthropocene-ocean-part-three-the-heat-of-3-6-billion-atom-bombs/

 

[Cephalotus]

The nuclear "solution"?

Haha. The US already has lost its industrial capabilities to build new reactors:

Europe tries to build three reactors.

ALL of them so far have not produced a single kWh, are many years behind scedule and ALL of them are a financial nightmares.

 

[Hillhater]

From their own site..

CLIMATE & CAPITALISM is an ecosocialist journal, reflecting the viewpoint of ecological Marxism.

Nothing like a Marxist viewpoint to give a balanced view of the world !

 

[Cephalotus]

A new report published today concludes that new nuclear build is the most efficient way to achieve decarbonisation of the electricity grid
https://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/New-nuclear-the-most-efficient-way-to-decarbonise

They quote the cost estimation from:

https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ipcc_wg3_ar5_annex-iii.pdf

Which quotes the cost for utility PV at a median of 3.200USD/MW.

(source is quoted as "Solar Photovoltaic: IEA (2013a), IRENA (2013), JRC (2012), LBNL (2013), UK CCC (2011), US EIA (2013).")

This is 3-5 times higher than real costs of utility PV today.

So why do you think they have to use numbers from year 2012 that are wrong by factor 3-5 for solar?

I didn't look for anything else.

 

[sendler2112]

A new report published today concludes that new nuclear build is the most efficient way to achieve decarbonisation of the electricity grid
https://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/New-nuclear-the-most-efficient-way-to-decarbonise

They quote the cost estimation from:

https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ipcc_wg3_ar5_annex-iii.pdf

Which quotes the cost for utility PV at a median of 3.200USD/MW.

(source is quoted as "Solar Photovoltaic: IEA (2013a), IRENA (2013), JRC (2012), LBNL (2013), UK CCC (2011), US EIA (2013).")

This is 3-5 times higher than real costs of utility PV today.

So why do you think they have to use numbers from year 2012 that are wrong by factor 3-5 for solar?

I didn't look for anything else.

One of the newest solar farms in the USA is California Flats which was conscripted by Apple and completed in 2019 with a price tag of $848 million and a capacity of 280 MW. $3/ Watt and requires 2,900 acres.
.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Flats_Solar_Project
.
https://www.vox.com/2015/2/10/11558876/apple-to-build-848-million-solar-farm
.

 

[markz]

One of the newest solar farms in the USA is California Flats which was conscripted by Apple and completed in 2019 with a price tag of $848 million and a capacity of 280 MW. $3/ Watt and requires 2,900 acres.
.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Flats_Solar_Project
.
https://www.vox.com/2015/2/10/11558876/apple-to-build-848-million-solar-farm
.

Isnt that more of a PR stunt, yeah sure they built it but then they can say oh they are a "green" company yet it costs them a lot of money to have that going, but they can just point at it and please the environmentalists and the government can point at Apple and do the same thing.

What is their break even point in terms of years.

Edit: I'd hate to see the land tax bill for 2,900 acres of business.

 

[sendler2112]

The point is that solar farms are still running in the range of $3/ Watt in the USA when total project costs are considered.

 

[Hillhater]

Apple, did not build or finance the project, they have simply contracted to buy some of its output.
But yes, having their name associated with it gives them a warm and fuzzy green tinge !
And remember,..
A solar farm of 280 MW (nameplate) will only ever achieve 30-35% CF ..or in effect that means it is a 85-90MW equivalent capacity.
So its REAL cost is actually $9.4 /W
You should really compare these costs on a output performance MWh basis, or a “lifetime capacity” basis of $/TWh over the planned full lifespan, ... rather than bull5h1t “Nameplate” figures that the solar and wind industry like to front up with.

EDIT .. just to complete the picture..
Most Solar/Wind “farms” have considerable external cost implications also due to their particular requirements.
..usually they are located to optimise the Sun /Wind characteristics,..which often means a remote location necessitating extensive connector lines to the nearest Grid connection.
..utilities have learned that the unpredictable power from Solar and wind dictates the need for increased FCAS service equipment ..big batteries , Dynamic capacitor installations,..even back up generation capacity.
None of these costs are declared in the “proposal” or costing for the “farms”.

 

[TheBeastie]

This is 3-5 times higher than real costs of utility PV today.

If it's all so cheap then it doesn't require any subsidies... and private business should all over it without expecting taxpayer handouts...

But fact is they wouldn't touch it without subsidies.

It's all about using your horse sense, or basic smell test... When you include the basic smell test it's not cheap in the real world.
[youtube]TMyf6ewi7E8[/youtube]

 

[Cephalotus]

If it's all so cheap then it doesn't require any subsidies... and private business should all over it without expecting taxpayer handouts...

Price payed for electricity from Utility PV in Germany. This is in cloudy Germany with 1000kWh/kWp per year and it does not only include the cost, but also the Profit for the companies building them.

Obviously such electricity prices do require total investment costs of around 600-700€/kWp. It's cheaper in other parts of the world like India.

If you build large PV power plants for 3000USD/kWp in US it's obviously not a cost problem of PV technology.

Actually electricity Prices on the market is below 0.04€/kWh in Germany, so most large PV power plants still use that feed in tarrifs, but there are large power plants that do not Need any subsidies, für example:

Germany: https://www.handelsblatt.com/english/companies/profitable-renewables-germanys-biggest-solar-park-will-run-without-subsidies/23955174.html
Poland: https://www.rechargenews.com/transition/baywa-building-poland-s-biggest-solar-array-without-support/2-1-846746
Spain: https://www.pv-magazine.com/2018/12/31/baywa-r-e-completes-and-sells-175-mw-subsidy-free-spanish-pv-plant/

Hinkly C for comparison will get feed in tarifs of roughly 15ct/kWh (depending on inflation over the next 35 years) and it is still not profitable at that price. And so far it didn't produce a single kWh.

How Long do you want to wait für your "nuclear renaissance"? 30 yaers? 50 years? Do you beleive there is so much time left?

What happens if the next INES 7 accident hits Europe or the US. This will stop the technology again.

 

[JackFlorey]

If it's all so cheap then it doesn't require any subsidies...

It requires subsidies to compete with all the other subsidized forms of power. Oil? Depletion allowance subsidy. Nuclear? Price-Anderson subsidy. Coal? Tens of billions in direct subsidies; hundreds of billions in indirect subsidies (like LIFO accounting and the Domestic Manufacturing Deduction.)

So if you want to compete on a level playing field you'd have to subsidize solar as well.

What's that, you say? You don't like subsidies? Great! Let's end Price-Anderson, and the depletion allowance subsidy, and all the direct subsidies for coal, all the wars for oil, LIFO accounting, DMD deductions etc (there are about 40 of them) and let everyone compete on the same playing field. Pollution? End New Source Review nonsense and everyone meets the same BACT standard - period.

THEN let the market decide.

 

[ZeroEm]

Hopefully the US will cut out oil subsidies in the coming years!

 

[Dauntless]

A new report published today concludes that new nuclear build is the most efficient way to achieve decarbonisation of the electricity grid

Come on now, you know it's not the decarbonization we find fault with. is there any way you can give us green plants and trees that can absorb radiation? (Of course I'm hoping you'll say yes.)

 

[Hillhater]

.....This is in cloudy Germany with 1000kWh/kWp per year ............
.........
Obviously such electricity prices do require total investment costs of around 600-700€/kWp. .....
........
If you build large PV power plants for 3000USD/kWp in US it's obviously not a cost problem of PV technology.....

Can you explain what these units are ..(1000kWh/kWp per year,? ..3000USD/kWp ? )....and where they come from ?

 

[neptronix]

Hopefully the US will cut out oil subsidies in the coming years!

In the next 1-3 years we will see at least one company put lithium batteries with a significant drop in whr/$ and much higher density on the market. It may literally just be in Tesla's cars, but it's likely we'll see other suppliers offering something similar.

We won't be even talking about whether oil should be subsidized or not.. it will be more of a question of.. how are we going to generate all the electricity we need for these new cars everyone wants :]

 

[markz]

Hopefully the US will cut out oil subsidies in the coming years!

In the next 1-3 years we will see at least one company put lithium batteries with a significant drop in whr/$ and much higher density on the market. It may literally just be in Tesla's cars, but it's likely we'll see other suppliers offering something similar.

We won't be even talking about whether oil should be subsidized or not.. it will be more of a question of.. how are we going to generate all the electricity we need for these new cars everyone wants :]

At a reasonable cost for the consumer.

 

[Hillhater]

......
In the next 1-3 years we will see at least one company put lithium batteries with a significant drop in whr/$ and much higher density on the market. ........."

Hmm ?... we have been hearing similar forecasts for the last 10+ years....
.....I am not holding my breath for that day !

 

[JackFlorey]

......
In the next 1-3 years we will see at least one company put lithium batteries with a significant drop in whr/$ and much higher density on the market. ........."

Hmm ?... we have been hearing similar forecasts for the last 10+ years....
.....I am not holding my breath for that day !

Average lithium battery prices per kwh, via BNEF:

2013 $663
2019 $156

Energy density of li-ion cells in 2000: 400wh/l (from Journal of Solid State Electrochemistry 2017)
Energy density of Tesla 21700 cells: 700wh/l

You were saying?

 

[JackFlorey]

In the next 1-3 years we will see at least one company put lithium batteries with a significant drop in whr/$ and much higher density on the market. It may literally just be in Tesla's cars, but it's likely we'll see other suppliers offering something similar.

Yep. And most of those cells will come from used car packs. Tesla's new LiFePO4 batteries for their Chinese-market cars are designed for easier reuse, for example.

We won't be even talking about whether oil should be subsidized or not.. it will be more of a question of.. how are we going to generate all the electricity we need for these new cars everyone wants

And the answer will likely be solar because it's cheap and you can charge cars any time during the day that you want. And they make great parking-lot shade structures. The whole "intermittent" problem goes away because you're charging a battery, not supplying a fixed-time demand.

 

[Hillhater]

Average lithium battery prices per kwh, via BNEF:

2013 $663
2019 $156

Energy density of li-ion cells in 2000: 400wh/l (from Journal of Solid State Electrochemistry 2017)
Energy density of Tesla 21700 cells: 700wh/l

You were saying?

Show me where i can buy new lithium (lipo etc) for $156 /kWh ..( or less, if that is an average ?)
Then i will tell you where i was buying new lipo for <$400/kWh in 2013.
Energy density in 2010.. Tesla 18650....240 Wh/kg,... 725 Wh/l
Energy density of Tesla 2170 cell ..275 wh/kg ,....... 700Wh/l ?? (Your data.)
And the improvement is what ???

 

[Hillhater]

.......
And the answer will likely be solar because it's cheap and you can charge cars any time during the day that you want. And they make great parking-lot shade structures. The whole "intermittent" problem goes away because you're charging a battery, not supplying a fixed-time demand.

Except, .
..... say you only need to recharge 30kWh....you need ..
A large solar array 5+ kW ?.always.available just for you
Clear sky for the full day
No use for the car during those daylight hours
Live in an area where there is good sunlight ... good luck in NY /Boston etc in winter !

 

[JackFlorey]

..... say you only need to recharge 30kWh....you need ..
A large solar array 5+ kW ?.always.available just for you

Nope. You just need a large solar array that is shared among all the people parked in that parking lot.

Right down the road from me, over a school parking lot, is an 800kW solar power system/parking lot shade structure. Let's say you drive 10 miles each way to/from work. That means you need about 5kwhr a day. So that structure would support about 600 cars charging enough to cover their commute every day.

There are ~200 parking spots in that lot. So you have 3x the power you need. So even on a cloudy day you've got the power you need to charge the cars that are there.

Meanwhile, the system there already has inverters to supply the grid. So any excess goes right into the grid.

No use for the car during those daylight hours

Most people work - and the people who drive park their car at work during the day. They'd probably even prefer to park it under a shade to protect against sun/snow/rain.

Want to go out to lunch? No problem. You miss an hour of charging. There's plenty of excess capacity when you get back.

Live in an area where there is good sunlight ... good luck in NY /Boston etc in winter !

Boston in December gets an average of 3 hours equivalent direct sun a day. That's enough to charge 360 cars under that car shade structure I mention. And again there's only room for 200. Excess goes to the grid.

The transition to EV's is going to mean two things on the energy front:

1) One of the bigger loads on the grid will now be able to draw power when it's being generated, not at a specific time.
2) The waste stream from those cars will result in a huge amount of very cheap/free batteries for BESS.

 

[Hillhater]

Remind yourself Jack,...you live in a CA bubble, fantasy land effectively !
Most people do not work !....at least not in the simple 9-5, drive and park in the lot, type of working life.
And of those 9-5 rs , most either use public transport, park in multistory car parks, city side street, or suburban side streets near metro stations...none of which will ever be covered by pv panels.
A large number of “workers” work night shifts also, whilst others use their cars at work, sales, Taxis, Uber etc, tech service, etc etc
Meanwhile most cars are running kids to school, shopping, errands, holidays/ rentals , etc
So your..... 9-5, park under a solar shade all day....car owner is very much a minor portion of cars in use.
But none of this is even worth thinking about, until someone produces an EV that the MAJORITY of folk can afford

 

[ZeroEm]

by neptronix » Oct 26 2020 6:19pm

]ZeroEm wrote: ↑Oct 26 2020 2:56pm
Hopefully the US will cut out oil subsidies in the coming years!

In the next 1-3 years we will see at least one company put lithium batteries with a significant drop in whr/$ and much higher density on the market. It may literally just be in Tesla's cars, but it's likely we'll see other suppliers offering something similar.

We won't be even talking about whether oil should be subsidized or not.. it will be more of a question of.. how are we going to generate all the electricity we need for these new cars everyone wants :]

People will go with what is cheaper. The government has not been raising gas taxes to keep the roads fixed they sneak the funds from other areas to keep gas prices low then the Federal government pumps money in to the companies to keep profits up. If they quit supporting ICE and divert the same money to Electric you will see a move away from gasoline.