TESLA to Plans to Build World’s Biggest Battery Factory!

Does Musk’s Gigafactory Make Sense?
Tesla’s audacious plan to build a giant battery factory may mostly be a clever negotiating tactic...
... The project seems more puzzling in light of the hard times at other electric car battery factories in the United States. In 2009, President Obama announced an ambitious $2.4 billion grant program intended to launch an electric car battery industry in the United States. That effort, so far, has failed—factories were built, but sales have been poor because electric car sales have been slow. All of the battery makers involved have struggled (see “Too Many Battery Factories, Too Few Electric Cars”), and one, A123 Systems, went bankrupt....
... Whether the gigafactory is actually built, and whatever the final factory looks like, the way Musk has been promoting it may prove to be a savvy business move. Announcing the factory at an early stage, and with an ambitious size, could be good for negotiations with states, especially given the proposed size of the factory. Some states are even reconsidering laws that restrict how Tesla can sell cars in their state, which could help open new markets for the automaker...
... Proposing such a huge undertaking might also make it more likely that Panasonic or some other partner will later go along with a less ambitious plan—say, a factory to supply 100,000 cars. “Panasonic can’t afford to lose the business,” says Anderman.
Click to expand...
So, will Tesla build, yes or no? Just a "a savvy business move" or another SpaceX type endeavour the pundits said would fail and has been wildly successful?
 
Musk makes it happen. Too bad he has no use for our new spaceport. They did a few small early launches there, but now need a launch with ocean below it. They (space x) are said to be looking at South Texas near Brownsville. Drop the stages in the Gulf.

The latest news on TV is that they are down to two sites for the battery factory, but still won't say which ones. The plan is said to be that they will begin the process to build on two different sites simultaneously, and at some point choose one for the actual construction based on which site has been shat on the least by idiots in politics.

Given our wonderful New Mexico Governor, I guess it will be going to Nevada. :roll: She just took a nice big stinking dump on the powerline project intended to connect solar power to the grid in California.

She and Pierce call this "job creation". In the oil industry I guess.
 
On that article I'm not sure what MIT finds puzzling about a company shoring up the instability with supply. Normal PROPER business practice. In saying only so many batteries sold last year he's forgetting to compare that to the year before, the year before that. The real question is what demand will be in maybe 2020, when the factory would be getting near capacity. It's not going to get to runnning full steam overnight.

There's just so many meandering thoughts in that article: "Yet it’s not clear that a huge factory would deliver the needed cost reductions." He explains where more than half of what Musk claims he can accomplish comes from without even knowing the real plan, so he shoots himself in the foot on that one.

Getting in early, which no question it IS early in a battery evolution if there's going to be a solid, less expensive car cell, is going to be the best move. I just don't see where the article supports questioning if it's a good move.
 
I don't know, which is why I asked. Way out of my league of expertise (if I have any at all). Let's remember that 1> A123 was born out of MIT like the proverbial Athena from the forehead of Zeus, and 2> A123 did go bankrupt because demand for electric vehicles fell, so the demand for cells. Tesla's timing is better. But if I were an MIT god (they exist), knowing that the way the lab->business machine works is to kickback stock options to the University, its faculty and other players, I'd try to be a "savvy business operator" too, and try to position A123 as the key partner, knocking out Panasonic as the favored player. Meaning I'd write a whole slew of PR articles positioning my favorite son for the sacred marriage, pray the union was blessed by heaven, and hope for the birth of a google of healthy little li-ion cell babies.
 
Musk is no dummy for wanting to control his battery factory. Similar thinking to Ford in the early days. Better to plan on a price you can know, even if higher, rather than rely on a subcontractor to supply the quantity you need and the quality you want on time.

He walks in the door of that factory, he can give orders or pink slips. In china, it's" please sir, can I have some more?" China reply, "sure, we'll re ship those rejects you sent back."

That motley fool article was a good laugh. But the POV as an investor in Musk is quite different from the POV of Musk.
 
arkmundi said:
.... A123 did go bankrupt because demand for electric vehicles fell, so the demand for cells..
Click to expand...

A123 was a classic "technology driven" business, rather than the more likely successful ""Demand driven" business model.
They had insufficient sales contracts to ensure a sustainable business.
Whilst its true that the whole Tesla car business is more "technology driven" rather than demand from the market, the battery plant is firmly based on "demand" from the Tesla car business.
If course, if the Tesla car business plan fails, ( lack of demand ?) it will take down the whole pile of cards !
 
You cant have a Tesla in Texas? BS.

Btw in case you are not aware of it, we like ENERGY regardless of the type. We also like less governmental control at the moment so we can work.

Global warming beats cooling any day!
 
A bit off topic again, Yesterdays paper has a story about my Congressman being all pissed off because Obama is going to green light the power line by executive order. The pentagon want's the line stopped, but Obama is their CO. :) The fight is over routing it through part of the White Sands Missile Range, that is actually private land. That part of the range is very seldom used, and is not government property. They have to evacuate the people that live there to expand the range for some tests. So if they drop a rocket on the power line, they'll have to pay for it. Tough shit.

Anyway, looks like my Idiot Governor and Congressman can't stop the power line. 8) Once that line is built, it will be the only place in the Southwest ready to transmit huge amounts of solar power to LA. All along the route, through NM and AZ, you will see solar and wind farms popping up. :mrgreen: One of the main things slowing solar development, is lack of a power line with capacity to send that much power to LA on a hot afternoon.

Edit, now todays headline says Obama did not make the expected announcement yet. Come on Barak, get er done. Google SunZia to read about the project.
 
dogman said:
A bit off topic again, Yesterdays paper has a story about my Congressman being all pissed off because Obama is going to green light the power line by executive order. The pentagon want's the line stopped, but Obama is their CO. :) The fight is over routing it through part of the White Sands Missile Range, that is actually private land. That part of the range is very seldom used, and is not government property. They have to evacuate the people that live there to expand the range for some tests. So if they drop a rocket on the power line, they'll have to pay for it. Tough shit.

Anyway, looks like my Idiot Governor and Congressman can't stop the power line. 8) Once that line is built, it will be the only place in the Southwest ready to transmit huge amounts of solar power to LA. All along the route, through NM and AZ, you will see solar and wind farms popping up. :mrgreen: One of the main things slowing solar development, is lack of a power line with capacity to send that much power to LA on a hot afternoon.

Edit, now todays headline says Obama did not make the expected announcement yet. Come on Barak, get er done. Google SunZia to read about the project.
Click to expand...
Actually, I read that it is happening......... And +1 for Obama, but it shouldn't be him that decided it anyways. It might not be enough to lower the electric bills from shutting down the coal fired power power plants. And about Susana Martinez our governor I heard that the Democrats see her as a shoe in for reelection and won't spend any money to fund a candidate in the Democratic party. As a fierce independent it makes we want to throw up on both parties once again. We basically have a one party system in the United States. I won't vote for Susana, because Bill Richardson is more pro gun than she is....LOL
 
Rumors around here is its going here in Reno. They are asking about zoning, permits where they haven't been in other states.
I would have thought new mexico because of the workforce. I also read an article the other day that its between San Antonio and Reno.
Reno doesn't offer the best or highest number of qualified workers.
or can even support a giant influx of people.

It's crazy how I am reading that they are going to pick two states, start building in parallel then switch over to which ever state gets things done faster.
I'm also hearing they are going in Sacramento and they are just doing an elaborate bluff with the other states to get California to waive taxes/regs.
 
velias said:
It's crazy how I am reading that they are going to pick two states, start building in parallel then switch over to which ever state gets things done faster.
I'm also hearing they are going in Sacramento and they are just doing an elaborate bluff with the other states to get California to waive taxes/regs.
Click to expand...

Trying to push a state to 'Get er' dun' is the shape and wave of the future. All the foot dragging, arguing, there's the most important reason jobs go to China. A123 was saying from the start they WANTED to manufacture in the U.S., they just couldn't get it to happen full scale.

I don't think Elon is fool enough to build the battery plant in California. You move jobs AWAY from California, you don't bring them in. Wherever the battery plant goes, Tesla may soon follow.
 
Bet Reno is the final winner. But they will get us all hot and erect, then say they are saving it for marriage.

RE the solar powerline, Pierce said it was a done deal one day, then the next other sources say not quite yet. As we well know, Pierce is never confused about anything. :roll:

As for Susana, well, my county endured her for years as the district attorney. She botched a LOT of cases. Always over charging, not doing a plea deal, then not being able to convict on the higher charges. Often cases then thrown out for stupid paperwork mistakes. The idea is to make the plea deal, and put them away for 10 years easy. But they'd end up walking out free instead. Her management style is inefficient and incompetent.

Always some excuse why it's not her fault. You know the personality type. You know she's going to run for Vice President. Oh joy.
 
The proposal as is doesn't sound like it will be successful (due to lack of cell manufacturing experience and low margins).

But it makes you think. I mean what happened to all those a123 guys anyway? Perhaps Musk is going to lure them over and do a123 mk2.
 
dogman said:
Bet Reno is the final winner. But they will get us all hot and erect, then say they are saving it for marriage.
Click to expand...
Haaahaaa, in Nevada what with their prostitution, marriage isn't going to matter. Our economy is all well frocked in any case.
Architectonic said:
The proposal as is doesn't sound like it will be successful (due to lack of cell manufacturing experience and low margins). But it makes you think. I mean what happened to all those a123 guys anyway? Perhaps Musk is going to lure them over and do a123 mk2.
Click to expand...
All those "A123 guys" and gals are still there - no one was fired or let go, though there was some attrition. Everyone had confidence that they'd be pulled out of bankruptcy, and they were. As far as "workforce" is concerned, it'll be highly robotic, so not that many people are required. I'm sure they will not have much problem finding skilled people willing to sign on and relocate. The main resource question is water. Water for people to live, water for the factory. The West coast is still in a major drought that extends inland to the parts of the midwest. Nevada was desert anyway, but the could snowmelt from the rockies.

Jobs, gambling, prostitution, eternal sunshine in the PV era, hell I'm going to move now.
 
Hillhater said:
.???....the published figure was 6500 employees by 2017 :shock:
Even if only 10% of them are " Technology specialists". ... That is still a bunch of talent to find and relocate.
Click to expand...
Haahaaaa... sure lets expect the job estimates of those who will profit to be right on target.... haahaaa. I'm sure that's for the giga-factory as a whole, meaning jobs for Tesla corporate in CA and elsewhere, not only in the target state. And robots can be operated anywhere these days. On the floor in the winning bid state? No telling until it happens. Let's have a big meetup for the ribbon cutting ceremony and the factory tour. We can count 'em.
 
dogman said:
Bet Reno is the final winner. But they will get us all hot and erect, then say they are saving it for marriage.

RE the solar powerline, Pierce said it was a done deal one day, then the next other sources say not quite yet. As we well know, Pierce is never confused about anything. :roll:

As for Susana, well, my county endured her for years as the district attorney. She botched a LOT of cases. Always over charging, not doing a plea deal, then not being able to convict on the higher charges. Often cases then thrown out for stupid paperwork mistakes. The idea is to make the plea deal, and put them away for 10 years easy. But they'd end up walking out free instead. Her management style is inefficient and incompetent.

Always some excuse why it's not her fault. You know the personality type. You know she's going to run for Vice President. Oh joy.
Click to expand...
Yeah, it's not her fault this bloke spent 2 years in the slammer without a trial, and so no she's the governor! LOl

http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/01/25/10233835-man-spends-2-years-in-solitary-after-dwi-arrest
100% Right on the money. That's why I am never going to vote for her! LOL
 
Workforce could be why Tesla liked NM. Intel is winding down in Albuquerque. So a lot of people there with very high tech experience are ready to work. A friend of mine specializes in construction project engineering, and was just laid off by Intel.

Hope she gets hired.
 
wineboyrider said:
dogman said:
Yeah, it's not her fault this bloke spent 2 years in the slammer without a trial, and so no she's the governor! LOl

http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/01/25/10233835-man-spends-2-years-in-solitary-after-dwi-arrest
100% Right on the money. That's why I am never going to vote for her! LOL
Click to expand...
Click to expand...

Jesus, that's the type of stuff you hear happening in hell-holes. Two years - I'd be very surprised if he is still sane. $22 million isn't enough. That's the type of offence that needs multiples of that to set a proper example.
 
Well, at least it wasn't our governors fault. After all it happened while she was the DA, and the DA's office was the ones that forgot he existed and technically is responsible. So clearly not her fault.

But to be slightly fair, why didn't the boss of the jail call her up and say, "When the hell do you take this guy to a court hearing?"

My brother in law was in that same jail. When his 30 day sentence was done, they would not let him out because according to them, he never went in. They lost him. Took us another month to convince them that, yup, he was right there in their cell. He spent the whole two months in the drunk tank, because he wasn't there in the computer.
 
@Joseph C that's why Police and authority abuse here is so rampant, because they are relatively immune from prosecution. If at the very least they lost their job or had to pay for violating the peoples civil rights this kind of crap would probably never happen. Once, they arrest you it is you are guilty until proven innocent and if you don't have a friend or family to get you out of the slammer they will process you into their system. On a positive note the incarceration complex we have in this country is beginning to take it's toll on the public as the huge costs of jails is starting to take it's toll on the locals taxes...LOL
 
So you're saying if the plant is built in New Mexico, there'll be a bunch of batteries forgotten in some storeroom and they'll be trying to sell them when they're four years old. Sounds like New Mexico has that rasta 'Hey MON' laid back attitude. I guess Elon will love it there, but he's a bit frenetic, will they love him there?
 
arkmundi said:
Hillhater said:
.???....the published figure was 6500 employees by 2017 :shock:
Even if only 10% of them are " Technology specialists". ... That is still a bunch of talent to find and relocate.
Click to expand...
Haahaaaa... sure lets expect the job estimates of those who will profit to be right on target.... haahaaa. I'm sure that's for the giga-factory as a whole, meaning jobs for Tesla corporate in CA and elsewhere, not only in the target state. And robots can be operated anywhere these days. On the floor in the winning bid state? No telling until it happens. Let's have a big meetup for the ribbon cutting ceremony and the factory tour. We can count 'em.
Click to expand...

If you believe this proposal will happen , its costs, output, scale, etc,, why would you not accept the estimates of workforce needed ?
I wonder if you understand the proposed scale of this plant . ?
Remember its a raw material input to finished assembled pack facility,.. with its own power generation, services, and waste processing etc.
The problem with the most automated of manufacturing facilities is the skill levels of the maintenance crews needed to keep things running smoothly. for this scale of operation, that would be a huge number of "graduate" level educated employees.
You trade a semi skilled labor force for a super educated team of technicians and programmers which are 10 times harder to find and attract to a desert location
 
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